Adrian Kavanagh, 26th October 2013 (with updates)
The opinion polls taken place in the wake of the recent Budget have brought mixed news for the government parties, with some polls seeing these parties leaking support to the opposition parties but especially to the Independents and Others grouping. However the more recent Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes, Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI and Sunday Business Post-Red C have seen the government parties reclaiming some of their lost support. The Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes poll of 22nd December 2013 estimates party support as follows (compared to the last Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes poll): Fine Gael 30% (up 5%), Fianna Fail 21% (NC), Sinn Fein 15% (down 3%), Labour 9% (NC), Green Party 3% (NC), Independents and Others 21% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 39, Fine Gael 59, Sinn Fein 20, Labour 15, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 24. The Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll of 24th November 2013 estimates party support as follows (compared to the last Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll): Fine Gael 30% (up 4%), Fianna Fail 22% (NC), Sinn Fein 21% (down 2%), Labour 9% (up 3%), Independents, Green Party and Others 18% (down 5%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 38, Fine Gael 58, Sinn Fein 32, Labour 8, Independents, Green Party and Others 22.
The most recent Sunday Business Post-Red C poll has brought some good news for the government parties with these (or rather Labour) gaining three percentage points relative to the previous such poll (or seven percentage points if compared with the more recent Paddy Power-Red C poll). The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll of 24th November 2013 estimates party support as follows (compared to the last Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 29% (NC), Fianna Fail 22% (down 1%), Sinn Fein 15% (down 2%), Labour 12% (up 3%), Independents, Green Party and Others 22% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 40, Fine Gael 60, Sinn Fein 20, Labour 16, Independents, Green Party and Others 22.
In the wake of the recent Budget announcement, the Sunday Business Post-Red C poll of 27th October 2013 brought decidedly mixed news for the government parties, with Fine Gael gaining two percentage points but the Labour Party dropping one percentage point. The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll of 27th October 2013 estimates party support as: Fine Gael 29% (up 2%), Fianna Fail 23% (NC), Sinn Fein 17% (NC), Labour 9% (down 1%), Green Party 2% (down 2%), Independents and Others 20% (up 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 45, Fine Gael 57, Sinn Fein 22, Labour 9, Green Party 0, Independents and Others 25. But the Paddy Power-Red C poll of 7th November 2013 brought decidedly less favourable new for the main government party with a drop of four percentage points on the earlier Red C poll being registered, while the Labour vote held stable and the Independents/Others grouping notably gained four percentage points. The Paddy Power-Red C poll of 7th November 2013 estimates party support as: Fine Gael 25% (down 4%), Fianna Fail 24% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 16% (down 1%), Labour 9% (NC), Green Party 2% (NC), Independents and Others 24% (up 4%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 48, Fine Gael 50, Sinn Fein 22, Labour 9, Green Party 0, Independents and Others 29. The Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll of 17th November 2013 estimates party support as: Fine Gael 27% (NC), Fianna Fail 24% (down 3%), Sinn Fein 21% (down 2%), Labour 9% (NC), Green Party 1% (down 1%), Independents and Others 18% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 43, Fine Gael 52, Sinn Fein 30, Labour 9, Green Party 0, Independents and Others 24.
The analyses used here are similar to previous posts which have applied a constituency level analysis (although with these using the constituency units used for the 2011 General Election) based on assigning seats on the basis of constituency support estimates and simply using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats, while also taking account of the factors of vote transfers and vote splitting/management (based on vote transfer/management patterns observed in the February 2011 election). Based on such an analysis and using the new constituency units (as defined in the 2012 Constituency Commission report) – the new constituencies which will be used for the next general election (assuming an election is not called in the following months before the Electoral Act putting the new constituency configuration into effect) – these analyses estimates what party seat levels would be, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election. These analysis suggests that Fianna Fail would seem to be the party most likely to be positively effected by the redrawing of the constituency boundaries and suggests that the party, in this context, would be gaining as a result of the boundary changes, in addition to the party’s improvement in its opinion poll levels relative to its 2011 General Election figures, irrespective of the impact of a reduction in Dail seat numbers from 166 to 158.
Due to unusually high/low support levels for some parties or political groupings in the previous election, the model may throw up occasional constituency predictions that are unlikely to pan out in a “real election”, but the estimates here cannot be seen as highly accurate estimates of support levels at the constituency level as in a “real election” party support changes will vary significantly across constituency given uneven geographical shifts in support levels. But the ultimate aim of the models are to get an overall, national-level, estimate of seat numbers and these are based on the proviso that an over-prediction in one constituency may be offset by an under-prediction in another constituency. I have made some further corrections to the base support figures for the different parties for this analysis to take better account of the impacts on support of the 2012 Constituency Commission report boundary changes with especial reference to the Dublin constituencies. For instance, these figures better reflect the weaker positions of Fine Gael and Fianna Fail in Dublin Central after the moving out of the Ashtown area to Dublin West and the Botanic/Drumcondra area to Dublin North West, but also their stronger positions in Dublin West and Dublin North West. Fine Gael are assigned an extra seat in Dun Laoghaire on the basis that the Ceann Comhairle, Sean Barrett, will be automatically returned at the next general election and, as a result, this constituency will effectively be rendered a three-seat contest at the next general election.
