Adrian Kavanagh 23 September 2010 Latest Red C Poll figures, to be published in tomorrow’s (24 October) Sunday Business Post – Fianna Fail 18% (down 6%), Fine Gael 32% (up 1%), LAB 27% (up 4%), Green Party 4% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 9% (down 1%), Independents/Other small parties 10% (up 2%) On these figures, my constituency level…
Adrian Kavanagh, 15th October 2010 When electoral boundaries were being redrawn for City abd County Council electoral areas in 2008, the terms of reference set for the two electoral area committees were changed so that, apart from exceptional cases, the minimum number of seats per electoral area would now be four, and not three as…
Adrian K avanagh, 8th October 2010 There has been increasing talk in recent times about the need for a national government, but also increasing reticence on the part of the opposition parties. Not surprising, as this would be a Fianna Fail dominated administration – the Dail arithmetic being such that Fianna Fail could push their own agenda more and…
Adrian Kavanagh, 29 September 2010 Irish Times Ipsos-MRBI opinion poll September 30: FF 24 (+3). FG 24 (-3), Lab 33 (+4), Greens 2 (-2), SF 8 (-2), Others 9 (nc) Core vote (before undecided voters are excluded): Fianna Fáil 19 (+3); Fine Gael 20 (-1); Labour 27 (+5); Sinn Féin 6 (-2); Green Party 2 (-1);…
Adrian Kavanagh, 25 September 2010 The poll figures to be published in tomorrow’s Sunday Business Post are radically different to those in Thursday’s Lansdowne Millward TV3 poll and, as such, produce very different estimates of Dail seats for parties using the method of producing constituency estimates as in previous such analyses. On these poll figures,…
Adrian Kavanagh, 23 September 2010 Today’s Millward-Browne Lansdowne TV3 poll offers a sobering analysis for the government parties, with Fianna Fail support estimated to stand at 22% and Green Party support at 2%. But it perhaps also offers disappointing results for two of the opposition parties; Fine Gael (30%) whose poll position as most popular…
Claire McGing and Adrian Kavanagh (August 5, 2010) A report on trends as to female candidate selection levels for the upcoming 2014 Local Elections can be viewed here. In light of ongoing discussion in relation to number of female TDs, this piece – a section from an article we wrote on last year’s local elections…
Adrian Kavanagh (28 June 2010) The latest Red C poll points to a remarkably consistent trend in terms of support for the three largest parties – again underlining the significant “Gilmore Gale” increase in support for Labour but also highlighting the strenght of Fine Gael support. But how would these figures translate into seats should these…
Adrian Kavanagh (18 July 2010) Recent polls from RedC and Irish Times/Isbos-MRBI have focused significant attention on the Labour Party and point to significant gains being made by that party, as tantamount to a “Gilmore Gale”. But the extent to which these significant shifts in support levels towards the party can be translated into seat gains…
Adrian Kavanagh (17 June 2010) The geography of Fine Gael support offers some insight as to why Enda Kenny survived the challenge to his leadership today. The party’s strength in rural, and especially western, parts of the state, relative to its weakness in Dublin, saw high numbers of Fine Gael TDs, MEPs and Senators being…
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