The headline stories from the results of last week’s Westminster election in Northern Ireland have been well aired. A setback for the DUP, treading water by SF, a revival by the SDLP and Alliance, the continued marginalisation of the UUP, and the near irrelevance of the other smaller parties. Closer inspection of the figures delivers…
Recent referendums in Ireland and the UK highlight stark differences regarding the place of the referendum as a political institution within the respective overall political systems, and also raise some questions about how a referendum outcome should be interpreted. The most obvious difference is the highly specified role of the referendum in the Irish political…
How many seats will Ireland have in the new European Parliament due to be elected in late May? If the UK has left the EU by then, Ireland will have 13 seats, but if not then only 11 will be elected with 2 others waiting on the subs’ bench until the first stage of the…
The long-anticipated referendum on repealing the 8th amendment, known by proponents and opponents alike at the time of its initial adoption as the ‘pro-life amendment’, has delivered a result widely and understandably described as ‘seismic’, ‘historic’ and ‘momentous’. In a high turnout (64%, second among standalone referendums only to the 1972 vote on EC entry…
By Michael Gallagher The expectation was that the same-sex marriage referendum would deliver a comfortable Yes and the vote on reducing the minimum age for the president an equally decisive No, and that’s just how it worked out. The latter achieved the distinction of delivering the lowest Yes vote (only 27 per cent) of any…
By Michael Gallagher In 2011, all the economic indicators had plummeted since the previous election in 2007, and it was no surprise that the government parties lost support heavily: their vote share declined by 29.7 percentage points and their seat total fell by 66 in a 166-member parliament. In 2016, by contrast, all the economic…
By Michael Gallagher Election campaigns feature extensive, some would say excessive, discussion of the horse-race aspects: in short, how many seats will the parties win? Until the votes are cast and counted, all we have to go on are the findings from opinion polls, and the challenge is to make accurate seat predictions from these.…
Amid the current sometimes fevered speculation over the date of the election to the 32nd Dáil, one constant refrain is that the timing of the election is the prerogative of the Taoiseach. Members of Fine Gael, while they might express a personal preference, are punctilious in adding that ‘of course’ it is entirely up to…
By Michael Gallagher The expectation was that the same-sex marriage referendum would deliver a comfortable Yes and the vote on reducing the minimum age for the president an equally decisive No, and that’s just how it worked out. The latter achieved the distinction of delivering the lowest Yes vote (only 27 per cent) of any…
By Michael Gallagher Most of the debate over the 4 October referendums has focused on the abolition of the Seanad, understandably enough, but there’s another referendum too: the 33rd amendment on the establishment of a Court of Appeal. Sometimes when there is more than one referendum on the same day, the ‘minor’ proposal is seen…
Irish Politics Forum 