Adrian Kavanagh, 30 May 2011
The latest edition of the Red C-Sunday Business Post-Red C series of opinion polls produce good news for both the government parties, but especially for Fine Gael whose support levels are seen to stand at over 4% higher than the levels attained in February’s general election. Applying my constituency level analysis to these figures, seat estimates based on the simulated constituency support estimates suggest that Fine Gael would win a more than sufficient number of seats to form a majority single-party government if these figures were to be replicated in an election held today.
The opinion poll figures estimates the party support as follows: Fine Gael 41%, Labour 19%, Fianna Fail 16%, Sinn Fein 11%, Others 13%. Based solely on assigning seats on the basis of the constituency support estimates (using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats), party seat levels would be estimated as follows: Fine Gael 89, Labour 33, Fianna Fail 18, Sinn Fein 11, Others 15. When a degree of subjectivity is factored in and vote transfers and vote splitting/management elements (based on vote transfer/management patterns oberved in the February 2011 election) are accounted for, the party seat levels would more than likely be as follows: Fine Gael 84, Labour 36, Fianna Fail 16, Sinn Fein 14, Others 16.
The constituency support estimates based on the Red C-Sunday Business Post poll are as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | GP | SF | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 25.3% | 43.7% | 15.6% | 0.0% | 10.4% | 5.1% |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 17.7% | 43.1% | 5.3% | 0.0% | 27.5% | 6.4% |
| Clare | 20.6% | 48.8% | 14.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.0% |
| Cork East | 15.1% | 40.4% | 29.3% | 0.0% | 11.9% | 3.4% |
| Cork North Central | 14.0% | 30.0% | 26.1% | 0.0% | 16.9% | 13.0% |
| Cork North West | 22.0% | 53.4% | 13.2% | 0.0% | 7.9% | 3.5% |
| Cork South Central | 25.6% | 39.3% | 18.1% | 0.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% |
| Cork South West | 20.9% | 53.2% | 13.5% | 0.0% | 7.8% | 4.5% |
| Donegal North East | 15.8% | 35.4% | 10.4% | 0.0% | 26.7% | 11.8% |
| Donegal South West | 20.8% | 22.6% | 5.0% | 0.0% | 36.7% | 14.9% |
| Dublin Central | 14.1% | 23.5% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 15.0% | 18.8% |
| Dublin Mid West | 10.8% | 35.0% | 30.0% | 0.0% | 13.1% | 11.1% |
| Dublin North | 14.8% | 37.1% | 26.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.2% |
| Dublin North Central | 12.0% | 43.3% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 6.2% | 16.3% |
| Dublin North East | 10.5% | 33.3% | 33.4% | 0.0% | 13.2% | 9.6% |
| Dublin North West | 10.7% | 18.8% | 41.7% | 0.0% | 23.8% | 5.0% |
| Dublin South | 9.0% | 43.0% | 18.3% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 26.6% |
| Dublin South Central | 8.8% | 27.0% | 35.1% | 0.0% | 15.0% | 14.1% |
| Dublin South East | 10.5% | 41.2% | 25.3% | 0.0% | 4.1% | 18.8% |
| Dublin South West | 9.7% | 30.9% | 34.8% | 0.0% | 18.6% | 6.0% |
| Dublin West | 15.6% | 31.8% | 29.1% | 0.0% | 7.0% | 16.5% |
| Dun Laoghaire | 14.3% | 40.1% | 30.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.4% |
| Galway East | 16.6% | 48.7% | 12.9% | 0.0% | 6.8% | 15.0% |
| Galway West | 20.1% | 36.5% | 12.6% | 0.0% | 7.3% | 23.6% |
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 10.1% | 44.3% | 18.8% | 0.0% | 21.5% | 5.3% |
| Kerry South | 13.2% | 39.9% | 11.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 35.2% |
| Kildare North | 13.4% | 38.1% | 28.8% | 0.0% | 6.3% | 13.3% |
| Kildare South | 19.9% | 37.8% | 27.2% | 0.0% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Laois-Offaly | 25.0% | 39.0% | 7.8% | 0.0% | 12.2% | 16.1% |
| Limerick City | 19.1% | 47.7% | 19.2% | 0.0% | 9.2% | 4.7% |
| Limerick | 18.8% | 54.5% | 16.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.7% |
