This roundtable discussion is open to the public and will discuss the February 2016 election results. Contributors will provide an overview of main factors which influenced voting behaviour, will explore the campaign, evaluate the impact of the gender quota, assess the implications for government formation and deliver an evaluation of the long term consequences of the…
Adrian Kavanagh, 16th August 2014 The latest in the series of Behaviour & Attitudes polls has brought good news for the Labour Party after a long period of dismal results in previous such opinion polls. The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll of August 16th 2014, estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll): Fine…
Adrian Kavanagh, 12th June 2014 (with subsequent updates) The local and European elections brought a (probably quite welcome!) respite to the spate of opinion polls that had appeared in the run up to the May 23rd electoral contests, but June 12th saw the publication of one of the first post-elections opinion polls – the Paddy Power-Red…
Adrian Kavanagh, first posted 28th April 2014, with later updates A series of opinion polls published in the weeks leading up to the May 23rd Local and European elections brought further bad news for the government parties, while offering very positive messages for the Independents and Others grouping and for Sinn Fein in the lead up to…
Adrian Kavanagh, 1st March 2014 March had come in like a lion for the three largest parties in the state but definitely did not go out like a lamb. The latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll saw Fianna Fail, Labour and Fine Gael all losing significant levels of support relative to the previous such poll while Sinn Fein and…
The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (18th December 2011) points to a more than signficant dip in support for the government parties following the budger, with a notable recovery for Fianna Fail building on a strong showing in the Dublin West by-election and Sinn Fein occupying second place in the party rankings. With support levels and projected seat numbers…
Adrian Kavanagh, 7th January 2011 Ah a New Year dawns (Happy New Year btw folks) and brings with it a new poll and some more figures to be crunched. A Red C poll carried out for Paddy Power estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 14%, Fine Gael 35%, Labour 21%, Sinn Fein 14%, Green Party…
Adrian Kavanagh, 21 December 2010 – latest updates: 30 December 2010 As an alternative perspective to the opinion poll results that have been published over the past few weeks and my constituency-level models and analysis of these, Newstalk 106-108 FM this morning presented the findings of a prediction survey that was able to draw on…
Adrian Kavanagh, 18 December 2010 Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll December 20: FF 17 (NC), FG 34 (+1), Lab 23 (-4), Greens 2 (-1), SF 14 (+3), Others 10 (+2) On the basis of these figures, my constituency-level analysis of the poll estimates seat levels as follows: Fianna Fail 27, Fine Gael 66, Labour 46, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 15, Independents 12 (including 5 United…
Adrian Kavanagh, 15 December 2010 Irish Times Ipsos-MRBI opinion poll December 16: FF 17 (-7), FG 30 (+6), Lab 25 (-8), Greens 2 (NC), SF 15 (+7), Others 11 (+2) On the basis of these figures, my constituency-level analysis of the poll estimates seat levels as follows: Fianna Fail 26, Fine Gael 58, Labour 46, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 18, Others 18 (including 6 United…
Irish Politics Forum 