Adrian Kavanagh, 19th February 2011
The Red C opinion poll, published in the 20th February edition of The Sunday Business Post estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 16%, Fine Gael 39%, Labour 17%, Green Party 2%, Sinn Fein 12%, Others 14%. Based solely on these poll figures, my uniform-swing constituency level analysis models seat estimates for the different parties/groupings as follows: Fianna Fail 25, Fine Gael 78, Labour 31, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 13, Others 19.
The Millward-Brown opinion poll, published in the 20th February edition of The Sunday Independent estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 16%, Fine Gael 37%, Labour 20%, Green Party 1%, Sinn Fein 12%, Others 14%. Based solely on these poll figures, my uniform-swing constituency level analysis models seat estimates for the different parties/groupings as follows: Fianna Fail 23, Fine Gael 75, Labour 36, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 13, Others 19.
The Ispos-MRBI opinion poll, published in the 21st February edition of The Irish Times estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 16%, Fine Gael 37%, Labour 19%, Green Party 2%, Sinn Fein 12%, Others 14%. Based solely on these poll figures, my uniform-swing constituency level analysis models seat estimates for the different parties/groupings as follows: Fianna Fail 26, Fine Gael 74, Labour 34, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 14, Others 18.
The relatively similar support levels recorded in these polls show the main trends during the campaign – Fine Gael support rising from the mid-30s to the high 30s, Labour support falling from the mid-20s to the low 20s/high teens, Fianna Fail remaining stagnant in the mid teens, with Sinn Fein dipping somewhat to the low teens from the Doherty Drive-high recorded in the wake of the Donegal South Wet by-election. The seat estimates show a minority Fine Gael administraiton, supported by “like minded” independents (of which roughly 7-10 could be elected depending on the poll figures being studied), to be now a realistic prospect, while the relative strenght of Sinn Fein and the mini-Fianna Fail resurgence post-the mid January low for the party seems to offer the main threat to potential Labour gains.
The constituency support estimates and seat guesstimates based on the Red C-Sunday Business Post are as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | GP | SF | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 21.3% | 49.0% | 18.2% | 3.9% | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 13.2% | 40.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 31.4% | 11.8% |
| Clare | 17.4% | 51.6% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 6.1% | 20.1% |
| Cork East | 13.5% | 40.8% | 32.5% | 1.2% | 10.9% | 1.0% |
| Cork North Central | 11.8% | 33.9% | 17.8% | 1.3% | 12.1% | 23.0% |
| Cork North West | 24.0% | 64.5% | 9.7% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cork South Central | 19.0% | 45.3% | 17.4% | 4.0% | 9.9% | 4.4% |
| Cork South West | 17.2% | 53.8% | 16.9% | 3.0% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| Donegal North East | 19.5% | 32.5% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 30.5% | 13.8% |
| Donegal South West | 20.2% | 34.1% | 4.9% | 0.7% | 38.1% | 2.1% |
| Dublin Central | 15.8% | 12.6% | 19.5% | 2.3% | 14.7% | 35.1% |
| Dublin Mid West | 14.4% | 31.1% | 20.8% | 5.2% | 18.2% | 10.2% |
| Dublin North | 18.0% | 22.2% | 17.9% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 29.0% |
| Dublin North Central | 16.2% | 34.9% | 11.7% | 2.1% | 6.3% | 28.7% |
| Dublin North East | 15.4% | 32.9% | 25.6% | 2.9% | 23.2% | 0.0% |
| Dublin North West | 18.7% | 14.1% | 33.9% | 1.2% | 27.1% | 5.1% |
| Dublin South | 19.2% | 47.0% | 21.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 0.7% |
| Dublin South Central | 10.9% | 17.5% | 30.2% | 2.1% | 15.0% | 24.4% |
| Dublin South East | 12.5% | 30.0% | 31.5% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 10.1% |
| Dublin South West | 13.7% | 26.0% | 30.5% | 1.4% | 19.1% | 9.3% |
| Dublin West | 12.7% | 25.6% | 25.2% | 1.4% | 7.3% | 27.7% |
| Dun Laoghaire | 13.4% | 33.7% | 26.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 18.9% |
| Galway East | 15.7% | 57.3% | 5.4% | 0.8% | 5.7% | 15.2% |
