Adrian Kavanagh, 29th January 2011
A Sunday Independent/MBL poll, to be published in tomorrow’s Sunday Independent, estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 16%, Fine Gael 34%, Labour 24%, Sinn Fein 10%, Green Party 1%, Others 15%. Based on these figures, my constituency level analysis would estimate the number of seats that parties would win based on these levels of national support to be as follows: Fianna Fail 22, Fine Gael 67, Labour 45, Sinn Fein 12, Green Party 0, Others 20
Based on these poll figures, my analysis estimates constituency support levels for the different parties and groupings as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | GP | SF | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 21.7% | 43.6% | 26.2% | 2.0% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 14.6% | 38.9% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 28.9% | 14.0% |
| Clare | 18.5% | 47.9% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 5.4% | 22.9% |
| Cork East | 12.8% | 33.6% | 43.4% | 0.5% | 8.6% | 1.0% |
| Cork North Central | 11.6% | 29.0% | 24.7% | 0.6% | 9.9% | 24.2% |
| Cork North West | 25.3% | 59.3% | 14.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cork South Central | 19.4% | 40.3% | 25.0% | 2.0% | 8.4% | 4.8% |
| Cork South West | 17.7% | 48.3% | 24.6% | 1.5% | 7.9% | 0.0% |
| Donegal North East | 21.0% | 30.5% | 13.4% | 0.3% | 27.3% | 7.6% |
| Donegal South West | 22.2% | 32.6% | 7.5% | 0.4% | 34.8% | 2.5% |
| Dublin Central | 15.0% | 10.4% | 26.2% | 1.1% | 11.6% | 35.7% |
| Dublin Mid West | 14.5% | 27.2% | 29.5% | 2.6% | 15.2% | 11.0% |
| Dublin North | 17.6% | 19.0% | 24.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 30.5% |
| Dublin North Central | 16.2% | 30.4% | 16.5% | 1.1% | 5.2% | 30.7% |
| Dublin North East | 15.2% | 28.4% | 35.8% | 1.4% | 19.1% | 0.0% |
| Dublin North West | 17.4% | 11.5% | 44.5% | 0.5% | 21.0% | 5.0% |
| Dublin South | 19.4% | 41.4% | 30.2% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 0.8% |
| Dublin South Central | 10.0% | 14.1% | 39.4% | 1.0% | 11.5% | 24.1% |
| Dublin South East | 11.9% | 24.9% | 42.4% | 3.2% | 7.3% | 10.3% |
| Dublin South West | 13.0% | 21.4% | 40.6% | 0.7% | 15.0% | 9.4% |
| Dublin West | 11.8% | 20.9% | 33.2% | 0.7% | 5.7% | 27.7% |
| Dun Laoghaire | 12.7% | 27.7% | 35.9% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 19.1% |
| Galway East | 16.6% | 52.8% | 8.0% | 0.4% | 5.0% | 17.2% |
| Galway West | 12.9% | 22.9% | 23.7% | 1.1% | 3.8% | 35.6% |
| Kerry North-W Limerick | 10.5% | 34.9% | 22.5% | 0.4% | 25.6% | 6.2% |
| Kerry South | 13.1% | 26.2% | 26.8% | 0.3% | 4.3% | 29.2% |
| Kildare North | 13.2% | 22.9% | 35.8% | 0.9% | 3.0% | 24.2% |
| Kildare South | 20.7% | 22.8% | 52.2% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| Laois-Offaly | 29.8% | 46.7% | 7.7% | 0.3% | 10.1% | 5.3% |
| Limerick City | 21.9% | 37.0% | 28.5% | 0.7% | 7.1% | 4.8% |
| Limerick | 22.2% | 60.8% | 16.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Longford-Westmeath | 15.4% | 37.4% | 40.6% | 0.4% | 5.4% | 0.9% |
| Louth | 18.1% | 40.7% | 13.1% | 1.8% | 24.1% | 2.2% |
| Mayo | 12.9% | 65.9% | 13.8% | 0.2% | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| Meath East | 16.0% | 30.8% | 27.0% | 0.6% | 5.4% | 20.2% |
| Meath West | 23.1% | 42.1% | 11.1% | 0.6% | 18.9% | 4.1% |
| Roscommon-S Leitrim | 14.4% | 46.8% | 26.5% | 0.4% | 11.6% | 0.3% |
| Sligo-N Leitrim | 16.8% | 52.0% | 9.8% | 0.7% | 18.0% | 2.7% |
| Tipperary North | 9.6% | 14.3% | 17.6% | 0.2% | 3.9% | 54.4% |
| Tipperary South | 7.0% | 18.0% | 14.2% | 0.2% | 3.0% | 57.6% |
| Waterford | 17.5% | 33.2% | 26.2% | 0.4% | 9.4% | 13.2% |
| Wexford | 16.1% | 39.0% | 32.4% | 0.2% | 10.6% | 1.7% |
| Wicklow | 6.6% | 20.9% | 28.1% | 1.1% | 5.2% | 38.1% |
| STATE | 16.0% | 34.0% | 24.0% | 1.0% | 10.0% | 15.0% |
Based on these constituency estimates of support, seat levels may be guesstimated as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | GP | SF | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Clare | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Cork East | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Cork North Central | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Cork South Central | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Cork South West | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Donegal North East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Donegal South West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin Central | 1 | 1 | 2 | |||