| Longford-Westmeath | 17.5% | 42.5% | 25.6% | 0.0% | 8.2% | 6.2% |
| Louth | 14.1% | 35.1% | 18.3% | 0.0% | 23.6% | 8.9% |
| Mayo | 13.9% | 69.4% | 4.5% | 0.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% |
| Meath East | 17.6% | 45.5% | 20.1% | 0.0% | 9.6% | 7.2% |
| Meath West | 15.8% | 49.6% | 12.6% | 0.0% | 18.3% | 3.6% |
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 14.0% | 44.5% | 9.3% | 0.0% | 11.0% | 21.2% |
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 20.0% | 41.8% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 14.7% | 13.5% |
| Tipperary North | 16.1% | 28.6% | 20.6% | 0.0% | 7.4% | 27.3% |
| Tipperary South | 12.7% | 41.3% | 11.3% | 0.0% | 5.2% | 29.5% |
| Waterford | 12.8% | 43.1% | 18.5% | 0.0% | 11.0% | 14.5% |
| Wexford | 17.3% | 39.8% | 20.3% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 16.0% |
| Wicklow | 9.7% | 45.1% | 16.8% | 0.0% | 11.2% | 17.2% |
| STATE | 16.0% | 41.0% | 19.0% | 0.0% | 11.0% | 13.0% |
Seat guesstimates based solely on these figures (using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency) and also taking account of the fact that Sean Barrett as Ceann Comhairle would be automatically re-elected in Dun Laoghaire, guaranteeing a Fine Gael seat there:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 1 | 3 | 1 | ||
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 3 | 1 | ||
| Clare | 1 | 3 | |||
| Cork East | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Cork North Central | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | |||
| Cork South Central | 1 | 3 | 1 | ||
| Cork South West | 1 | 2 | |||
| Donegal North East | 2 | 1 | |||
| Donegal South West | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin Central | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dublin Mid West | 2 | 2 | |||
| Dublin North | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin North Central | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North East | 1 | 2 | |||
| Dublin North West | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin South Central | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dublin South East | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin South West | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Dublin West | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dun Laoghaire | 3 | 1 | |||
| Galway East | 1 | 3 | |||
| Galway West | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 2 | 1 | |||
| Kerry South | 2 | 1 | |||
| Kildare North | 2 | 2 | |||
| Kildare South | 2 | 1 | |||
| Laois-Offaly | 1 | 3 | 1 | ||
| Limerick City | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | |||
| Longford-Westmeath | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Louth | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mayo | 1 | 4 | |||
| Meath East | 2 | 1 | |||
| Meath West | 2 | 1 | |||
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 2 | 1 | |||
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 1 | 2 | |||
| Tipperary North | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Tipperary South | 2 | 1 | |||
| Waterford | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Wexford | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wicklow | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| STATE | 18 | 89 | 33 | 11 | 15 |
The main driver of change here is the significant gain in Fine Gael support (up by over four percent relative to the general election). Even though support levels for Labour, Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein are seen to remain static, some of their more marginal seats are seen to fall into Fine Gael’s hands by dint of that party’s gain in popularity. The other significant trend in the poll relates to the drop in support for Others – a drop made even more significant by the fact that Green Party support levels are now subsumed within this grouping.
