Sunday Business Post-Red C produces radically different Dail seat estimates

Adrian Kavanagh, 25 September 2010

The poll figures to be published in tomorrow’s Sunday Business Post are radically different to those in Thursday’s Lansdowne Millward TV3 poll and, as such, produce very different estimates of Dail seats for parties using the method of producing constituency estimates as in previous such analyses. On these poll figures, the analysis estimates that Fine Gael would be in a clear position as the strongest party in Dail Eireann with 60 seats. Fianna Fail, although just one per cent ahead of Labour in the poll, would in seat terms be eight seats clear as the second strongest party in the Dail with 49 seats as against 41 for Labour. This is a much more positive poll for Sinn Fein and on these figures the party would gain two seats in the next election – with three gains in Ulster and one possible loss in Dublin – to leave the party on 6, although with further seat gains in Dublin possible. This is a slightly more positive poll for the Greens, but on these figures the party would still fail to win a seat at the next general election. Fianlly, independents and the other smaller parties could expect to win 10 seats in the Dail based on these poll figures.

Based on these poll figures, constituency estimates for party support levels would be as follows:

FF FG LB GP SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 29.6% 36.1% 22.8% 5.5% 5.9% 0.0% 100.0%
Cavan-Monaghan 21.9% 35.6% 2.8% 2.3% 29.0% 8.4% 100.0%
Clare 28.3% 44.5% 4.0% 3.6% 5.5% 14.0% 100.0%
Cork East 18.8% 30.0% 40.6% 1.6% 8.4% 0.6% 100.0%
Cork North Central 18.6% 28.1% 25.2% 2.0% 10.6% 15.5% 100.0%
Cork North West 34.9% 49.7% 12.7% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Cork South Central 27.2% 34.3% 22.3% 5.7% 7.8% 2.7% 100.0%
Cork South West 24.9% 41.3% 22.1% 4.4% 7.4% 0.0% 100.0%
Donegal North East 31.0% 27.4% 4.4% 0.9% 26.9% 9.4% 100.0%
Donegal South West 30.9% 27.6% 6.7% 1.0% 32.4% 1.4% 100.0%
Dublin Central 24.1% 10.2% 26.9% 3.5% 12.4% 22.9% 100.0%
Dublin Mid West 20.4% 14.6% 26.6% 7.4% 14.3% 16.7% 100.0%
Dublin North 26.0% 17.1% 23.4% 11.4% 4.1% 18.0% 100.0%
Dublin North Central 25.7% 29.3% 16.7% 3.4% 5.5% 19.5% 100.0%
Dublin North East 21.4% 24.3% 32.2% 4.0% 18.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Dublin North West 24.9% 10.0% 40.7% 1.6% 20.0% 2.9% 100.0%
Dublin South 26.4% 34.3% 26.2% 7.8% 4.8% 0.4% 100.0%
Dublin South Central 15.9% 13.6% 39.9% 3.1% 12.2% 15.3% 100.0%
Dublin South East 17.1% 21.8% 39.0% 9.1% 7.0% 6.0% 100.0%
Dublin South West 19.3% 19.4% 38.7% 2.0% 14.9% 5.6% 100.0%
Dublin West 19.1% 20.5% 34.3% 2.1% 6.1% 17.9% 100.0%
Dun Laoghaire 19.5% 25.8% 35.1% 4.8% 3.1% 11.7% 100.0%
Galway East 25.5% 49.5% 7.9% 1.3% 5.1% 10.6% 100.0%
Galway West 24.7% 26.7% 28.9% 4.0% 4.9% 10.7% 100.0%
Kerry North-West Limerick 15.8% 32.0% 21.6% 1.1% 25.7% 3.8% 100.0%
Kerry South 21.4% 26.0% 27.9% 1.1% 4.6% 19.0% 100.0%
Kildare North 20.8% 21.9% 36.1% 2.9% 3.2% 15.2% 100.0%
Kildare South 28.8% 19.3% 46.4% 3.9% 0.0% 1.6% 100.0%
Laois-Offaly 41.0% 39.1% 6.8% 0.9% 9.3% 2.9% 100.0%
Limerick City 31.0% 31.9% 25.8% 1.8% 6.7% 2.7% 100.0%
Limerick 31.4% 52.1% 14.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Longford-Westmeath 22.4% 33.0% 37.7% 1.1% 5.3% 0.5% 100.0%
Louth 25.2% 34.5% 11.7% 5.0% 22.4% 1.2% 100.0%
Mayo 13.4% 58.2% 2.5% 0.5% 6.9% 18.5% 100.0%
Meath East 24.6% 28.8% 26.6% 1.9% 5.6% 12.4% 100.0%
Meath West 32.4% 35.8% 10.0% 1.7% 17.7% 2.3% 100.0%
Roscommon-South Leitrim 22.9% 45.4% 4.2% 1.2% 12.4% 13.9% 100.0%
Sligo-North Leitrim 24.3% 45.8% 9.1% 2.0% 17.3% 1.5% 100.0%
Tipperary North 17.6% 16.0% 20.7% 0.6% 4.8% 40.1% 100.0%
Tipperary South 26.8% 24.0% 19.9% 1.0% 4.4% 24.0% 100.0%
Waterford 26.1% 30.2% 25.0% 1.3% 9.4% 7.9% 100.0%
Wexford 23.5% 34.5% 30.1% 0.7% 10.2% 1.0% 100.0%
Wicklow 20.1% 24.1% 34.0% 4.3% 6.6% 10.8% 100.0%
STATE 24.0% 31.0% 23.0% 3.0% 10.0% 9.0% 100.0%