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The constituency support estimates based on the Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes poll figures (22nd December 2013), when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | GP | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 34% | 33% | 9% | 14% | 6% | 5% |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 21% | 29% | 3% | 36% | 10% | 1% |
| Clare | 25% | 34% | 8% | 5% | 25% | 3% |
| Cork East | 22% | 33% | 19% | 18% | 5% | 2% |
| Cork North Central | 19% | 22% | 14% | 21% | 21% | 2% |
| Cork North West | 31% | 42% | 8% | 11% | 5% | 2% |
| Cork South Central | 34% | 28% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 4% |
| Cork South West | 29% | 42% | 8% | 11% | 6% | 3% |
| Donegal | 21% | 18% | 4% | 36% | 20% | 1% |
| Dublin Central | 14% | 12% | 16% | 22% | 33% | 3% |
| Dublin Mid West | 15% | 27% | 18% | 18% | 16% | 6% |
| Dublin Fingal | 18% | 26% | 15% | 4% | 24% | 13% |
| Dublin Bay North | 15% | 29% | 17% | 14% | 22% | 3% |
| Dublin North West | 17% | 16% | 25% | 30% | 10% | 2% |
| Dublin Rathdown | 11% | 29% | 9% | 4% | 36% | 11% |
| Dublin South Central | 12% | 18% | 21% | 22% | 24% | 3% |
| Dublin Bay South | 14% | 31% | 15% | 6% | 23% | 11% |
| Dublin South West | 13% | 26% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 4% |
| Dublin West | 21% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 27% | 2% |
| Dun Laoghaire | 18% | 30% | 17% | 3% | 24% | 7% |
| Galway East | 21% | 36% | 8% | 7% | 26% | 1% |
| Galway West | 22% | 27% | 6% | 8% | 34% | 3% |
| Kerry County | 14% | 27% | 9% | 16% | 34% | 1% |
| Kildare North | 18% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 23% | 3% |
| Kildare South | 27% | 30% | 16% | 9% | 15% | 2% |
| Laois | 33% | 30% | 7% | 20% | 9% | 1% |
| Offaly | 26% | 21% | 2% | 8% | 42% | 1% |
| Limerick City | 28% | 38% | 13% | 12% | 7% | 2% |
| Limerick | 24% | 44% | 9% | 6% | 16% | 1% |
| Longford-Westmeath | 25% | 34% | 16% | 12% | 11% | 1% |
| Louth | 18% | 25% | 10% | 30% | 10% | 7% |
| Mayo | 21% | 55% | 3% | 10% | 11% | 1% |
| Meath East | 25% | 35% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 2% |
| Meath West | 22% | 38% | 8% | 25% | 5% | 2% |
| Roscommon-Galway | 16% | 32% | 6% | 8% | 37% | 1% |
| Sligo-Leitrim | 26% | 29% | 4% | 25% | 15% | 1% |
| Tipperary | 17% | 22% | 8% | 7% | 44% | 1% |
| Waterford | 17% | 32% | 11% | 14% | 25% | 1% |
| Wexford | 22% | 29% | 12% | 8% | 28% | 1% |
| Wicklow | 13% | 32% | 10% | 14% | 29% | 2% |
Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | GP | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Clare | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cork East | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork North Central | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork South Central | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork South West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donegal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Central | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Mid West | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Fingal | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Dublin Bay North | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin North West | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dublin Rathdown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Dublin South Central | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Bay South | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin South West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dun Laoghaire | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Galway East | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Galway West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Kerry County | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kildare North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kildare South | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Laois | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Offaly | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Limerick City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Longford-Westmeath | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Louth | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mayo | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Meath East | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Meath West | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Roscommon-Galway | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Sligo-Leitrim | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tipperary | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Waterford | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Wexford | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Wicklow | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| STATE | 36 | 57 | 13 | 19 | 32 | 1 |
These estimates also need to take account of the candidate and competition trends unique to the different constituency. Amending the model to account for seats that may be won or lost on the basis of estimates here being based on support levels derived due to a large/small number of candidates contesting the election in 2011 (as in the large number of independent candidates competing in constituencies such as Wicklow or Laois-Offaly in 2011) or one candidate polling especially well in that election (e.g. the Shane Ross vote in Dublin South/Mick Wallace vote in Wexford) in a manner that would not amount to an extra seat for another member of the same party/grouping. Vote transfer patterns and vote management issues (e.g. discrepancies between votes won by party front runners and their running mates which would see potential seat wins fall out of a party’s hands) also need to be accounted for. Taking these concerns into account, the amended seat allocations across the constituencies would look more like this:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | GP | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Clare | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cork East | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork North Central | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork South Central | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork South West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donegal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Central | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Mid West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dublin Fingal | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Dublin Bay North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin North West | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dublin Rathdown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin South Central | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Bay South | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin South West | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dublin West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dun Laoghaire | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Galway East | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Galway West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Kerry County | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kildare North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kildare South | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Laois | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Offaly | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Limerick City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Longford-Westmeath | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Louth | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mayo | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Meath East | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Meath West | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Roscommon-Galway | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sligo-Leitrim | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tipperary | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Waterford | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Wexford | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Wicklow | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| STATE | 39 | 59 | 15 | 20 | 24 | 1 |
| % seats | 24.7 | 37.3 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 15.2 | 0.6 |
Based on these seat estimates, a Fine Gael-Labour (combined seat level of 74 seats) would fall somewhat short of the number of seats required to form a government (79 seats); this would prove to be even more the case in relation to a possible Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein alliance (combined seat level of 59 seats). To have a sufficient number of seats required to command a majority in Dail Eireann (79 seats in a 158 seat Dail, assuming a deputy from another party/grouping takes on the Ceann Comhairle role), a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein or Fine Gael-Labour alliance would need the support of at least twenty/five or more, TDs from the independent ranks or from another political grouping to be able to form a government. A Fine Gael and Sinn Fein pairing would just about reach the 79-seat level (combined seat level of 79 seats), but such an alliance looks to be unlikely in the present political climate. Ultimately, based on these numbers a Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition government would be the only viable two-party coalition and such an alliance would command a very strong Dail majority (with a combined seat level of 98 seats).
