Adrian Kavanagh, 29th January 2011 A Sunday Independent/MBL poll, to be published in tomorrow’s Sunday Independent, estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 16%, Fine Gael 34%, Labour 24%, Sinn Fein 10%, Green Party 1%, Others 15%. Based on these figures, my constituency level analysis would estimate the number of seats that parties would win based…
Eoin O’Malley Now that Fianna Fáil has chosen Micheál Martin as leader a week before an election campaign, can he make much of an impact at this stage? Most research suggests leaders have a marginal effect.
Eoin O’Malley (25 January 2011) Last night Fianna Fáil selected two candidates to run in the four seat Dublin Central constituency. Given that the party polled less than 13 percent of the vote in the 2009 by election, and there are no reasons to believe its vote will have increased since then, this is a…
Eoin O’Malley (UPDATED 17 January, 2011) The fact that Cowen has pushed for a vote of confidence in his leadership would seem to indicate that he is secure that he has the numbers to win it. He has the advantage of having spent the previous three days canvassing support openly, whereas Micheál Martin was unable or unwilling to…
Some of the political correspondents writing over the last week are reading a great deal into every government minister’s’ utterance. Micheál Martin made an extremely banal comment when asked on Newstalk about the Cowen incident; “I think we all have to reflect in terms of how the conference was organised, in terms of communications issues and so on like…
by Michael Gallagher (16 June 2010) If FG asked the PSAI for its opinion on whether it should change its leader, would Irish political science be able to offer any evidence-backed advice? There are (as usual) arguments on both sides. Someone alternative such as Richard Bruton may be in some sense a ‘better’ leader
Irish Politics Forum 