| Galway West | 13.5% | 27.4% | 17.5% | 2.2% | 4.8% | 34.6% |
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 10.1% | 38.6% | 15.3% | 0.7% | 29.6% | 5.6% |
| Kerry South | 13.8% | 31.6% | 20.0% | 0.7% | 5.4% | 28.6% |
| Kildare North | 14.2% | 28.3% | 27.3% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 24.3% |
| Kildare South | 23.1% | 29.2% | 41.4% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 3.1% |
| Laois-Offaly | 27.9% | 50.3% | 5.1% | 0.6% | 11.4% | 4.6% |
| Limerick City | 22.1% | 43.0% | 20.4% | 1.3% | 8.6% | 4.6% |
| Limerick | 21.2% | 66.6% | 11.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Longford-Westmeath | 16.2% | 45.1% | 30.2% | 0.8% | 6.9% | 0.9% |
| Louth | 16.6% | 42.9% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 26.6% | 1.9% |
| Mayo | 7.5% | 61.2% | 7.5% | 0.3% | 7.0% | 16.5% |
| Meath East | 16.5% | 36.4% | 19.7% | 1.3% | 6.7% | 19.4% |
| Meath West | 21.6% | 45.1% | 7.4% | 1.2% | 21.2% | 3.6% |
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 14.1% | 52.7% | 18.5% | 0.7% | 13.7% | 0.3% |
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 15.4% | 54.8% | 6.4% | 1.3% | 19.8% | 2.3% |
| Tipperary North | 10.1% | 17.4% | 13.2% | 0.4% | 5.0% | 53.9% |
| Tipperary South | 7.4% | 21.6% | 10.5% | 0.5% | 3.8% | 56.3% |
| Waterford | 17.7% | 38.6% | 18.8% | 0.9% | 11.5% | 12.5% |
| Wexford | 16.4% | 45.4% | 23.3% | 0.5% | 12.9% | 1.6% |
| Wicklow | 6.9% | 25.3% | 21.0% | 2.4% | 6.6% | 37.6% |
| STATE | 16.0% | 39.0% | 17.0% | 2.0% | 12.0% | 14.0% |
| FF | FG | LB | GP | SF | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Clare | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Cork East | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Cork North Central | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Cork South Central | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Cork South West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Donegal North East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Donegal South West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin Central | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin Mid West | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin North Central | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Dublin North East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South Central | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin South East | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Dublin South West | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dublin West | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dun Laoghaire | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Galway East | 1 | 3 | ||||
| Galway West | 2 | 1 | 2 | |||
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Kerry South | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Kildare North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Kildare South | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Laois-Offaly | 2 | 3 | ||||
| Limerick City | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Longford-Westmeath | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Louth | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Mayo | 4 | 1 | ||||
| Meath East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Meath West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Tipperary North | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Tipperary South | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Waterford | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Wexford | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Wicklow | 2 | 1 | 2 | |||
| STATE | 25 | 78 | 31 | 0 | 13 | 19 |
Constituency support estimates and party support guesstimates based on the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll are as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | GP | SF | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 21.6% | 47.1% | 21.7% | 2.0% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 13.5% | 39.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 32.1% | 12.1% |
| Clare | 18.0% | 50.6% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 6.3% | 20.7% |
| Cork East | 13.1% | 37.6% | 37.1% | 0.6% | 10.6% | 1.0% |
| Cork North Central | 11.8% | 31.9% | 20.8% | 0.6% | 12.1% | 22.8% |