Given the improved support levels for Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein relative to the 2011 General Election and figures in earlier (during 2010 and 2011) opinion poll figures, the seat estimates based on this constituency-level analysis still suggest a significant improvement in Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein seat levels relative to those won by these parties and groupings in the 2011 contest (especially given that the fact that there will be eight less seats in the next Dail has been factored into this analysis), effectively pointing to significant gains on the part of the Dail opposition since 2011. The same applies to the Independents and Others, but it is worth noting that, as opposed to the parties, the Independents and Others grouping is a very broad church and includes a range of parties, groups and individuals with very different ideological perspectives, including the Socialist Party and the People Before Profit alliance, as well as left-leaning independents and Fianna Fail-gene pool independents. Looking at the constituencies where this grouping is predicted to win seats in this model, it can be seen that left-leaning parties and independents would take 13 of the 24 seats being assigned to this grouping.
Based on an analysis of these same poll figures, support estimates for the different new European Elections constituencies would be as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | GP | |
| Dublin | 15% | 25% | 17% | 13% | 23% | 6% |
| Midlands-North-West | 22% | 31% | 8% | 19% | 18% | 2% |
| South | 23% | 31% | 10% | 12% | 21% | 2% |
On the basis of these figures, both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael would be somewhat confident of winning one seat in each of the different constituencies, although Fianna Fail would appear to less certain of winning a seat in Dublin than they would in the other constituencies. Fine Gael would be in contention, based on these figures, to win a second seat in the Midlands-North-West and South constituencies, especially if the Independents and Others votes were split across a number of different contenders,although a strong showing for Sinn Fein in the Midlands-North-West constituency could pose obstacles to a second Fine Gael seat there. The Independents and Others grouping would also be well placed to challenge for seats in all of these constituencies (in Dublin the votes assigned to the old United Left Alliance grouping would be estimated at 9.9%). Sinn Fein would appear to be more than well placed to win a seat in the Midlands-North-West constituency and would be in contention to win seats in the other two constituencies. Labour would not be in contention, based on these figures, to win seats in the South or Midlands-North-West constituencies, but would – on the basis of these figures – be in strong contention to win a seat in the Dublin constituency, unless transfer patterns proved especially unfavourable for them.
Of course, this analysis cannot take account of the candidate effect and with European Elections in particular (in a similar vein to presidential elections) a strong/popular candidate can significantly improve a party’s fortunes in a particular constituency.
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The constituency support estimates based on the Sunday Business Post-Red C poll figures (27th October 2013), when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | GP | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 37% | 31% | 8% | 16% | 5% | 3% |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 22% | 27% | 2% | 39% | 9% | 1% |
| Clare | 28% | 33% | 7% | 6% | 24% | 2% |
| Cork East | 25% | 33% | 16% | 20% | 5% | 1% |
| Cork North Central | 21% | 22% | 12% | 24% | 20% | 1% |
| Cork North West | 34% | 40% | 7% | 13% | 5% | 2% |
| Cork South Central | 37% | 27% | 9% | 14% | 11% | 3% |
| Cork South West | 32% | 40% | 7% | 13% | 6% | 2% |
| Donegal | 22% | 17% | 3% | 39% | 18% | 1% |
| Dublin Central | 15% | 12% | 13% | 25% | 32% | 2% |
| Dublin Mid West | 17% | 27% | 15% | 21% | 16% | 4% |
| Dublin Fingal | 22% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 24% | 9% |
| Dublin Bay North | 17% | 28% | 15% | 16% | 22% | 2% |
| Dublin North West | 18% | 16% | 20% | 34% | 10% | 1% |
| Dublin Rathdown | 13% | 30% | 8% | 5% | 37% | 8% |
| Dublin South Central | 13% | 18% | 18% | 25% | 24% | 2% |
| Dublin Bay South | 16% | 32% | 13% | 7% | 24% | 8% |
| Dublin South West | 15% | 26% | 16% | 22% | 19% | 3% |
| Dublin West | 24% | 23% | 14% | 11% | 27% | 2% |
| Dun Laoghaire | 21% | 31% | 15% | 4% | 24% | 5% |
| Galway East | 23% | 35% | 7% | 8% | 25% | 1% |
| Galway West | 25% | 26% | 5% | 10% | 32% | 2% |
| Kerry County | 15% | 26% | 7% | 18% | 33% | 1% |
| Kildare North | 21% | 29% | 15% | 10% | 23% | 2% |
| Kildare South | 30% | 29% | 14% | 11% | 14% | 2% |
| Laois | 35% | 28% | 6% | 22% | 8% | 0% |
| Offaly | 29% | 20% | 2% | 10% | 39% | 0% |
| Limerick City | 31% | 37% | 10% | 14% | 7% | 1% |
| Limerick | 26% | 43% | 7% | 6% | 16% | 1% |
| Longford-Westmeath | 28% | 33% | 13% | 14% | 11% | 1% |
| Louth | 20% | 24% | 8% | 34% | 9% | 5% |
| Mayo | 23% | 53% | 2% | 11% | 11% | 0% |
| Meath East | 27% | 34% | 10% | 15% | 12% | 1% |
| Meath West | 23% | 36% | 6% | 28% | 5% | 1% |
| Roscommon-Galway | 18% | 32% | 5% | 9% | 36% | 0% |
| Sligo-Leitrim | 28% | 27% | 4% | 27% | 14% | 1% |
| Tipperary | 19% | 22% | 7% | 9% | 43% | 1% |
| Waterford | 19% | 31% | 9% | 17% | 24% | 1% |
| Wexford | 25% | 28% | 10% | 10% | 27% | 1% |
| Wicklow | 14% | 32% | 8% | 17% | 28% | 2% |
Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | GP | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Clare | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cork East | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork North Central | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork South Central | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork South West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donegal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Central | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Dublin Mid West | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Fingal | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Bay North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin North West | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dublin Rathdown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Dublin South Central | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Bay South | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin South West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dun Laoghaire | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Galway East | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Galway West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Kerry County | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kildare North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kildare South | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Laois | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Offaly | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Limerick City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Longford-Westmeath | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Louth | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mayo | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Meath East | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Meath West | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Roscommon-Galway | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sligo-Leitrim | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tipperary | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Waterford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Wexford | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Wicklow | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| STATE | 43 | 55 | 8 | 22 | 30 | 0 |
