Irish Polling Indicator: good autumn for Fine Gael

IPI_Longitudinal

Estimated party support with shaded 95% uncertainty margins

Fine Gael has strengthened its position in the polls over the last few months. At 29% it polls about 3% higher than in July of this year. Independents and small parties went down, however, from 27% to 22% over the same period of time. These are the most important findings from the new Irish Polling Indicator, which aggregates all available opinion polls.

Labour is estimated at 7.5% support, which presents marked stability over the last year. The two main opposition parties in the Daíl, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin, both poll around 20%. For Sinn Féin this represents about a 3.5% decline from its score in early February. Fianna Fáil has been relatively stable over the last year. There seems to be a small improvement in the party’s electoral fortunes in March and April, but this improvement is only at the border of what would conventionally be called a statistical significant change.

IPI_Percentages

The aim of the Irish Polling Indicator is to provide a more robust view of opinion poll research in Ireland. By combining different polls we can minimize random error due to sampling and take into account structural differences between different polling companies. Detailed information on the most recent findings as well as the methods used, can be found at www.pollingindicator.com.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s