Sunday 19th and Monday 20th February polls: Potential overall majority still on cards?

Adrian Kavanagh, 19th February 2011

The Red C opinion poll, published in the 20th February edition of The Sunday Business Post estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 16%, Fine Gael 39%, Labour 17%, Green Party 2%, Sinn Fein 12%, Others 14%. Based solely on these poll figures, my uniform-swing constituency level analysis models seat estimates for the different parties/groupings as follows: Fianna Fail 25, Fine Gael 78, Labour 31, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 13, Others 19.

The Millward-Brown opinion poll, published in the 20th February edition of The Sunday Independent estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 16%, Fine Gael 37%, Labour 20%, Green Party 1%, Sinn Fein 12%, Others 14%. Based solely on these poll figures, my uniform-swing constituency level analysis models seat estimates for the different parties/groupings as follows: Fianna Fail 23, Fine Gael 75, Labour 36, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 13, Others 19.

The Ispos-MRBI opinion poll, published in the 21st February edition of The Irish Times estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 16%, Fine Gael 37%, Labour 19%, Green Party 2%, Sinn Fein 12%, Others 14%. Based solely on these poll figures, my uniform-swing constituency level analysis models seat estimates for the different parties/groupings as follows: Fianna Fail 26, Fine Gael 74, Labour 34, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 14, Others 18.

The relatively similar support levels recorded in these polls show the main trends during the campaign – Fine Gael support rising from the mid-30s to the high 30s, Labour support falling from the mid-20s to the low 20s/high teens, Fianna Fail remaining stagnant in the mid teens, with Sinn Fein dipping somewhat to the low teens from the Doherty Drive-high recorded in the wake of the Donegal South Wet by-election. The seat estimates show a minority Fine Gael administraiton, supported by “like minded” independents (of which roughly 7-10 could be elected depending on the poll figures being studied), to be now a realistic prospect, while the relative strenght of Sinn Fein and the mini-Fianna Fail resurgence post-the mid January low for the party seems to offer the main threat to potential Labour gains.  

The constituency support estimates and seat guesstimates based on the Red C-Sunday Business Post are as follows:

  FF FG LB GP SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 21.3% 49.0% 18.2% 3.9% 7.6% 0.0%
Cavan-Monaghan 13.2% 40.4% 1.8% 1.4% 31.4% 11.8%
Clare 17.4% 51.6% 2.7% 2.2% 6.1% 20.1%
Cork East 13.5% 40.8% 32.5% 1.2% 10.9% 1.0%
Cork North Central 11.8% 33.9% 17.8% 1.3% 12.1% 23.0%
Cork North West 24.0% 64.5% 9.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Cork South Central 19.0% 45.3% 17.4% 4.0% 9.9% 4.4%
Cork South West 17.2% 53.8% 16.9% 3.0% 9.2% 0.0%
Donegal North East 19.5% 32.5% 3.1% 0.6% 30.5% 13.8%
Donegal South West 20.2% 34.1% 4.9% 0.7% 38.1% 2.1%
Dublin Central 15.8% 12.6% 19.5% 2.3% 14.7% 35.1%
Dublin Mid West 14.4% 31.1% 20.8% 5.2% 18.2% 10.2%
Dublin North 18.0% 22.2% 17.9% 7.9% 5.1% 29.0%
Dublin North Central 16.2% 34.9% 11.7% 2.1% 6.3% 28.7%
Dublin North East 15.4% 32.9% 25.6% 2.9% 23.2% 0.0%
Dublin North West 18.7% 14.1% 33.9% 1.2% 27.1% 5.1%
Dublin South 19.2% 47.0% 21.1% 5.7% 6.3% 0.7%
Dublin South Central 10.9% 17.5% 30.2% 2.1% 15.0% 24.4%
Dublin South East 12.5% 30.0% 31.5% 6.7% 9.2% 10.1%
Dublin South West 13.7% 26.0% 30.5% 1.4% 19.1% 9.3%
Dublin West 12.7% 25.6% 25.2% 1.4% 7.3% 27.7%
Dun Laoghaire 13.4% 33.7% 26.9% 3.3% 3.8% 18.9%
Galway East 15.7% 57.3% 5.4% 0.8% 5.7% 15.2%
Galway West 13.5% 27.4% 17.5% 2.2% 4.8% 34.6%
Kerry North-West Limerick 10.1% 38.6% 15.3% 0.7% 29.6% 5.6%
Kerry South 13.8% 31.6% 20.0% 0.7% 5.4% 28.6%
Kildare North 14.2% 28.3% 27.3% 2.0% 3.9% 24.3%
Kildare South 23.1% 29.2% 41.4% 3.1% 0.0% 3.1%
Laois-Offaly 27.9% 50.3% 5.1% 0.6% 11.4% 4.6%
Limerick City 22.1% 43.0% 20.4% 1.3% 8.6% 4.6%
Limerick    21.2% 66.6% 11.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Longford-Westmeath 16.2% 45.1% 30.2% 0.8% 6.9% 0.9%
Louth 16.6% 42.9% 8.6% 3.3% 26.6% 1.9%
Mayo 7.5% 61.2% 7.5% 0.3% 7.0% 16.5%
Meath East 16.5% 36.4% 19.7% 1.3% 6.7% 19.4%
Meath West 21.6% 45.1% 7.4% 1.2% 21.2% 3.6%
Roscommon-South Leitrim 14.1% 52.7% 18.5% 0.7% 13.7% 0.3%
Sligo-North Leitrim 15.4% 54.8% 6.4% 1.3% 19.8% 2.3%
Tipperary North 10.1% 17.4% 13.2% 0.4% 5.0% 53.9%
Tipperary South 7.4% 21.6% 10.5% 0.5% 3.8% 56.3%
Waterford 17.7% 38.6% 18.8% 0.9% 11.5% 12.5%
Wexford 16.4% 45.4% 23.3% 0.5% 12.9% 1.6%
Wicklow 6.9% 25.3% 21.0% 2.4% 6.6% 37.6%
STATE 16.0% 39.0% 17.0% 2.0% 12.0% 14.0%
             
  FF FG LB GP SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 1 3 1      
Cavan-Monaghan 1 2     2  
Clare 1 2       1
Cork East   2 2      
Cork North Central   2 1     1
Cork North West 1 2        
Cork South Central 1 3 1      
Cork South West 1 2        
Donegal North East 1 1     1  
Donegal South West 1 1     1  
Dublin Central 1   1   1 1
Dublin Mid West   2 1   1  
Dublin North 1 1 1     1
Dublin North Central   2       1
Dublin North East   1 1   1  
Dublin North West 1   1   1  
Dublin South 1 3 1      
Dublin South Central   1 2   1 1
Dublin South East   2 2      
Dublin South West   1 2   1  
Dublin West   2 1     1
Dun Laoghaire   2 1     1
Galway East 1 3        
Galway West   2 1     2
Kerry North-West Limerick   2     1  
Kerry South   1 1     1
Kildare North 1 1 1     1
Kildare South 1 1 1      
Laois-Offaly 2 3        
Limerick City 1 2 1      
Limerick    1 2        
Longford-Westmeath 1 2 1      
Louth 2 2     1  
Mayo   4       1
Meath East   1 1     1
Meath West 1 2        
Roscommon-South Leitrim   2 1      
Sligo-North Leitrim   2     1  
Tipperary North   1 1     1
Tipperary South   1       2
Waterford 1 2 1      
Wexford 1 3 1      
Wicklow   2 1     2
STATE 25 78 31 0 13 19

Constituency support estimates and party support guesstimates based on the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll are as follows:

  FF FG LB GP SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 21.6% 47.1% 21.7% 2.0% 7.7% 0.0%
Cavan-Monaghan 13.5% 39.3% 2.2% 0.7% 32.1% 12.1%
Clare 18.0% 50.6% 3.3% 1.1% 6.3% 20.7%
Cork East 13.1% 37.6% 37.1% 0.6% 10.6% 1.0%
Cork North Central 11.8% 31.9% 20.8% 0.6% 12.1% 22.8%
Cork North West 24.6% 62.7% 11.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Cork South Central 19.3% 43.5% 20.7% 2.0% 10.0% 4.5%
Cork South West 17.4% 51.7% 20.2% 1.5% 9.3% 0.0%
Donegal North East 19.8% 31.3% 3.7% 0.3% 30.9% 14.0%
Donegal South West 20.4% 32.7% 5.8% 0.3% 38.6% 2.2%
Dublin Central 15.6% 11.8% 22.6% 1.1% 14.5% 34.5%
Dublin Mid West 14.5% 29.7% 24.6% 2.6% 18.3% 10.3%
Dublin North 18.3% 21.5% 21.4% 4.0% 5.2% 29.6%
Dublin North Central 16.4% 33.4% 13.9% 1.1% 6.3% 29.0%
Dublin North East 15.2% 30.8% 29.7% 1.4% 22.9% 0.0%
Dublin North West 17.9% 12.8% 38.1% 0.6% 25.8% 4.8%
Dublin South 19.5% 45.2% 25.2% 2.9% 6.4% 0.8%
Dublin South Central 10.5% 16.1% 34.4% 1.0% 14.5% 23.6%
Dublin South East 12.4% 28.3% 36.8% 3.3% 9.1% 10.1%
Dublin South West 13.3% 23.9% 34.7% 0.7% 18.5% 9.0%
Dublin West 12.4% 23.7% 29.0% 0.7% 7.1% 27.1%
Dun Laoghaire 13.3% 31.5% 31.2% 1.6% 3.8% 18.6%
Galway East 16.0% 55.7% 6.5% 0.4% 5.8% 15.6%
Galway West 13.4% 25.9% 20.4% 1.1% 4.8% 34.4%
Kerry North-West Limerick 10.1% 36.5% 18.0% 0.3% 29.5% 5.6%
Kerry South 13.6% 29.5% 23.1% 0.3% 5.3% 28.2%
Kildare North 13.9% 26.2% 31.4% 1.0% 3.8% 23.7%
Kildare South 22.2% 26.6% 46.7% 1.5% 0.0% 3.0%
Laois-Offaly 28.5% 48.7% 6.2% 0.3% 11.6% 4.7%
Limerick City 21.9% 40.5% 23.9% 0.7% 8.5% 4.5%
Limerick    21.7% 64.5% 13.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Longford-Westmeath 15.7% 41.7% 34.6% 0.4% 6.7% 0.9%
Louth 17.0% 41.7% 10.3% 1.7% 27.3% 2.0%
Mayo 7.7% 59.2% 9.0% 0.1% 7.1% 16.8%
Meath East 16.3% 34.2% 23.0% 0.6% 6.6% 19.2%
Meath West 21.9% 43.4% 8.8% 0.6% 21.6% 3.7%
Roscommon-South Leitrim 14.1% 49.9% 21.7% 0.4% 13.7% 0.3%
Sligo-North Leitrim 15.8% 53.2% 7.7% 0.6% 20.3% 2.3%
Tipperary North 10.0% 16.3% 15.4% 0.2% 4.9% 53.2%
Tipperary South 7.3% 20.4% 12.3% 0.2% 3.8% 56.0%
Waterford 17.5% 36.3% 21.9% 0.4% 11.4% 12.4%
Wexford 16.1% 42.4% 27.0% 0.2% 12.7% 1.6%
Wicklow 6.9% 23.8% 24.5% 1.2% 6.5% 37.2%
STATE 16.0% 37.0% 20.0% 1.0% 12.0% 14.0%
             