These estimates also need to take account of the candidate and competition trends unique to the different constituency. Amending the model to account for seats that may be won or lost on the basis of estimates here being based on support levels derived due to a large/small number of candidates contesting the election in 2011 (as in the large number of independent candidates competing in constituencies such as Wicklow or Laois-Offaly in 2011) or one candidate polling especially well in that election (e.g. the Shane Ross vote in Dublin South/Mick Wallace vote in Wexford) in a manner that would not amount to an extra seat for another member of the same party/grouping. Vote transfer patterns and vote management issues (e.g. discrepancies between votes won by party front runners and their running mates which would see potential seat wins fall out of a party’s hands) also need to be accounted for. Taking these concerns into account, the amended seat allocations across the constituencies would look more like this:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | GP | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Clare | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cork East | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork North Central | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork South Central | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork South West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donegal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Central | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Mid West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dublin Fingal | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Bay North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin North West | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dublin Rathdown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin South Central | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Bay South | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin South West | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dublin West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dun Laoghaire | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Galway East | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Galway West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Kerry County | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kildare North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kildare South | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Laois | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Offaly | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Limerick City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Longford-Westmeath | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Louth | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mayo | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Meath East | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Meath West | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Roscommon-Galway | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sligo-Leitrim | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tipperary | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Waterford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Wexford | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Wicklow | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| STATE | 45 | 57 | 9 | 22 | 25 | 0 |
| % seats | 28.5 | 36.1 | 5.7 | 13.9 | 15.8 | 0.0 |
Based on these seat estimates, a Fine Gael-Labour (combined seat level of 66 seats) would fall well short of the number of seats required to form a government (79 seats); the same would apply in the case of a possible Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein alliance (combined seat level of 67 seats). To have a sufficient number of seats required to command a majority in Dail Eireann (79 seats in a 158 seat Dail, assuming a deputy from another party/grouping takes on the Ceann Comhairle role), a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein or Fine Gael-Labour alliance would need the support of at least twelve/thirteen or more, TDs from the independent ranks or from another political grouping to be able to form a government. A Fine Gael and Sinn Fein pairing would just about reach the 79-seat level (combined seat level of 79 seats), but such an alliance looks to be unlikely in the present political climate. Ultimately, based on these numbers a Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition government would be the only viable two-party coalition and such an alliance would command a very strong Dail majority (with a combined seat level of 102 seats).
Given the improved support levels for Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein relative to the 2011 General Election and figures in earlier (during 2010 and 2011) opinion poll figures, the seat estimates based on this constituency-level analysis still suggest a significant improvement in Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein seat levels relative to those won by these parties and groupings in the 2011 contest (especially given that the fact that there will be eight less seats in the next Dail has been factored into this analysis), effectively pointing to significant gains on the part of the Dail opposition since 2011. The same applies to the Independents and Others, but it is worth noting that, as opposed to the parties, the Independents and Others grouping is a very broad church and includes a range of parties, groups and individuals with very different ideological perspectives, including the Socialist Party and the People Before Profit alliance, as well as left-leaning independents and Fianna Fail-gene pool independents. Looking at the constituencies where this grouping is predicted to win seats in this model, it can be seen that left-leaning parties and independents would take 14 of the 25 seats being assigned to this grouping.
The seat level estimate for Labour is very stark (highlighting the fact that the PR-STV system is proportional, but only to a limited extent). Previous analyses have, moreover, suggested that, especially given the increased competition on the Left from Sinn Fein, other smaller left of centre parties and left-leaning independents, that it will be a struggle for Labour to win seats in most, if not all, constituencies if the party’s national support levels fall below the ten percent level, as has been shown in similar analyses of recent Sunday Independent-Millward Brown and Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI polls. Based on the analysis of this latest Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll and other polls covered in this post, Labour would be in serious trouble if their national support levels fall below ten percent as the party is also facing a “perfect storm” from electoral geography and changed competition levels. These factors include the reduction in Dail seat numbers (from 166 to 158) and other changes made to general election boundaries by the 2012 Constituency Commission (which militated against Labour while seeming to advantage other parties, but notably Fianna Fail) as well as the increased competition the party now faces on the Left from Sinn Fein, other smaller left-wing parties and left-of-centre independents, as well as from Fianna Fail. When Labour support levels fell to similarly low levels in the late 1990s and early-to-mid 2000s, the party was in a position to be helped in the 1997, 2002 and 2007 General Elections by transfers from lower placed candidates from the smaller left-wing parties, but on these figures Labour candidates would find themselves polling below candidates from Sinn Fein, the Socialist Party, the Workers and Unemployed Action Group or the People Before Profit Alliance, or left-leaning independents, in a number of constituencies. Instead of being in a position to possibly benefit from vote transfers (which themselves would be likely to dry up in any case), the Labour candidates would now in a number of cases be eliminated before the final count and would be providing the transfers to see candidates from other left-of-centre political groupings over the line. (If we look at the 1987 case study – we see Labour won 6.5% of the vote in the 1987 General Election and won 12 seats, but it is also worth noting that they did not contest nine constituencies in that election, whereas their 7% national vote is being distributed across all forty constituencies in this analysis, as with the most recent general elections in which Labour has contested all constituencies. In two of the twelve constituencies in 1987 where Labour won seats – Dublin South-Central, Dublin South-West, Galway West and Wexford – vote transfers were crucial in ensuring Labour won these these seats – i.e. Labour candidates were outside the seat positions on the first count but overtook candidates with higher first preference votes as counts progressed due to transfers from other candidates.