| Dublin Mid West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin North Central | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North West | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Dublin South | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Dublin South Central | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South East | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Dublin South West | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dublin West | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dun Laoghaire | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Galway East | 3 | 1 | ||||
| Galway West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||
| Kerry North-W Limerick | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Kerry South | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Kildare North | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Kildare South | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Laois-Offaly | 2 | 3 | ||||
| Limerick City | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Longford-Westmeath | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Louth | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Mayo | 4 | 1 | ||||
| Meath East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Meath West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Roscommon-S Leitrim | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Sligo-N Leitrim | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Tipperary North | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Tipperary South | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Waterford | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Wexford | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Wicklow | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| STATE | 22 | 67 | 45 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
…and the following are seat levels for different coalition options (with Dail majorities offered for options that pass the magic 83 seat mark!):
| Fine Gael/Labour | 112 | 58 |
| Fine Gael/Right Independent | 76 | |
| Fine Gael/Fianna Fail | 89 | 12 |
| Fianna Fail/Labour | 67 | |
| Fianna Fail/Labour/Sinn Fein | 79 | |
| Left Coalition | 66 | |
| Fine Gael/Green Party | 67 | |
| Fine Gael/Independent/Green | 76 |
Irish Politics Forum 
Agreed with Eoin. Also change the figs for Dublin South. Ross is almost certain to win a seat and the FFer is an unknown – total sacrificial lamb. It’ll be Ross, 3FG 1L, or 2FG 2L
I think Ross is an ok candidate, but in terms of the policies he’s running for TD with, I think he lacks a large amount of credibility. He has offered nothing of substance to date and no real solutions. He merely came along when everyone already knew there a was a problem and wrote a book about it. He mentions a debt-for-equity solution for the bondholders…thats great, since it’s his friend’s idea-David McWilliams. The only difference is that McWilliams can say a lot more about the banks than that, and Ross can’t since he’s not informed enough on how to address the WHOLE picture. He was a stockbroker-which will serve little use to us and getting out of this mess. Our entire Banking Industry is in a mess and I want to know what’s going to change!
Peter Mathews called to my door the other day on his canvass, and without lecturing me, he actually told me very quickly what can be done to fix what has gone wrong. I have had to inform myself about the crisis because our media are so bad at following it and understanding it, and Mathews, Sommerville, McWilliams and Constantin are the only men I would trust as representatives. Unfortunately, only one of them is in my constituency-But I’m glad I at least have onethat I can vote for. Mathews is definitely getting my #1 vote.
No harm in having Ross there with PM as a TD, but they are certainly not comparable. Mathews would eat Shane Ross alive on this stuff from what I’ve seen and read by both of them to date. I thought he was just campaigning for ‘Banking Reform’, as he had given title to his main policy, but he seems to have a lot of other ideas about our health sector and pension problems-I have to say I was seriously impressed by him and his whole canvass team-they looked like professionals and they didn’t intrude on my doorstep, which was a nice change for once!