| Cork North West | 24.6% | 62.7% | 11.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cork South Central | 19.3% | 43.5% | 20.7% | 2.0% | 10.0% | 4.5% |
| Cork South West | 17.4% | 51.7% | 20.2% | 1.5% | 9.3% | 0.0% |
| Donegal North East | 19.8% | 31.3% | 3.7% | 0.3% | 30.9% | 14.0% |
| Donegal South West | 20.4% | 32.7% | 5.8% | 0.3% | 38.6% | 2.2% |
| Dublin Central | 15.6% | 11.8% | 22.6% | 1.1% | 14.5% | 34.5% |
| Dublin Mid West | 14.5% | 29.7% | 24.6% | 2.6% | 18.3% | 10.3% |
| Dublin North | 18.3% | 21.5% | 21.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 29.6% |
| Dublin North Central | 16.4% | 33.4% | 13.9% | 1.1% | 6.3% | 29.0% |
| Dublin North East | 15.2% | 30.8% | 29.7% | 1.4% | 22.9% | 0.0% |
| Dublin North West | 17.9% | 12.8% | 38.1% | 0.6% | 25.8% | 4.8% |
| Dublin South | 19.5% | 45.2% | 25.2% | 2.9% | 6.4% | 0.8% |
| Dublin South Central | 10.5% | 16.1% | 34.4% | 1.0% | 14.5% | 23.6% |
| Dublin South East | 12.4% | 28.3% | 36.8% | 3.3% | 9.1% | 10.1% |
| Dublin South West | 13.3% | 23.9% | 34.7% | 0.7% | 18.5% | 9.0% |
| Dublin West | 12.4% | 23.7% | 29.0% | 0.7% | 7.1% | 27.1% |
| Dun Laoghaire | 13.3% | 31.5% | 31.2% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 18.6% |
| Galway East | 16.0% | 55.7% | 6.5% | 0.4% | 5.8% | 15.6% |
| Galway West | 13.4% | 25.9% | 20.4% | 1.1% | 4.8% | 34.4% |
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 10.1% | 36.5% | 18.0% | 0.3% | 29.5% | 5.6% |
| Kerry South | 13.6% | 29.5% | 23.1% | 0.3% | 5.3% | 28.2% |
| Kildare North | 13.9% | 26.2% | 31.4% | 1.0% | 3.8% | 23.7% |
| Kildare South | 22.2% | 26.6% | 46.7% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| Laois-Offaly | 28.5% | 48.7% | 6.2% | 0.3% | 11.6% | 4.7% |
| Limerick City | 21.9% | 40.5% | 23.9% | 0.7% | 8.5% | 4.5% |
| Limerick | 21.7% | 64.5% | 13.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Longford-Westmeath | 15.7% | 41.7% | 34.6% | 0.4% | 6.7% | 0.9% |
| Louth | 17.0% | 41.7% | 10.3% | 1.7% | 27.3% | 2.0% |
| Mayo | 7.7% | 59.2% | 9.0% | 0.1% | 7.1% | 16.8% |
| Meath East | 16.3% | 34.2% | 23.0% | 0.6% | 6.6% | 19.2% |
| Meath West | 21.9% | 43.4% | 8.8% | 0.6% | 21.6% | 3.7% |
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 14.1% | 49.9% | 21.7% | 0.4% | 13.7% | 0.3% |
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 15.8% | 53.2% | 7.7% | 0.6% | 20.3% | 2.3% |
| Tipperary North | 10.0% | 16.3% | 15.4% | 0.2% | 4.9% | 53.2% |
| Tipperary South | 7.3% | 20.4% | 12.3% | 0.2% | 3.8% | 56.0% |
| Waterford | 17.5% | 36.3% | 21.9% | 0.4% | 11.4% | 12.4% |
| Wexford | 16.1% | 42.4% | 27.0% | 0.2% | 12.7% | 1.6% |
| Wicklow | 6.9% | 23.8% | 24.5% | 1.2% | 6.5% | 37.2% |
| STATE | 16.0% | 37.0% | 20.0% | 1.0% | 12.0% | 14.0% |
| FF | FG | LB | GP | SF | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Clare | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Cork East | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Cork North Central | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Cork South Central | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Cork South West | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Donegal North East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Donegal South West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin Central | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin Mid West | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin North Central | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Dublin North East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South Central | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin South East | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Dublin South West | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dublin West | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dun Laoghaire | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Galway East | 1 | 3 | ||||
| Galway West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Kerry South | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Kildare North | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Kildare South | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Laois-Offaly | 2 | 3 | ||||
| Limerick City | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Longford-Westmeath | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Louth | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Mayo | 4 | 1 | ||||
