…but how come no one saw it coming?

The likely sharp uptick in support for Sinn Féin and the possible decline in support for both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael should pose a few questions for Irish political scientists, not least… Why did no one see the Sinn Féin rise come? The bad answer is that we’re not in the business of prediction.…

Early 2020 election predictions

Election 2020 has been called for February 8th. It’s a winter election, and called to preempt what would have been a likely government defeat in a confidence motion on minister for health, Simon Harris. The Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, hardly wanted to do his ‘Let’s take our case to the country!’ speech in the aftermath of…

A timely critique of Majority Voting system (by way of Book and Road Trip!)

(above book launch in Sarajevo) By Peter Emerson Just published, Majority Voting as a Catalyst of Populism (Springer, Heidelberg)  —  https://www.springer.com/gb/book/9783030202187  —  is a critique of binary decision-making.  Binary politics are everywhere: in the Dáil although there are better methodologies; in referendums as in Brexit, which was crazy; in Northern Ireland, where the very cause…