| Constituency | FPV | Total Poll | Quota | % FPV | Lab/quota |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 7,358 | 57,485 | 9,581 |
12.80 |
0.77 |
| Cork South-Central | 4,862 | 56,259 | 9,377 |
8.64 |
0.52 |
| Dublin South-Central | 4,701 | 51,692 | 8,616 |
9.09 |
0.55 |
| Dublin South-East | 3,480 | 38,270 | 7,655 |
9.09 |
0.45 |
| Dublin South-West | 5,065 | 41,454 | 8,291 |
12.22 |
0.61 |
| Dun Laoghaire | 6,484 | 55,702 | 9,284 |
11.64 |
0.70 |
| Galway West | 3,878 | 52,762 | 8,794 |
7.35 |
0.44 |
| Kerry North | 6,739 | 34,764 | 8,692 |
19.38 |
0.78 |
| Kildare | 7,567 | 53,705 | 8,951 |
14.09 |
0.85 |
| Louth | 6,205 | 46,809 | 9,362 |
13.26 |
0.66 |
| Wexford | 5,086 | 52,922 | 8,821 |
9.61 |
0.58 |
| Wicklow | 7,754 | 46,003 | 9,201 |
16.86 |
0.84 |
Voting statistics for constituencies in which Labour won seats at the 1987 General Election.
The table above shows that there was no constituency in 1987 in which a Labour candidate exceeded the quota and indeed successful Labour candidates, Ruairi Quinn and Michael D. Higgins won seats in their constituencies despite winning less than half of the quota in their first preference votes. In addition, Dick Spring came within a handful of votes of losing his seat in Kerry North.)
The changing seat numbers for the parties in the different analyses points to one reason why the Irish electoral system is not entirely one hundred percent proportional – thus underpinning the rationale behind this series of constituency level analyses of polling figures – as the manner in which constituency boundaries are drawn, or redrawn, can act to gives certain parties a significant advantage in terms of translating their vote tallies into seat wins. This knowledge, of course, formed the basis for the gerrymanders that marked the partisan boundary redrawal system which existed up to the 1977 General Election, with the party/parties in government being in a position to be able to redraw election boundaries in a manner that would allow them to pick up extra seats. In simplistic terms, in the 1960s and 1970s this amounted to the main government options seeking to create constituency units with odd-numbers of seats in the regions of the state where their support levels were highest (where a 50% share of the vote would be sufficient to allow them win 2 seats in a 3-seat constituency or 3 seats in a 5-seat constituency) and constituency units with even numbers of seats (i.e. 4-seat constituencies) where their support levels were weaker as a 40% share of the vote would be sufficient to allow them win 2 seats out of 4. Since the introduction of independent boundary commissions following the 1977 General Election, partisan influences no longer can skew the boundary drawing process in favour of a government party, or government parties, but as the example here shows a significant redrawal such as that envisaged in the 2012 Constituency Commission report will probably tend to disproportionately advantage, or disadvantage, certain parties or political groupings. Similarly, as the range of constituency level analyses prior to the 2011 General Election displayed, a party’s ability to take advantage of such disproportionality in the system, whether arising from constituency boundaries or a tendency for the Irish system to favour the larger parties, is dependent on that party maintaining its support at, or above, a certain level, as a fall in support for that party, even if relatively minimal, can lead to disproportionate level of potential seat losses if party support levels fall below a certain “tipping point”.
This concept of a “tipping point” is especially notable in the case of Fianna Fail. When the party’s support level fell below 20% in the latter part of 2010, this meant that the party – especially given its traditional catch all nature of support – was now in a position where it was struggling to win seats in a number of three-seat and four-seat constituencies, as well as five-seat constituencies in the Dublin region, where Fianna Fail support was notably weaker in 2011. The boundary changes associated with the 2012 Constituency Commission report acted to ensure the party would actually gain seats, irrespective of gains in support levels, as suggested by previous posts. With party support now over 20%, and with a very fractured political environment in which significant vote levels are being won by a number of different parties and political groupings, as opposed to the more straight-forward political landscape of the early 1980s, Fianna Fail is now in a position where it can expect to win seats in most of the larger (four and five seat) constituencies and will be competitive in most three-seat constituencies, especially in rural Ireland. This is translating into a disproportionate gain, relative to support trends, in seat levels for Fianna Fail. The level of seat gains suggested for Fianna Fail in this analysis also underpins the extent of “near misses” that the party endured in a number of constituencies at the last general election, meaning only a slight increase in support in a number of constituencies would translate such “near misses” into seat gains, especially with the assistance of the recent boundary changes in a number of cases. Unlike Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein prospects of transforming vote gains into seat gains is stymied by the party’s weakness in certain constituencies, in which the party is likely to remain uncompetitive even if it should gain a few extra percentage points in terms of support levels. The more regional nature of the Sinn Fein support base is ideal for translating smaller levels of support into seat levels in its stronger areas, but it means the party may struggle to make the significant levels of seat gains on the basis of further increases in support that Fianna Fail could hope to make. Ultimately the political landscape of the next Dail will be determined by what levels of support these parties are standing on when the next election takes place (which could be as late as Spring 2016) but it will also be shaped by the different parties’ geographies of support, and the extent to which these support geographies might entitle these to a “bias” in terms of seat levels relative to support levels, or see the parties winning fewer seats that their support levels would suggest.
***********
Support estimates for the different new European Elections constituencies would be as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | GP | |
| Dublin | 17% | 26% | 14% | 15% | 23% | 4% |
| Midlands-North-West | 24% | 29% | 6% | 21% | 17% | 1% |
| South | 25% | 31% | 9% | 14% | 20% | 1% |
On the basis of these figures, both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael would be confident of winning one seat in each of the different constituencies, although Fianna Fail would appear to less certain of winning a seat in Dublin than they would in the other constituencies. Fine Gael would well be in contention, based on these figures, to win a second seat in the South constituency – and possibly also the Midlands-North-West constituency – especially if the Independents and Others votes were split across a number of different contenders. The Independents and Others grouping would also be well placed to challenge for seats in all of these constituencies. Sinn Fein would appear to be well placed to win a seat in the Midlands-North-West constituency and would be in contention to win seats in the other two. Labour would not be in contention, based on these figures, to win seats in the South or Midlands-North-West constituencies and would need a good degree of fortune in terms of vote transfers to win a seat in Dublin.