I don’t think this guy is messing about is my impression form meeting him! He’s exactly the type of person I want in politics, and thank god I finally got one to vote for this time!!! On top of that, he was an absolute gentleman when I met him and that just makes my decision even easier. I have to say Shane Ross and Peter Mathews were both terribly nice when I met them and both seemed genuinely interested with my concerns, but Mathews seemed to have the answers, and that’s why he’s getting my #1 vote
I am now more convinced than ever that there is a massive Dublin-Country split as regards voting intentions in this election:
The latest poll by The Kilkenny People newspaper this week for the Carlow-Kilkenny Constituency , this poll was personally conducted face-to-face at houses at forty different points in both counties through the nine different electoral areas of the constituency . ( The Kilkenny People is the well-respected traditional newspaper of Kilkenny and one of the most respected provincial newspapers in Ireland, poll supervised by Deputy Editor Sean Keane ( son of the late great John B. )
Fine Gael: 31 %
Fianna Fail: 24%
Labour: 22 %
Sinn Fein : 15%
Green 4 %
ULA ( Socialist Party) : 3 %
Others: 1 %
( This intensive poll was undertaken in the week before Micheal Martin became Leader of Fianna Fail)
The Fianna fail heavyweights, John McGuinness TD ( 11% ) and Bobby Aylward TD ( 10%) are neck-and-neck. The third FF ( Carlow) candidate on 3 % . Bobby Aylward , who admits ” It’s tough going out there! “, comments that Micheal Martin will bring them up another 4 % in his estimation.
The Fianna Fail vote for Carlow-Kilkenny was 47.7 % in 2007 General Election. It has collapsed by half.
This might throw light to an extent how the parties are polling in the country outside Dublin area.
Sean Keane states :
” The findings of the poll which were carried out by the Kilkenny People team over a week are at odds with telephone polls over the last number of months which show Fianna Fail at between 10% and 14% . ”
( the Kilkenny People is traditionally viewed as a newspaper with Fine Gael leanings though it is more neutral these days) .
You’ll find all of this fascinating insight into the voting intentions of a mid-Leinster urban-rural constituency in detail on the Kilkenny People website, the poll and its analysis goes to half the front page and four broadsheet pages inside the newspaper.
BTW contrary to the Dublin-based polls, Carlow-Kilkenny is placed at 24% for Fianna Fail in the Kilkenny People Poll that goes in much deeper than any national poll into that constituency, as against 21.7 % that you quote above.
AND that 24% was polled by the Kilkenny People in ‘Brian Cowan Days’ BEFORE Micheal Martin’s election as the new leader of Fianna Fail that will have significant support throughout the country outsode of Dublin.
Bobby Aylward TD estimated that extra Martin Bounce at 4% and I put it at 6 %, so 5% plus for Fianna fail.
This would give Fianna Fail the two seat in Carlow-Kilkenny ,More Important it would do the same in several more country constituencies.
Therefore Carlow-Kilkenny would now come in at 28 % for Fianna fail on the Aylward Adjustment and 30% Fianna Fail on my own adjustment for the Micheal martin Factor.
I do resent , no matter who they intend to vote for,even their Trotskyist candidates, the population of Dublin deciding it for the rest of us people of Ireland! This is an insult to our intellegence here in the Rest of Ireland.
This is happening all along throughout recent months, it has happened now again in this poll , and it will happen again in the REDC Poll later on!
There is massive Poll Orchestration going on at Dublin national media level, that is reflecting the Dublin ranting and raving against Fianna Fail all across the media and particularly within RTE , Joe Duffy’s programme in particular , that is slanting all these so-called ‘ national’ polls. They are basically Dublin Polls transferred across to the rest of Ireland, as that Kilkenny People newspaper Constituency In-Depth Poll has demonstrated and indeed proved.
Roll on the counts and you will see.
