Love’s Labour Not Entirely Lost?: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (17th August 2014)

Adrian Kavanagh, 16th August 2014 

The latest in the series of Behaviour & Attitudes polls has brought good news for the Labour Party after a long period of dismal results in previous such opinion polls. The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll of August 16th 2014, estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll): Fine Gael 24% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 19% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 18% (down 1%), Labour Party 14% (up 7%), Green Party 2% (NC), Independents and Others 20% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 31, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 28, Labour Party 21, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 31. Continue reading

“When the hurly-burly’s done…”: Constituency-level analyses of the post-election polls

Adrian Kavanagh, 12th June 2014 (with subsequent updates)

The local and European elections brought a (probably quite welcome!) respite to the spate of opinion polls that had appeared in the run up to the May 23rd electoral contests, but June 12th saw the publication of one of the first post-elections opinion polls – the Paddy Power-Red C poll of June 12th 2014, which estimates party support levels as follows: Fine Gael 22%, Sinn Fein 22%, Fianna Fail 18%, Labour Party 4%, Green Party 2%, Independents and Others 32%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 32, Fine Gael 40, Sinn Fein 37, Labour 0, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 48. This was preceded by the Irish Independent-Millward Brown poll of June 7th 2014, which estimates party support levels as follows: Sinn Fein 26%, Fine Gael 20%, Fianna Fail 20%, Labour Party 5%, Green Party 2%, Independents and Others 27%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 36, Fine Gael 38, Sinn Fein 43, Labour 0, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 40. The latest in the series of Red C polls, the Sunday Business Post-Red C poll of June 29th 2014, estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 25% (NC), Sinn Fein 22% (up 4%), Fianna Fail 18% (down 3%), Labour Party 7% (down 4%), Independents, Green Party and Others 28% (up 3%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 33, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 34, Labour 1, Independents, Green Party and Others 44.  The latest in the series of Millward-Brown polls, the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll of August 3rd 2014, estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 25%, Sinn Fein 25%, Fianna Fail 20%, Labour Party 7%, Green Party 1%, Independents and Others 23%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 35, Fine Gael 47, Sinn Fein 42, Labour 2, Green Party 0, Independents and Others 28Continue reading

The Pre-Election Polls: Constitiuency-level analyses of the late April and May opinions polls

Adrian Kavanagh, first posted 28th April 2014, with later updates

A series of opinion polls published in the weeks leading up to the May 23rd Local and European elections brought further bad news for the government parties, while offering very positive messages for the Independents and Others grouping and for Sinn Fein in the lead up to the May 23rd local and European elections. The RTE poll of polls (21st May 2014) estimated party support levels (across the most recent opinion polls) as follows: Fine Gael 24%, Fianna Fail 22%, Sinn Fein 22%, Labour Party 7%, Independents, Green Party and Others 26%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 38,, Fine Gael 45, Sinn Fein 32, Labour 2, Independents, Green Party and Others 41The Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll (20th May 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll on 4th April): Fine Gael 23% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 23% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 19% (down 2%), Labour Party 7% (down 1%), Independents, Green Party and Others 28% (up 7%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 41, Fine Gael 44, Sinn Fein 26, Labour 2, Independents, Green Party and Others 45. The Irish Independent-Millward Brown poll (19th May 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll): Fine Gael 21% (down 4%), Fianna Fail 20% (down 3%), Sinn Fein 23% (up 2%), Labour Party 6% (NC), Green Party 2% (NC), Independents and Others 27% (up 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 36, Fine Gael 41, Sinn Fein 37, Labour 0, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 43. The Irish Sun-Red C poll (19th May 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll): Fine Gael 25% (NC), Fianna Fail 20% (down 1%), Sinn Fein 20% (up 2%), Labour Party 8% (down 3%), Green Party 2% (NC), Independents and Others 24% (up 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 37, Fine Gael 47, Sinn Fein 28, Labour 7, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 38. The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (18th May 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll) – although this asked about voting intentions at the upcoming local elections and not a general election per se – : Fine Gael 25% (up 4%), Fianna Fail 22% (up 2%), Sinn Fein 17% (down 3%), Labour Party 9% (NC), Green Party 4% (up 1%), Independents and Others 26% (up 5%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 37, Fine Gael 51, Sinn Fein 25, Labour 3, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 41.