When a more subjective element is drawn in to account for seats that may be won 0r lost on the basis of number of candidates (e.g. Others being allocated a seat in Laois-Offaly mainly due to the large number of independent candidates who contested this constituency), vote transfers and vote management (e.g. discrepancies between votes won by party front runners and their running mates which would see potential seat wins fall out of a party’s hands), the seat allocations across the constituencies should look more like this:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 1 | 3 | 1 | ||
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 3 | 1 | ||
| Clare | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Cork East | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Cork North Central | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | |||
| Cork South Central | 1 | 3 | 1 | ||
| Cork South West | 2 | 1 | |||
| Donegal North East | 2 | 1 | |||
| Donegal South West | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin Central | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dublin Mid West | 2 | 2 | |||
| Dublin North | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin North Central | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin North East | 1 | 2 | |||
| Dublin North West | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin South Central | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dublin South East | 2 | 2 | |||
| Dublin South West | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Dublin West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dun Laoghaire | 3 | 1 | |||
| Galway East | 1 | 3 | |||
| Galway West | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Kerry North-West Limerick | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Kerry South | 2 | 1 | |||
| Kildare North | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Kildare South | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Laois-Offaly | 1 | 3 | 1 | ||
| Limerick City | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | |||
| Longford-Westmeath | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Louth | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mayo | 1 | 4 | |||
| Meath East | 2 | 1 | |||
| Meath West | 2 | 1 | |||
| Roscommon-South Leitrim | 2 | 1 | |||
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 2 | 1 | |||
| Tipperary North | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Tipperary South | 2 | 1 | |||
| Waterford | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Wexford | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wicklow | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| STATE | 16 | 84 | 36 | 14 | 16 |
Fine Gael’s 41% support level is lower than the 42% support levels that Fianna Fail almost won overall majorities based on in the 2002 and 2007 elections, but they do have an advantage of facing a decidedly more fractured opposition which opens up the possibility, as this analysis shows, of getting a significantly larger seat bonus than that which Fianna Fail received in the elections of the 2000s. Once the factors of vote transfers and vote splitting between multiple candidates are factored, Fine Gael’s likelihood of an overall majority would decline somewhat and the final result would boil down to some close contests in marginal constituencies – however the party would have just enough to edge the overall majority based on this analysis. If a more stringent vote management was factored in for some constituencies (such as Dublin West and Kerry North-West Limerick), the extent of the Fine Gael victory could prove to be even more significant.
Irish Politics Forum 
So I guess Kenny will be calling a snap election then – not! I wonder how long the excuse of blaming everything on the previous government can continue before people start expecting to see tangiable results from the new government.
This clearly demonstrates the public’s anger with FF who will find it impossible to come back. What these polls do not measure is the 3rd, 4th and 5th choices that people have in their minds. Yes, this government is infinitely better than FF but it is following the same policies as FF and that is the contradiction of the poll results. The public’s mood is extremely volatile regardless of what this poll is telling us.
@ DF: “how long … … before people start expecting to see tangiable results from the new government.”
Not long. But just look at the bad reaction to Leo Vs little foray into the Truth Zone!
If we had a Full Monty style FoI act, we might get some few nuggets of fact. All we get at present is Mushroom Head waffle to keep the Sheeple from understanding the dreadful extent of our fiscal predicament and the probability of negative economic growth in the coming years (there is a bad energy shock fermenting slowly).
The usual mantra, “Don’t spook the markets” is political terrorism at its worst. Funny how political folk have a nice ideological understanding of ‘terrorism’. George Orwell would have been proud of these guys. You tell the truth, that’s it. You lie – you then have to spend lots of time and physical and psychological effort covering up. Learning is not possible: so how can you reform is you never learn?
Brian
It’s interesting that only Leo Varadker and Simon Coveney have dared to speak the truth on any issue and both were slapped down while the ‘old school’ types seem to have reverted to exactly the same sort of politics that went before.
Not being corrupt/crony ridden isn’t going to be enough to sort out the mess we are in and I can’t see old men with their last chance of power are the types to have the guts to push through real and genuine reform. They don’t even have the guts to ban corporate donations are even to lower the declaration limit to zero.
Then again, checking the expenses claimed by new TDs with no receipts published doesn’t inspire much hope they are any better than what went before.
Maybe it’s a generational thing but it’s quite depressing that a group of people who have spent 15 years fighting to get power, now have it and seem completely unable to do anything with it – they seem likely to make the same mistakes as New Labour did and waste an entire first term being obsessed with winning a second term by not spooking anyone instead of making it their job to spook people, make them face reality and show them the road to getting through the current mess.
But as long as nothing is done to tackle all the abuses at the top of the pile, then the likes of Bruton haven’t an ounce of credibility to ask cleaners or security guards etc to make even more pay cuts.
Fintan O’Toole said it perfectly in his IT piece today.
Gustav von Schmoller got there first (1881). Translation of his essay. “The Idea of Justice in Political Economy”, published in The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences: March 1894; pp 1-40. Download from JStore.
Brian