I believe this is a Millward Brown Lansdowne poll and thus can in no way be compared to the Quantum research poll of last weekend where the margins of error probably exceeded many of the parties’ vote share estimates… Millward Brown conducts all polls according to Esomar guidelines, thus 1,000 people will have been interviewed and the company will have ensured that this is a nationally representative sample. This allows the company to infer national trends. It is unclear exactly how the weights are constructed and where this sample points are but there is simply no way you can say it is a Dublin poll.
Red C also sets quotas on demographics such as age, sex, social class and region to ensure that the people interviewed are representative of all adults aged 18+, based on the latest Census. The final data is then also weighted to these demographic parameters. This is also nationally representative. See http://www.redcresearch.ie/themethodology.html
No matter the weightings it is possible to infer national trends from these polls, albeit that the margins of error may be higher than the 3% traditionally claimed by the companies… In contrast, it is simply invalid to infer national patterns from a poll conducted in one constituency no matter how it is conducted.
Whatever the parameters laid down it is not without the bounds of probability that the polls are over-influenced by the central Dublin national media, as I suggest here with evidence from a far more in-depth poll covering 400 people at 40 points over the 9 electoral areas of two counties of a typical 5-seater constituency.
There, both polls , Red C and Miliard-Brown state 21.9 and 21.7 per centage points for Fianna Fail ( After Martin) as against 24 percentage points for Fianna Fail ( Before Martin) in the much more intensive face-to-face InDepth Poll :
http://www.kilkennypeople.ie/news/Exclusive-general-election-poll-in.6701994.jp
The margins of error for a 1000 respondent poll are typicaly +/- 3% and for a 400 respondent poll +/- 6%, and it doesn’t matter all that much if the population sampled is the electorate in all of the Republic, or just that in Carlow Kilkwnny. Thus, counter-intuitive though it may seem, the 1000 sample MRBI national poll is much more accurate than the smaller Carlow Kilkenny one on a national basis, and also, unless the population in Carlow Kilkenny really is very differnet from the rest of the country, it is also more likely to be accurate for Carlow Kilkenny.
The only major caveat I would place on this rather startling conclusion is due to the fact that the Carlow Kilkenny poll seems to have polled support for actual candidates rather than support for parties as such. People may vote for Aylward etc. because he is Aylward and may not even be particularly aware of his party affiliation, and if they are, may do so despite his party affiliation.
For this reason the Constituency level poll is indeed likely to be more accurate. However even on this basis it is more likely that Labour will win two seats rather than FF if one makes the assumption that Labour will get more transfers from Sinn Fein, Greens, and ULA than FF.
Adding in an accepted Martin Bounce ( he is now 31% for taoiseach in RedC) of 4 % puts Fianna fail at 28 % based on the Kilkenny People Poll.
This puts Fianna Fail in Carlow-Kilkenny at more than 6 % ahead of what both RedC and Milliard Brown polls give them today.
http://www.kilkennypeople.ie/news/Exclusive-general-election-poll-in.6701994.jp
As a people we have yet to endure the indignity of not having bread and potatoes to put on the kitchen table, until that day arrives the vast majority of Irish people will vote for the old reliables FG,FF and Labour. Though bankrupted the country has yet to feel the full effects of that appalling vista. We are still an indoctrinated inert people who fully believe that if we close our eyes, somehow all this will go away. How wrong can we be? These polls show the level of delusion amongst the Irish electorate. We are willing to put two totally incompatible parties into power with a combined 112 seats. They both voted for a budget they told us they did not believe in and tomorrow people you will remember that when it is too late.
Absolutely, Robert , if anything those two are even worse than Fianna Fail because they are professional shysters out to fool the people.
But the Dublin-based media pundits are even worse still , persuding the people that there is any good at all left in Fine Gael or Labour.
People are listening especially to the moaners on the likes of Joe Duffy day in, day out.
The Irish Daily Mail has Enda Kenny and Gilmore already canonised, the Indo can’t wait to get them in, what on Earth is it all about as RBB and his Trots and Joe Higgins reign supreme on the Irish Times , and the prisoners in the Joy vote Shinner in the hope that Gerry will let them out before their time.
God help us, but you’re right.