Early September polls: Presidential election victory for Higgins and potential for a Fine Gael landslide?

Adrian Kavanagh, 4th September 2011 The Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll, published on 4th September offers varying fortunes for the two government parties, amounting to very good news for Fine Gael but dismal fortunes for Labour. My constituency level analysis suggest Fine Gael would win a landslide victory based on these figures if they transpired in an…

Constituency-level analysis of June 22nd Irish Independent/Millward Brown Lansdowne opinion poll

Adrian Kavanagh, 22 June 2011 The latest edition of the Irish Independent-Millward Brown Lansdowne series of opinion polls almost mirrors last month’s Red C-Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll and offers very good news for Fine Gael whose support levels are seen to stand at 5-6% higher than the levels attained in February’s general election. Applying my constituency level…

Seat estimates for Irish Independent-Millward Brown Lansdowne and Paddy Power-Red C opinion polls, 23rd February

The Millward Brown Lansdowne opinion poll, published in the 23rd February edition of The Irish Independent estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 14%, Fine Gael 38%, Labour 20%, Green Party 1%, Sinn Fein 11%, Others 16%. Based solely on these poll figures, my uniform-swing constituency level analysis models seat estimates for the different parties/groupings as…

Poll of Polls with seat projections: Is Fianna Fáil support underestimated?

Eoin O’Malley (20 February, 2011) The three most recent polls by Red-C,  Millward Brown and Ipsos-mrbi in today’s Sunday Business Post and Sunday Independent and tomorrow’s Irish Times are broadly consistent and are also consistent with recent trends. Fine Gael’s position is solidifying (not surging) and Labour is slipping slightly (not falling). The Greens look unlikely to return…

Sunday 19th and Monday 20th February polls: Potential overall majority still on cards?

Adrian Kavanagh, 19th February 2011 The Red C opinion poll, published in the 20th February edition of The Sunday Business Post estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 16%, Fine Gael 39%, Labour 17%, Green Party 2%, Sinn Fein 12%, Others 14%. Based solely on these poll figures, my uniform-swing constituency level analysis models seat estimates for the different parties/groupings…