Of course, this analysis cannot take account of the candidate effect and with European Elections in particular (in a similar vein to presidential elections) a strong/popular candidate can significantly improve a party’s fortunes in a particular constituency.
**************************
The constituency support estimates based on the Paddy Power-Red C poll figures (7th November 2013), when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | GP | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 40% | 28% | 8% | 15% | 7% | 3% |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 24% | 24% | 2% | 38% | 11% | 1% |
| Clare | 29% | 28% | 7% | 5% | 29% | 2% |
| Cork East | 27% | 29% | 16% | 20% | 6% | 1% |
| Cork North Central | 21% | 19% | 12% | 23% | 24% | 1% |
| Cork North West | 37% | 36% | 7% | 13% | 6% | 2% |
| Cork South Central | 39% | 24% | 9% | 13% | 13% | 3% |
| Cork South West | 35% | 36% | 7% | 12% | 8% | 2% |
| Donegal | 23% | 14% | 3% | 37% | 22% | 1% |
| Dublin Central | 15% | 10% | 12% | 23% | 37% | 2% |
| Dublin Mid West | 18% | 23% | 16% | 20% | 19% | 4% |
| Dublin Fingal | 22% | 23% | 13% | 5% | 29% | 9% |
| Dublin Bay North | 18% | 24% | 14% | 15% | 26% | 2% |
| Dublin North West | 19% | 14% | 21% | 33% | 12% | 1% |
| Dublin Rathdown | 13% | 25% | 8% | 4% | 43% | 8% |
| Dublin South Central | 13% | 15% | 17% | 23% | 28% | 2% |
| Dublin Bay South | 17% | 28% | 13% | 7% | 28% | 8% |
| Dublin South West | 15% | 22% | 16% | 21% | 22% | 3% |
| Dublin West | 24% | 20% | 13% | 10% | 31% | 2% |
| Dun Laoghaire | 22% | 26% | 14% | 4% | 29% | 5% |
| Galway East | 24% | 30% | 7% | 8% | 30% | 1% |
| Galway West | 25% | 22% | 5% | 9% | 38% | 2% |
| Kerry County | 15% | 22% | 7% | 16% | 38% | 1% |
| Kildare North | 21% | 25% | 15% | 9% | 27% | 2% |
| Kildare South | 32% | 25% | 14% | 10% | 17% | 2% |
| Laois | 38% | 25% | 6% | 21% | 10% | 0% |
| Offaly | 28% | 16% | 2% | 9% | 45% | 0% |
| Limerick City | 33% | 33% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 1% |
| Limerick | 28% | 38% | 8% | 6% | 19% | 1% |
| Longford-Westmeath | 30% | 29% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 1% |
| Louth | 21% | 21% | 9% | 33% | 11% | 5% |
| Mayo | 25% | 48% | 2% | 11% | 13% | 0% |
| Meath East | 29% | 30% | 10% | 15% | 14% | 1% |
| Meath West | 26% | 33% | 6% | 28% | 6% | 1% |
| Roscommon-Galway | 18% | 27% | 4% | 9% | 42% | 0% |
| Sligo-Leitrim | 30% | 23% | 4% | 26% | 17% | 1% |
| Tipperary | 18% | 18% | 7% | 8% | 49% | 1% |
| Waterford | 19% | 27% | 9% | 16% | 29% | 1% |
| Wexford | 25% | 24% | 9% | 9% | 32% | 1% |
| Wicklow | 14% | 27% | 8% | 16% | 33% | 2% |
Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | GP | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Clare | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cork East | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork North Central | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Cork North West | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork South Central | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork South West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donegal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Central | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Dublin Mid West | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Fingal | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Dublin Bay North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin North West | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dublin Rathdown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Dublin South Central | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Bay South | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Dublin South West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Dun Laoghaire | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Galway East | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Galway West | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Kerry County | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kildare North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kildare South | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Laois | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Offaly | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Limerick City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Limerick | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Longford-Westmeath | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Louth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Mayo | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Meath East | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Meath West | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Roscommon-Galway | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Sligo-Leitrim | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tipperary | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Waterford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Wexford | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Wicklow | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| STATE | 46 | 46 | 8 | 22 | 38 | 0 |
These estimates also need to take account of the candidate and competition trends unique to the different constituency. Amending the model to account for seats that may be won or lost on the basis of estimates here being based on support levels derived due to a large/small number of candidates contesting the election in 2011 (as in the large number of independent candidates competing in constituencies such as Wicklow or Laois-Offaly in 2011) or one candidate polling especially well in that election (e.g. the Shane Ross vote in Dublin South/Mick Wallace vote in Wexford) in a manner that would not amount to an extra seat for another member of the same party/grouping. Vote transfer patterns and vote management issues (e.g. discrepancies between votes won by party front runners and their running mates which would see potential seat wins fall out of a party’s hands) also need to be accounted for. Taking these concerns into account, the amended seat allocations across the constituencies would look more like this:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | GP | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Clare | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cork East | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork North Central | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Cork North West | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork South Central | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork South West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donegal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Central | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Mid West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dublin Fingal | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Bay North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin North West | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dublin Rathdown | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin South Central | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Bay South | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin South West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dun Laoghaire | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Galway East | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Galway West | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Kerry County | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kildare North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kildare South | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Laois | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Offaly | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Limerick City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Longford-Westmeath | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Louth | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mayo | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Meath East | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Meath West | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Roscommon-Galway | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Sligo-Leitrim | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tipperary | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Waterford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Wexford | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Wicklow | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| STATE | 48 | 50 | 9 | 22 | 29 | 0 |
| % seats | 30.4 | 31.6 | 5.7 | 13.9 | 18.4 | 0.0 |
Based on these seat estimates, a Fine Gael-Labour (combined seat level of 59 seats) would fall well (twenty seats) short of the number of seats required to form a government (79 seats); the same would apply in the case of a possible Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein alliance (combined seat level of 70 seats), although such an alliance would be relatively closer to achieving the required seats level than the current government alliance would be. To have a sufficient number of seats required to command a majority in Dail Eireann (79 seats in a 158 seat Dail, assuming a deputy from another party/grouping takes on the Ceann Comhairle role), a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein (or Fine Gael-Labour) alliance would need the support of at least nine (twenty) or more, TDs from the independent ranks or from another political grouping to be able to form a government. A Fine Gael and Sinn Fein pairing would also fall short of the 79-seat level (combined seat level of 72 seats), but such an alliance looks to be unlikely in the present political climate in any course. Ultimately, based on these numbers a Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition government would be the only viable two-party coalition and such an alliance would command a very strong Dail majority (with a combined seat level of 98 seats).