And based on these figures, guesstimates as to the numbers of seats won by parties in the different constituencies would be as follows:

FF FG LB GP SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 1 5
Cavan-Monaghan 1 2 2 5
Clare 2 2 4
Cork East 1 1 2 4
Cork North Central 1 1 1 1 4
Cork North West 1 2 3
Cork South Central 2 2 1 5
Cork South West 1 1 1 3
Donegal North East 1 1 1 3
Donegal South West 1 1 1 3
Dublin Central 1 2 1 4
Dublin Mid West 1 1 1 1 4
Dublin North 1 1 1 1 4
Dublin North Central 1 1 1 3
Dublin North East 1 1 1 3
Dublin North West 1 2 3
Dublin South 2 2 1 5
Dublin South Central 1 1 2 1 5
Dublin South East 1 1 2 4
Dublin South West 1 1 2 4
Dublin West 1 1 1 1 4
Dun Laoghaire 1 1 2 4
Galway East 1 3 4
Galway West 1 2 2 5
Kerry North-West Limerick 0 1 1 1 3
Kerry South 1 1 1 3
Kildare North 1 1 2 4
Kildare South 1 2 3
Laois-Offaly 3 2 5
Limerick City 1 2 1 4
Limerick 1 2 3
Longford-Westmeath 1 1 2 4
Louth 2 2 1 5
Mayo 1 3 1 5
Meath East 1 1 1 3
Meath West 1 2 3
Roscommon-South Leitrim 1 2 3
Sligo-North Leitrim 1 2 3
Tipperary North 1 1 1 3
Tipperary South 1 1 1 3
Waterford 1 2 1 4
Wexford 1 2 2 5
Wicklow 1 2 2 5
STATE 49 60 41 0 6 10 166

Even though these figures are well off the levels recorded by Labour in Thursday’s poll, it is worth noting that these figures would still represent a Gilmore Gale with party support levels more than doubling relative to the level the party was at in the 2007 election. Using the same methodology as in the last post and recognising that the geography of such Labour gains would be quite defined, a follow up analysis reruns these figures but taking account of where Labour gains in the 1992 Spring Tide were the most, or least, significant and, by extension, where Fianna Fail losses were the most notable. Adding change of support levels between 1989 and 1992 to the 2007 figures to produce a new base figure, the analysis is rerun to produce the following 1992-proofed constituency estimates:

FF FG LB GP SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 32.9% 35.8% 20.1% 5.4% 5.8% 0.0%
Cavan-Monaghan 19.4% 33.2% 10.3% 2.2% 27.1% 7.9%
Clare 26.0% 39.0% 14.7% 3.2% 4.8% 12.3%
Cork East 22.3% 32.6% 33.6% 1.7% 9.2% 0.7%
Cork North Central 19.8% 30.3% 19.6% 2.2% 11.4% 16.7%
Cork North West 32.4% 43.4% 21.9% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Cork South Central 28.5% 35.2% 19.6% 5.9% 8.1% 2.8%
Cork South West 25.2% 39.9% 23.6% 4.2% 7.1% 0.0%
Donegal North East 29.3% 24.0% 14.2% 0.8% 23.5% 8.3%
Donegal South West 31.7% 28.7% 3.5% 1.0% 33.6% 1.5%
Dublin Central 23.6% 10.0% 28.2% 3.4% 12.2% 22.6%
Dublin Mid West 25.9% 16.2% 15.0% 8.3% 15.9% 18.7%
Dublin North 21.5% 16.3% 30.2% 10.9% 3.9% 17.2%
Dublin North Central 20.1% 28.2% 24.4% 3.2% 5.3% 18.8%
Dublin North East 15.8% 23.8% 39.0% 3.9% 17.5% 0.0%
Dublin North West 27.9% 10.2% 36.7% 1.6% 20.6% 3.0%
Dublin South 20.2% 31.1% 36.8% 7.1% 4.4% 0.4%
Dublin South Central 13.3% 13.8% 42.0% 3.1% 12.3% 15.5%
Dublin South East 15.2% 23.2% 38.2% 9.7% 7.5% 6.3%
Dublin South West 21.1% 21.0% 33.5% 2.2% 16.2% 6.1%
Dublin West 16.8% 20.6% 36.3% 2.2% 6.1% 18.0%
Dun Laoghaire 21.9% 26.6% 31.3% 4.9% 3.2% 12.1%
Galway East 21.3% 50.2% 11.2% 1.4% 5.2% 10.8%
Galway West 32.7% 28.2% 18.2% 4.3% 5.2% 11.4%
Kerry North-West Limerick 14.5% 35.2% 16.8% 1.2% 28.3% 4.1%
Kerry South 22.3% 29.4% 20.3% 1.2% 5.2% 21.5%
Kildare North 23.4% 23.4% 30.3% 3.1% 3.4% 16.3%
Kildare South 40.3% 23.8% 29.1% 4.8% 0.0% 2.0%
Laois-Offaly 40.3% 35.3% 12.6% 0.8% 8.4% 2.6%
Limerick City 28.8% 27.3% 34.3% 1.6% 5.7% 2.3%
Limerick 25.5% 51.3% 21.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Longford-Westmeath 19.9% 32.7% 40.6% 1.0% 5.2% 0.5%
Louth 27.6% 34.4% 9.4% 5.0% 22.4% 1.2%
Mayo 14.6% 58.2% 1.3% 0.5% 6.9% 18.5%
Meath East 24.6% 30.3% 24.1% 2.0% 5.8% 13.1%
Meath West 30.3% 34.2% 14.9% 1.7% 16.9% 2.2%
Roscommon-South Leitrim 31.8% 40.4% 3.3% 1.1% 11.0% 12.4%
Sligo-North Leitrim 23.0% 38.5% 21.0% 1.7% 14.6% 1.3%
Tipperary North 20.3% 17.7% 11.6% 0.7% 5.3% 44.4%
Tipperary South 29.0% 25.5% 14.2% 1.0% 4.7% 25.5%
Waterford 26.9% 31.7% 21.8% 1.4% 9.9% 8.3%
Wexford 27.8% 39.1% 19.5% 0.8% 11.6% 1.1%
Wicklow 18.7% 29.7% 24.8% 5.3% 8.1% 13.4%
STATE 24.0% 31.0% 23.0% 3.0% 10.0% 9.0%

Based on which, the destination of seats in the different constituencies are estimated to fall as follows:

FF FG LB GP SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 1 5
Cavan-Monaghan 1 2 2 5
Clare 1 2 1 4
Cork East 1 1 2 4
Cork North Central 1 2 1 4
Cork North West 1 1 1 3
Cork South Central 2 2 1 5
Cork South West 1 1 1 3
Donegal North East 1 1 1 3
Donegal South West 1 1 1 3
Dublin Central 1 2 1 4
Dublin Mid West 1 1 1 1 4
Dublin North 1 1 1 1 4
Dublin North Central 1 1 1 3
Dublin North East 1 2 3
Dublin North West 1 1 1 3
Dublin South 1 2 2 5
Dublin South Central 1 1 3 5
Dublin South East 1 1 2 4
Dublin South West 1 1 2 4
Dublin West 1 2 1 4
Dun Laoghaire 1 1 2 4
Galway East 1 3 4
Galway West 2 2 1 5
Kerry North-West Limerick 1 1 1 3
Kerry South 1 1 1 3
Kildare North 1 1 1 1 4
Kildare South 1 1 1 3
Laois-Offaly 3 2 5
Limerick City 1 1 2 4
Limerick 1 2 3
Longford-Westmeath 1 1 2 4
Louth 2 2 1 5
Mayo 1 3 1 5
Meath East 1 1 1 3
Meath West 1 2 3
Roscommon-South Leitrim 1 2 3
Sligo-North Leitrim 1 1 1 3
Tipperary North 1 1 1 3
Tipperary South 1 1 1 3
Waterford 1 2 1 4
Wexford 2 2 1 5
Wicklow 1 2 1 1 5
STATE 47 60 42 0 7 10 166

These figures probably give a more realistic estimate of where seats may be won and lost in the light of significant gains (albeit not as significant as in the Lansdowne-Millward poll) for Labour at the expense of Fianna Fail. While the party seat estimates at the national level remains quite similar to the basic analysis, Fianna Fail are seen here to be now less successful in defending their more urban-based seats while the geography of Labour gains is now seen to more closely resemble those of the Spring Tide election in 1992. In this analysis, Sinn Fein pick up a further seat in Dublin leaving them now with three more seats than what the party won in the 2007 contest.