  FF FG LB GP SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 1 3 1      
Cavan-Monaghan 1 2     2  
Clare 1 2       1
Cork East   2 2      
Cork North Central   2 1     1
Cork North West 1 2        
Cork South Central 1 3 1      
Cork South West   2 1      
Donegal North East 1 1     1  
Donegal South West 1 1     1  
Dublin Central 1   1   1 1
Dublin Mid West   2 1   1  
Dublin North 1 1 1     1
Dublin North Central   2       1
Dublin North East   1 1   1  
Dublin North West 1   1   1  
Dublin South 1 3 1      
Dublin South Central   1 2   1 1
Dublin South East   2 2      
Dublin South West   1 2   1  
Dublin West   1 2     1
Dun Laoghaire   2 1     1
Galway East 1 3        
Galway West 1 1 1     2
Kerry North-West Limerick   2     1  
Kerry South   1 1     1
Kildare North   1 2     1
Kildare South 1 1 1      
Laois-Offaly 2 3        
Limerick City 1 2 1      
Limerick    1 2        
Longford-Westmeath   2 2      
Louth 2 2     1  
Mayo   4       1
Meath East   1 1     1
Meath West 1 2        
Roscommon-South Leitrim   2 1      
Sligo-North Leitrim   2     1  
Tipperary North   1 1     1
Tipperary South   1       2
Waterford 1 2 1      
Wexford 1 3 1      
Wicklow   1 2     2
STATE 23 75 36 0 13 19

Constituency support estimates and party support guesstimates based on the Irish Times-Ispos-MRBI poll are as follows: 

  FF FG LB SF GP OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 22% 47% 20% 8% 4% 0%
Cavan-Monaghan 14% 39% 2% 32% 1% 12%
Clare 18% 50% 3% 6% 2% 20%
Cork East 14% 38% 35% 11% 1% 1%
Cork North Central 12% 32% 19% 12% 1% 23%
Cork North West 25% 62% 11% 0% 2% 0%
Cork South Central 20% 43% 19% 10% 4% 4%
Cork South West 18% 51% 18% 9% 3% 0%
Donegal North East 20% 31% 10% 31% 1% 7%
Donegal South West 21% 32% 5% 39% 1% 2%
Dublin Central 16% 12% 21% 15% 2% 34%
Dublin Mid West 15% 29% 22% 18% 5% 10%
Dublin North 18% 21% 19% 5% 8% 28%
Dublin North Central 17% 33% 13% 6% 2% 28%
Dublin North East 16% 31% 27% 23% 3% 0%
Dublin North West 19% 13% 35% 27% 1% 5%
Dublin South 20% 45% 23% 6% 6% 1%
Dublin South Central 11% 16% 32% 15% 2% 24%
Dublin South East 13% 28% 33% 9% 7% 10%
Dublin South West 14% 24% 32% 19% 1% 9%
Dublin West 13% 24% 27% 7% 1% 27%
Dun Laoghaire 14% 32% 29% 4% 3% 18%
Galway East 15% 59% 5% 5% 1% 14%
Galway West 14% 26% 19% 5% 2% 34%
Kerry North-West Limerick 10% 37% 17% 30% 1% 6%
Kerry South 14% 30% 21% 5% 1% 28%
Kildare North 15% 27% 29% 4% 2% 24%
Kildare South 23% 27% 43% 0% 3% 3%
Laois-Offaly 29% 48% 6% 12% 1% 5%
Limerick City 23% 41% 22% 9% 1% 4%
Limerick    22% 64% 12% 0% 1% 0%
Longford-Westmeath 15% 40% 37% 6% 1% 1%
Louth 17% 41% 9% 27% 3% 2%
Mayo 9% 71% 10% 9% 0% 0%
Meath East 17% 35% 21% 7% 1% 19%
Meath West 22% 43% 8% 22% 1% 4%
Roscommon-South Leitrim 15% 50% 19% 14% 1% 1%
Sligo-North Leitrim 16% 53% 7% 20% 1% 2%
Tipperary North 11% 17% 14% 5% 0% 53%
Tipperary South 8% 21% 11% 4% 0% 56%
Waterford 18% 37% 20% 12% 1% 12%
Wexford 17% 43% 25% 13% 1% 2%
Wicklow 7% 24% 23% 7% 2% 37%
STATE 16% 37% 19% 12% 2% 14%
             
