Guest post by Dr Deirdre Tinney (independent researcher) and Dr Stephen Quinlan (GESIS Leibniz Institute, Mannheim) Immigration…Populism…Brexit…Trump… These words had become clarion calls by the end of 2016.
Opposition parties rarely win elections, governments lose them. Yesterday’s RedC poll for the Irish Sun seems to shows Fine Gael on its way to losing one. It is trending downward during the campaign. By now we were supposed to see voters considering government formation and moving back to the government. According to one Fine Gael…
Monday night’s leaders’ debate should put in the ground the idea that the left-right dimension is the key one in politics. On Monday we saw parties such as Renua (the right) and Social Democrats (centre-left) taking aim at what they saw as the enemy, not each other, but the ‘Establishment’. Similarly Gerry Adams tried to distance…
By Timothy J. White and Denis Marnane Assessing a significant anniversary of an important historical event such as commemorating 1916 is like a juggler keeping three balls in the air. There is the event itself, very likely not something about which there is consensus in terms of interpretation; there is the period of time between then…
Adrian Kavanagh, 16th August 2014 The latest in the series of Behaviour & Attitudes polls has brought good news for the Labour Party after a long period of dismal results in previous such opinion polls. The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll of August 16th 2014, estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll): Fine…
Adrian Kavanagh, 12th June 2014 (with subsequent updates) The local and European elections brought a (probably quite welcome!) respite to the spate of opinion polls that had appeared in the run up to the May 23rd electoral contests, but June 12th saw the publication of one of the first post-elections opinion polls – the Paddy Power-Red…
Posted by Eoin O’Malley, Dublin City University Parties are increasingly unpopular. The recently released European Social Survey (wave 6) shows parties are distrusted by 85% of Irish people (compared with parliament and the government distrusted by 75% and 77% respectively). Ireland isn’t that unusual; Most countries show a large majority lacking trust in parties. Danes,…
Adrian Kavanagh, first posted 28th April 2014, with later updates A series of opinion polls published in the weeks leading up to the May 23rd Local and European elections brought further bad news for the government parties, while offering very positive messages for the Independents and Others grouping and for Sinn Fein in the lead up to…
Adrian Kavanagh, 1st March 2014 March had come in like a lion for the three largest parties in the state but definitely did not go out like a lamb. The latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll saw Fianna Fail, Labour and Fine Gael all losing significant levels of support relative to the previous such poll while Sinn Fein and…
Adrian Kavanagh, 31st December 2013 During the past year (2013), I carried out constituency-level analyses of thirty four different national opinion polls in order to produce Dail-seat estimates based on those support levels. These analyses involved thirteen Red C (Sunday Business Post-Red C and Paddy Power-Red C) polls, twelve Sunday Independent-Millward Browne polls, four Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI polls and five Sunday…
Irish Politics Forum 