| Meath East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Meath West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Tipperary North | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Tipperary South | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Waterford | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Wexford | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Wicklow | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| STATE | 23 | 75 | 36 | 0 | 13 | 19 |
Constituency support estimates and party support guesstimates based on the Irish Times-Ispos-MRBI poll are as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | GP | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 22% | 47% | 20% | 8% | 4% | 0% |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 14% | 39% | 2% | 32% | 1% | 12% |
| Clare | 18% | 50% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 20% |
| Cork East | 14% | 38% | 35% | 11% | 1% | 1% |
| Cork North Central | 12% | 32% | 19% | 12% | 1% | 23% |
| Cork North West | 25% | 62% | 11% | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| Cork South Central | 20% | 43% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 4% |
| Cork South West | 18% | 51% | 18% | 9% | 3% | 0% |
| Donegal North East | 20% | 31% | 10% | 31% | 1% | 7% |
| Donegal South West | 21% | 32% | 5% | 39% | 1% | 2% |
| Dublin Central | 16% | 12% | 21% | 15% | 2% | 34% |
| Dublin Mid West | 15% | 29% | 22% | 18% | 5% | 10% |
| Dublin North | 18% | 21% | 19% | 5% | 8% | 28% |
| Dublin North Central | 17% | 33% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 28% |
| Dublin North East | 16% | 31% | 27% | 23% | 3% | 0% |
| Dublin North West | 19% | 13% | 35% | 27% | 1% | 5% |
| Dublin South | 20% | 45% | 23% | 6% | 6% | 1% |
| Dublin South Central | 11% | 16% | 32% | 15% | 2% | 24% |
| Dublin South East | 13% | 28% | 33% | 9% | 7% | 10% |
| Dublin South West | 14% | 24% | 32% | 19% | 1% | 9% |
| Dublin West | 13% | 24% | 27% | 7% | 1% | 27% |
| Dun Laoghaire | 14% | 32% | 29% | 4% | 3% | 18% |
| Galway East | 15% | 59% | 5% | 5% | 1% | 14% |
| Galway West | 14% | 26% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 34% |
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 10% | 37% | 17% | 30% | 1% | 6% |
| Kerry South | 14% | 30% | 21% | 5% | 1% | 28% |
| Kildare North | 15% | 27% | 29% | 4% | 2% | 24% |
| Kildare South | 23% | 27% | 43% | 0% | 3% | 3% |
| Laois-Offaly | 29% | 48% | 6% | 12% | 1% | 5% |
| Limerick City | 23% | 41% | 22% | 9% | 1% | 4% |
| Limerick | 22% | 64% | 12% | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| Longford-Westmeath | 15% | 40% | 37% | 6% | 1% | 1% |
| Louth | 17% | 41% | 9% | 27% | 3% | 2% |
| Mayo | 9% | 71% | 10% | 9% | 0% | 0% |
| Meath East | 17% | 35% | 21% | 7% | 1% | 19% |
| Meath West | 22% | 43% | 8% | 22% | 1% | 4% |
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 15% | 50% | 19% | 14% | 1% | 1% |
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 16% | 53% | 7% | 20% | 1% | 2% |
| Tipperary North | 11% | 17% | 14% | 5% | 0% | 53% |
| Tipperary South | 8% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 0% | 56% |
| Waterford | 18% | 37% | 20% | 12% | 1% | 12% |
| Wexford | 17% | 43% | 25% | 13% | 1% | 2% |
| Wicklow | 7% | 24% | 23% | 7% | 2% | 37% |
| STATE | 16% | 37% | 19% | 12% | 2% | 14% |
| FF | FG | LB | SF | GP | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Clare | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Cork East | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Cork North Central | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Cork South Central | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Cork South West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Donegal North East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Donegal South West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin Central | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin Mid West | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin North Central | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South Central | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin South East | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Dublin South West | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dublin West | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dun Laoghaire | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Galway East | 1 | 3 | ||||