Given the improved support levels for Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein relative to the 2011 General Election and figures in earlier (during 2010 and 2011) opinion poll figures, the seat estimates based on this constituency-level analysis still suggest a significant improvement in Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein seat levels relative to those won by these parties and groupings in the 2011 contest (especially given that the fact that there will be eight less seats in the next Dail has been factored into this analysis), effectively pointing to significant gains on the part of the Dail opposition since 2011. The same applies to the Independents and Others, but it is worth noting that, as opposed to the parties, the Independents and Others grouping is a very broad church and includes a range of parties, groups and individuals with very different ideological perspectives, including the Socialist Party and the People Before Profit alliance, as well as left-leaning independents and Fianna Fail-gene pool independents. Looking at the constituencies where this grouping is predicted to win seats in this model, it can be seen that left-leaning parties and independents would take 16 of the 29 seats being assigned to this grouping.
Based on an analysis of these same poll figures, support estimates for the different new European Elections constituencies would be as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | GP | |
| Dublin | 18% | 22% | 14% | 14% | 27% | 4% |
| Midlands-North-West | 26% | 26% | 6% | 20% | 21% | 1% |
| South | 26% | 26% | 9% | 13% | 24% | 1% |
On the basis of these figures, both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael would be confident of winning one seat in each of the different constituencies, although Fianna Fail would appear to less certain of winning a seat in Dublin than they would in the other constituencies. Both parties would be in contention, based on these figures, to win a second seat in the Midlands-North-West and South constituencies, especially if the Independents and Others votes were split across a number of different contenders. The Independents and Others grouping would also be well placed to challenge for seats in all of these constituencies (in Dublin the votes assigned to the old United Left Alliance grouping would be estimated at 12.8%). Sinn Fein would appear to be well placed to win a seat in the Midlands-North-West constituency and would be in contention to win seats in the other two constituencies. Labour would not be in contention, based on these figures, to win seats in the South or Midlands-North-West constituencies and would need a good degree of fortune in terms of vote transfers to win a seat in Dublin, but on these figures the party would at least be competitive in that European constituency.
Of course, this analysis cannot take account of the candidate effect and with European Elections in particular (in a similar vein to presidential elections) a strong/popular candidate can significantly improve a party’s fortunes in a particular constituency.
*************************************
The constituency support estimates based on the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll figures (17th November 2013), when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | GP | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 38% | 29% | 7% | 19% | 5% | 2% |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 22% | 24% | 2% | 45% | 7% | 0% |
| Clare | 31% | 32% | 7% | 7% | 22% | 1% |
| Cork East | 25% | 30% | 16% | 24% | 4% | 1% |
| Cork North Central | 21% | 20% | 12% | 29% | 18% | 1% |
| Cork North West | 35% | 37% | 7% | 16% | 4% | 1% |
| Cork South Central | 39% | 25% | 9% | 17% | 9% | 1% |
| Cork South West | 34% | 38% | 7% | 15% | 6% | 1% |
| Donegal | 21% | 15% | 3% | 46% | 15% | 0% |
| Dublin Central | 16% | 11% | 13% | 31% | 29% | 1% |
| Dublin Mid West | 17% | 25% | 15% | 26% | 14% | 2% |
| Dublin Fingal | 24% | 27% | 14% | 7% | 23% | 5% |
| Dublin Bay North | 18% | 27% | 15% | 20% | 20% | 1% |
| Dublin North West | 18% | 14% | 19% | 40% | 8% | 1% |
| Dublin Rathdown | 14% | 30% | 9% | 6% | 36% | 4% |
| Dublin South Central | 13% | 16% | 17% | 31% | 21% | 1% |
| Dublin Bay South | 18% | 32% | 14% | 9% | 23% | 4% |
| Dublin South West | 15% | 24% | 16% | 27% | 17% | 1% |
| Dublin West | 25% | 22% | 14% | 14% | 24% | 1% |
| Dun Laoghaire | 23% | 31% | 15% | 5% | 23% | 3% |
| Galway East | 25% | 34% | 7% | 11% | 23% | 0% |
| Galway West | 27% | 25% | 5% | 12% | 30% | 1% |
| Kerry County | 16% | 25% | 7% | 22% | 30% | 0% |
| Kildare North | 22% | 28% | 15% | 13% | 21% | 1% |
| Kildare South | 32% | 27% | 14% | 13% | 13% | 1% |
| Laois | 35% | 26% | 5% | 26% | 7% | 0% |
| Offaly | 30% | 19% | 2% | 12% | 36% | 0% |
| Limerick City | 32% | 34% | 10% | 17% | 6% | 1% |
| Limerick | 28% | 41% | 8% | 8% | 14% | 0% |
| Longford-Westmeath | 29% | 31% | 13% | 17% | 10% | 0% |
| Louth | 20% | 22% | 8% | 40% | 8% | 2% |
| Mayo | 24% | 50% | 2% | 14% | 10% | 0% |
| Meath East | 28% | 32% | 10% | 19% | 11% | 1% |
| Meath West | 23% | 32% | 6% | 33% | 4% | 1% |
| Roscommon-Galway | 19% | 31% | 5% | 12% | 33% | 0% |
| Sligo-Leitrim | 28% | 24% | 3% | 32% | 12% | 0% |
| Tipperary | 20% | 21% | 7% | 11% | 40% | 0% |
| Waterford | 20% | 29% | 9% | 21% | 22% | 0% |
| Wexford | 26% | 27% | 10% | 12% | 25% | 0% |
| Wicklow | 15% | 30% | 8% | 21% | 25% | 1% |
Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | GP | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Clare | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cork East | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork North Central | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork South Central | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork South West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donegal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Central | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Mid West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dublin Fingal | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Bay North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin North West | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dublin Rathdown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Dublin South Central | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Bay South | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin South West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dun Laoghaire | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Galway East | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Galway West | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Kerry County | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kildare North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kildare South | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Laois | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Offaly | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Limerick City | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Longford-Westmeath | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Louth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Mayo | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Meath East | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Meath West | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Roscommon-Galway | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sligo-Leitrim | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tipperary | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Waterford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Wexford | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Wicklow | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| STATE | 42 | 51 | 9 | 29 | 27 | 0 |