  FF FG LB SF GP OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 1 3 1      
Cavan-Monaghan 1 2   2    
Clare 1 2       1
Cork East   2 2      
Cork North Central   2 1     1
Cork North West 1 2        
Cork South Central 1 3 1      
Cork South West 1 2        
Donegal North East 1 1   1    
Donegal South West 1 1   1    
Dublin Central 1   1 1   1
Dublin Mid West   2 1 1    
Dublin North 1 1 1     1
Dublin North Central 1 1       1
Dublin North East   1 1 1    
Dublin North West 1   1 1    
Dublin South 1 3 1      
Dublin South Central   1 2 1   1
Dublin South East   2 2      
Dublin South West   1 2 1    
Dublin West   1 2     1
Dun Laoghaire   2 1     1
Galway East 1 3        
Galway West 1 1 1     2
Kerry North-West Limerick   2   1    
Kerry South   1 1     1
Kildare North 1 1 1     1
Kildare South 1 1 1      
Laois-Offaly 2 3        
Limerick City 1 2 1      
Limerick    1 2        
Longford-Westmeath   2 2      
Louth 2 2   1    
Mayo   4 1      
Meath East   1 1     1
Meath West 1 1   1    
Roscommon-South Leitrim   2 1      
Sligo-North Leitrim   2   1    
Tipperary North   1 1     1
Tipperary South   1       2
Waterford 1 2 1      
Wexford 1 3 1      
Wicklow   2 1     2
STATE 26 74 34 14 0 18
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7 thoughts on “Sunday 19th and Monday 20th February polls: Potential overall majority still on cards?

  1. I have the champayne ready for next weekend – I wonder what the Portillo Moment will be – will it be a seat loss or someone like Barry Cowen not getting elected.

    Everyone in Fine Gael can feel rightly proud of all their hard work and it seems the gitters etc have probably turned out for the best as it gave the doubters a chance to vent their worries and Kenny the chance to prove them wrong and he is now centering a stage were he’s going to be one of the longest serving FG leaders and were he will be even more successful than FitzGerald and he may even go on to be one of the longest serving Taoiseach!

    Yet, despite this he still has to put up with a sneering and condesending media narrative – albeit one that is slightly changing.

    That majority would be a nightmare to control – then again a first term TD and especially those elected on the last counts or to the last seats should spend their first terms consolidating their seats and educating people to vote on national issues in national election.

    Then again, when the new ministers take over the mind boggles at what hey’ll uncover in their departments – it will make GUBU look like child’s play.

    Every single TD not in government should be given one policy task to deal with and reform.

  2. This analysis is very good news for Fine Gael. They have run a much more organised and disciplined campaign than Labour. But more importantly, over the last week the public have been impressed by FG’s hard truths yet positive message compared to Labours desperation and scare tactics.

    Liam

  3. Why are you still giving Fine Gael only 1 seat in Meath East and an independent a seat instead????? Surely it would not be 2 FG and 1 LAB OR 2 FG and 1 FF

  4. I a really am flabbergasted at some of your predictions….

    MEATH EAST you continue to only give FG 1 seat and IND a seat????? surely not 2 FG and 1 LAB.

    Also, You don’t give Pascal Donohue a seat even though you said to him on RTE Radio1 Late Debate that he would win a seat????

  5. I agree with Desmond Fitzgearld, every NEW TD ACROSS PARTY LINES should be given a REFORM TASK to carry out, also there should be a TIME LIMIT for the satisfactory completion of the Task,,,,,,,,,,,say 100 DAYS, THE FINDINGS/RECOMMENDATIONS which should then be conveyed to the PUBLIC/ELECTORATE FOR CONSIDERATION. I too am worried about what is going to be UNEARTHED in the various DEPARTMENTS, that’s if the files haven’t gone “missing” in the meantime.

  6. my overall view is some what optimistic for fine gael,even though im not voting for them,is that currently they are at around 37-38%..but as election day comes closer and as there trend was up 4-5% since 2 weeks ago..they should hit 40%..but in munster and connaught there vote will go to 45% in munster and 48% in connaught..in dublin they will hit 33% and take many seats…leinster fine gael will hit 42% here are my forecast gains munster gain 7seats,leinster gains 7seats,dublin 4 seats,connaught 6 seats…currently they have 52 seats 76 seats fine gael..

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