| Galway West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Kerry South | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Kildare North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Kildare South | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Laois-Offaly | 2 | 3 | ||||
| Limerick City | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Longford-Westmeath | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Louth | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Mayo | 4 | 1 | ||||
| Meath East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Meath West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Tipperary North | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Tipperary South | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Waterford | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Wexford | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Wicklow | 2 | 1 | 2 | |||
| STATE | 26 | 74 | 34 | 14 | 0 | 18 |
Irish Politics Forum 
I have the champayne ready for next weekend – I wonder what the Portillo Moment will be – will it be a seat loss or someone like Barry Cowen not getting elected.
Everyone in Fine Gael can feel rightly proud of all their hard work and it seems the gitters etc have probably turned out for the best as it gave the doubters a chance to vent their worries and Kenny the chance to prove them wrong and he is now centering a stage were he’s going to be one of the longest serving FG leaders and were he will be even more successful than FitzGerald and he may even go on to be one of the longest serving Taoiseach!
Yet, despite this he still has to put up with a sneering and condesending media narrative – albeit one that is slightly changing.
That majority would be a nightmare to control – then again a first term TD and especially those elected on the last counts or to the last seats should spend their first terms consolidating their seats and educating people to vote on national issues in national election.
Then again, when the new ministers take over the mind boggles at what hey’ll uncover in their departments – it will make GUBU look like child’s play.
Every single TD not in government should be given one policy task to deal with and reform.
This analysis is very good news for Fine Gael. They have run a much more organised and disciplined campaign than Labour. But more importantly, over the last week the public have been impressed by FG’s hard truths yet positive message compared to Labours desperation and scare tactics.
Liam
Why are you still giving Fine Gael only 1 seat in Meath East and an independent a seat instead????? Surely it would not be 2 FG and 1 LAB OR 2 FG and 1 FF
I a really am flabbergasted at some of your predictions….
MEATH EAST you continue to only give FG 1 seat and IND a seat????? surely not 2 FG and 1 LAB.
Also, You don’t give Pascal Donohue a seat even though you said to him on RTE Radio1 Late Debate that he would win a seat????
I agree with Desmond Fitzgearld, every NEW TD ACROSS PARTY LINES should be given a REFORM TASK to carry out, also there should be a TIME LIMIT for the satisfactory completion of the Task,,,,,,,,,,,say 100 DAYS, THE FINDINGS/RECOMMENDATIONS which should then be conveyed to the PUBLIC/ELECTORATE FOR CONSIDERATION. I too am worried about what is going to be UNEARTHED in the various DEPARTMENTS, that’s if the files haven’t gone “missing” in the meantime.
my overall view is some what optimistic for fine gael,even though im not voting for them,is that currently they are at around 37-38%..but as election day comes closer and as there trend was up 4-5% since 2 weeks ago..they should hit 40%..but in munster and connaught there vote will go to 45% in munster and 48% in connaught..in dublin they will hit 33% and take many seats…leinster fine gael will hit 42% here are my forecast gains munster gain 7seats,leinster gains 7seats,dublin 4 seats,connaught 6 seats…currently they have 52 seats 76 seats fine gael..
Just a quick word of thanks for the excellent analysis and commentary during the campaign. Well done to Adrian Kavanagh and the team.