Red C Poll 27 June: How Do Figures Translate Into Seats?

Adrian Kavanagh (28 June 2010) The latest Red C poll points to a remarkably consistent trend in terms of support for the three largest parties – again underlining the significant “Gilmore Gale” increase in support for Labour but also highlighting the strenght of Fine Gael support. But how would these figures translate into seats should these…

Where bloweth the Gilmore Gale? Precedents from 1992 and 1969

Adrian Kavanagh (18 July 2010) Recent polls from RedC and Irish Times/Isbos-MRBI have focused significant attention on the Labour Party and point to significant gains being made by that party, as tantamount to a “Gilmore Gale”. But the extent to which these significant shifts in support levels towards the party can be translated into seat gains…

Fine Gael rurality key to Enda’s survival?

Adrian Kavanagh (17 June 2010) The geography of Fine Gael support offers some insight as to why Enda Kenny survived the challenge to his leadership today.  The party’s strength in rural, and especially western, parts of the state, relative to its weakness in Dublin, saw high numbers of Fine Gael TDs, MEPs and Senators being…

An Ireland Divided?

By Elaine Byrne Since 2007, the Irish Times and Sunday Business Post polls suggest that a fundamental shift in the Irish party system is occurring. Any analysis of electoral volatility often focuses on the left/right divide. But are we asking the wrong question? Is the ongoing earthquake within the Irish political landscape also because of…