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March in like a lion but not out like a lamb for the larger parties: Analyses of March and early April opinions polls

Adrian Kavanagh, 1st March 2014

March had come in like a lion for the three largest parties in the state but definitely did not go out like a lamb. The latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll saw Fianna Fail, Labour and Fine Gael all losing significant levels of support relative to the previous such poll while Sinn Fein and the Independents and Others grouping made gains at the expense of these parties. The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll, taken some weeks later, produced a largely similar result, although support levels for Fianna Fail and the Independents and Others grouping did largely remain static in this. Continue reading

Mixed results for the different parties in the January/February polls

Adrian Kavanagh, 9th/25th January/22nd February 2014

The trends of varying results across two polls published on the same date, as evidenced with the 26th January polls, is evident again with those to be published on 23rd February. The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (23rd February) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll): Fine Gael 29% (up 2%), Fianna Fail 22% (down 1%), Sinn Fein 16% (NC), Labour Party 11% (up 2%), Green Party 2%/Independents and Others 20% (down 3%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 37, Fine Gael 57, Sinn Fein 20, Labour 15, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 28. The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (23rd February) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll): Fine Gael 30% (NC), Fianna Fail 19% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 18% (up 3%), Labour Party 9% (down 2%), Green Party 3%/Independents and Others 21% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 33, Fine Gael 63, Sinn Fein 24, Labour 7, Green Party 2, Independents and Others 29. Continue reading

Constituency-level analyses of national opinion polls carried out during 2013: A review.

Adrian Kavanagh, 31st December 2013

During the past year (2013), I carried out constituency-level analyses of thirty four different national opinion polls in order to produce Dail-seat estimates based on those support levels. These analyses involved thirteen Red C (Sunday Business Post-Red C and Paddy Power-Red C) polls, twelve Sunday Independent-Millward Browne polls, four Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI polls and five Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes polls. Averaging the different Dail seat-level estimates for the different political parties and political groupings across these polls produces the following estimate: Fianna Fail 46, Fine Gael 52, Labour Party 11, Sinn Fein 25, Independents and Others 24. But notably different seat-estimates were produced depending on the time of year that these polls were held in, but especially depending on what polling companies were involved in the carrying out of these different polls, as will be illustrated below.

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Après la guerre: Constituency level analyses of post-Budget opinion polls

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th October 2013 (with updates)

The opinion polls taken place in the wake of the recent Budget have brought mixed news for the government parties, with some polls seeing these parties leaking support to the opposition parties but especially to the Independents and Others grouping. However the more recent Sunday Times/Behaviour & AttitudesIrish Times-Ipsos MRBI and Sunday Business Post-Red C have seen the government parties reclaiming some of their lost support.  The Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes poll of 22nd December 2013 estimates party support as follows (compared to the last Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes poll):  Fine Gael 30% (up 5%), Fianna Fail 21% (NC), Sinn Fein 15% (down 3%), Labour 9% (NC), Green Party 3% (NC), Independents and Others 21% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 39, Fine Gael 59, Sinn Fein 20, Labour 15, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 24. The Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI  poll of 24th November 2013 estimates party support as follows (compared to the last  Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll):  Fine Gael 30% (up 4%), Fianna Fail 22% (NC), Sinn Fein 21% (down 2%), Labour 9% (up 3%), Independents, Green Party and Others 18% (down 5%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 38, Fine Gael 58, Sinn Fein 32, Labour 8, Independents, Green Party and Others 22.

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