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7 thoughts on “Sunday Business Post-Red C produces radically different Dail seat estimates

  1. Either poll shows Fianna Fáil being out of office for two terms and that will destroy the raison d’etre of FF, which is to give patronage to the golden circle and if FG and L really do have the will to reform, which on these numbers they’ll certainly have the mandate to do, then the future can be far better.

    The real worry is that there is little evidence that FG or L do want to push through the scale of reform that is needed.

  2. There are no doubt good technical reasons why the two poll results are so different. However, if polls are to play a part in informing or enthusing citizens, the polling “industry” will have to address this as a problem. Right now polling appears ridiculous.

  3. Adrian,
    As you can see the translation of this poll into constituency terms gives outcomes far closer to the expectations I expressed in my response to the last poll-SinnFein to gain two seats in Donegal and a number of left independents to be elected.
    While the Labour poll in Milward Brown may have been at the higher end of the probable error span, I believe the Labour out-turn with Red C is at the lower end.
    Though the two polling organisations may have somewhat different methodologies, the two polls were taken by telephone on the same days.It might be a useful exercise to average the two polls and to make a constituency projection based on the result.

    • OK, I get an overall seats estimate of : FF 44, FG 58, LB, 52, GP 0, SF 4, OTH 9 – one lesson from these different simulations is that as the Labour vote estimate goes up, they seem to be taking more seats from the Other Left candidates, no matter how strong their poll estimates are in relative terms. In constituencies where Labour are looking to win two seats, or even three as in Dublin South Central, seat allocations (as with FF and FG) are off course assuming a “perfect split” in the vote between candidates from the same party – this doesn’t usually happen in reality (although were some cases where parties came close to this in some constituencies in the 2007 contest) and poor vote management could produce different outcomes in terms of destination of seats within a constituency.

      Averaging out the figures in the two polls would leave the following result: FF 23, FG 30.5, LAB 29, GP 2.5, SF 7, IND and OTH 8.5
      Applying these figures to my 1992-proofed analysis, the following constituency estimates emerge of party support based on these combined figures:

      FF FG LB GP SF OTH
      Carlow-Kilkenny 31.3% 35.0% 25.1% 4.5% 4.1% 0.0%
      Cavan-Monaghan 20.1% 35.4% 14.0% 2.0% 20.5% 8.1%
      Clare 25.1% 38.6% 18.6% 2.7% 3.4% 11.7%
      Cork East 20.5% 30.8% 40.6% 1.4% 6.1% 0.6%
      Cork North Central 19.1% 30.1% 24.9% 1.9% 8.1% 15.9%
      Cork North West 30.1% 41.3% 26.7% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
      Cork South Central 27.4% 34.7% 24.7% 4.9% 5.6% 2.6%
      Cork South West 23.8% 38.7% 29.2% 3.5% 4.9% 0.0%
      Donegal North East 29.7% 25.0% 18.9% 0.7% 17.4% 8.3%
      Donegal South West 34.3% 31.7% 5.0% 1.0% 26.5% 1.5%
      Dublin Central 22.5% 9.8% 35.3% 2.8% 8.5% 21.2%
      Dublin Mid West 26.0% 16.8% 19.8% 7.2% 11.7% 18.5%
      Dublin North 20.1% 15.6% 37.1% 8.8% 2.7% 15.8%
      Dublin North Central 18.9% 27.3% 30.2% 2.6% 3.6% 17.4%
      Dublin North East 14.6% 22.6% 47.7% 3.2% 11.9% 0.0%
      Dublin North West 26.3% 9.9% 45.6% 1.3% 14.2% 2.8%
      Dublin South 18.3% 28.9% 43.9% 5.6% 2.9% 0.4%
      Dublin South Central 12.1% 12.9% 50.4% 2.5% 8.2% 13.9%
      Dublin South East 13.9% 21.8% 45.9% 7.7% 5.0% 5.7%
      Dublin South West 19.8% 20.2% 41.4% 1.8% 11.1% 5.6%
      Dublin West 15.3% 19.2% 43.5% 1.7% 4.1% 16.2%
      Dun Laoghaire 20.1% 25.1% 37.8% 3.9% 2.1% 10.9%
      Galway East 20.6% 49.9% 14.3% 1.2% 3.7% 10.3%
      Galway West 31.3% 27.8% 22.9% 3.6% 3.6% 10.8%
      Kerry North-West Limerick 14.7% 36.7% 22.4% 1.0% 21.0% 4.2%
      Kerry South 21.2% 28.6% 25.4% 1.0% 3.6% 20.1%
      Kildare North 21.6% 22.2% 36.7% 2.4% 2.3% 14.8%
      Kildare South 37.0% 22.3% 35.0% 3.8% 0.0% 1.8%
      Laois-Offaly 39.3% 35.4% 16.1% 0.7% 6.0% 2.5%
      Limerick City 26.2% 25.5% 41.1% 1.3% 3.8% 2.1%
      Limerick 23.6% 48.8% 26.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
      Longford-Westmeath 17.7% 30.0% 47.6% 0.8% 3.4% 0.5%
      Louth 28.4% 36.4% 12.7% 4.5% 16.8% 1.3%
      Mayo 14.6% 59.9% 1.7% 0.4% 5.1% 18.3%
      Meath East 23.1% 29.2% 29.8% 1.7% 4.0% 12.1%
      Meath West 30.0% 34.8% 19.4% 1.4% 12.2% 2.2%
      Roscommon-South Leitrim 32.2% 42.0% 4.4% 0.9% 8.2% 12.3%
      Sligo-North Leitrim 22.2% 38.2% 26.6% 1.4% 10.3% 1.2%
      Tipperary North 19.9% 17.8% 14.9% 0.6% 3.8% 42.9%
      Tipperary South 28.1% 25.3% 18.1% 0.9% 3.3% 24.3%
      Waterford 25.7% 31.1% 27.4% 1.1% 6.9% 7.8%
      Wexford 26.8% 38.6% 24.7% 0.7% 8.2% 1.1%
      Wicklow 17.7% 28.9% 30.9% 4.4% 5.6% 12.5%

      and the following number of seats per constituency based on these estimates:
      FF FG LB GP SF OTH
      Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 1 0 0 0
      Cavan-Monaghan 1 2 1 0 1 0
      Clare 1 2 1 0 0 0
      Cork East 1 1 2 0 0 0
      Cork North Central 1 2 1 0 0 0
      Cork North West 1 1 1 0 0 0
      Cork South Central 2 2 1 0 0 0
      Cork South West 1 1 1 0 0 0
      Donegal North East 1 1 1 0 0 0
      Donegal South West 1 1 0 0 1 0
      Dublin Central 1 0 2 0 0 1
      Dublin Mid West 1 1 1 0 0 1
      Dublin North 1 0 2 0 0 1
      Dublin North Central 1 1 1 0 0 0
      Dublin North East 0 1 2 0 0 0
      Dublin North West 1 0 2 0 0 0
      Dublin South 1 2 2 0 0 0
      Dublin South Central 0 1 3 0 0 1
      Dublin South East 1 1 2 0 0 0
      Dublin South West 1 1 2 0 0 0
      Dublin West 0 1 2 0 0 1
      Dun Laoghaire 1 1 2 0 0 0
      Galway East 1 3 0 0 0 0
      Galway West 2 2 1 0 0 0
      Kerry North-West Limerick 0 1 1 0 1 0
      Kerry South 1 1 1 0 0 0
      Kildare North 1 1 2 0 0 0
      Kildare South 1 1 1 0 0 0
      Laois-Offaly 2 2 1 0 0 0
      Limerick City 1 1 2 0 0 0
      Limerick 2 1 0 0 0
      Longford-Westmeath 1 1 2 0 0 0
      Louth 2 2 0 0 1 0
      Mayo 1 3 0 0 0 1
      Meath East 1 1 1 0 0 0
      Meath West 1 1 1 0 0 0
      Roscommon-South Leitrim 1 2 0 0 0 0
      Sligo-North Leitrim 1 1 1 0 0 0
      Tipperary North 1 1 0 0 0 1
      Tipperary South 1 1 0 0 0 1
      Waterford 1 2 1 0 0 0
      Wexford 2 2 1 0 0 0
      Wicklow 1 2 2 0 0 1
      STATE 44 58 52 0 4 9

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