These estimates also need to take account of the candidate and competition trends unique to the different constituency. Amending the model to account for seats that may be won or lost on the basis of estimates here being based on support levels derived due to a large/small number of candidates contesting the election in 2011 (as in the large number of independent candidates competing in constituencies such as Wicklow or Laois-Offaly in 2011) or one candidate polling especially well in that election (e.g. the Shane Ross vote in Dublin South/Mick Wallace vote in Wexford) in a manner that would not amount to an extra seat for another member of the same party/grouping. Vote transfer patterns and vote management issues (e.g. discrepancies between votes won by party front runners and their running mates which would see potential seat wins fall out of a party’s hands) also need to be accounted for. Taking these concerns into account, the amended seat allocations across the constituencies would look more like this:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | GP | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Clare | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cork East | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork North Central | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork South Central | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork South West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donegal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Central | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Mid West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dublin Fingal | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Bay North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin North West | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dublin Rathdown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin South Central | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Bay South | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin South West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dublin West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dun Laoghaire | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Galway East | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Galway West | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kerry County | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kildare North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kildare South | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Laois | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Offaly | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Limerick City | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Longford-Westmeath | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Louth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Mayo | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Meath East | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Meath West | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Roscommon-Galway | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sligo-Leitrim | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tipperary | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Waterford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Wexford | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Wicklow | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| STATE | 43 | 52 | 9 | 30 | 24 | 0 |
| % seats | 27.2 | 32.9 | 5.7 | 19.0 | 15.2 | 0.0 |
Based on these seat estimates, a Fine Gael-Labour (combined seat level of 61 seats) would fall well (eighteen seats) short of the number of seats required to form a government (79 seats); the same would apply in the case of a possible Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein alliance (combined seat level of 73 seats), although such an alliance would be relatively closer to achieving the required seats level than the current government alliance would be. To have a sufficient number of seats required to command a majority in Dail Eireann (79 seats in a 158 seat Dail, assuming a deputy from another party/grouping takes on the Ceann Comhairle role), a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein (or Fine Gael-Labour) alliance would need the support of at least six (eighteen) or more, TDs from the independent ranks or from another political grouping to be able to form a government. A Fine Gael and Sinn Fein pairing would however exceed the 79-seat level (combined seat level of 82 seats), but such an alliance looks to be unlikely in the present political climate in any course. Ultimately, based on these numbers a Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition government would be the only viable two-party coalition and such an alliance would command a very strong Dail majority (with a combined seat level of 95 seats).
Given the improved support levels for Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein relative to the 2011 General Election and figures in earlier (during 2010 and 2011) opinion poll figures, the seat estimates based on this constituency-level analysis still suggest a significant improvement in Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein seat levels relative to those won by these parties and groupings in the 2011 contest (especially given that the fact that there will be eight less seats in the next Dail has been factored into this analysis), effectively pointing to significant gains on the part of the Dail opposition since 2011. The same applies to the Independents and Others, but it is worth noting that, as opposed to the parties, the Independents and Others grouping is a very broad church and includes a range of parties, groups and individuals with very different ideological perspectives, including the Socialist Party and the People Before Profit alliance, as well as left-leaning independents and Fianna Fail-gene pool independents. Looking at the constituencies where this grouping is predicted to win seats in this model, it can be seen that left-leaning parties and independents would take 16 of the 29 seats being assigned to this grouping.
Based on an analysis of these same poll figures, support estimates for the different new European Elections constituencies would be as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | GP | |
| Dublin | 19% | 24% | 15% | 19% | 21% | 2% |
| Midlands-North-West | 25% | 27% | 6% | 26% | 15% | 1% |
| South | 26% | 29% | 9% | 17% | 18% | 1% |
On the basis of these figures, both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael would be confident of winning one seat in each of the different constituencies, although Fianna Fail would appear to less certain of winning a seat in Dublin than they would in the other constituencies. Both parties (and Fine Gael in particular) would be in contention, based on these figures, to win a second seat in the Midlands-North-West and South constituencies, especially if the Independents and Others votes were split across a number of different contenders. The Independents and Others grouping would also be well placed to challenge for seats in all of these constituencies (in Dublin the votes assigned to the old United Left Alliance grouping would be estimated at 9.0%). Sinn Fein would appear to be more than well placed to win a seat in the Midlands-North-West constituency and would be in strong contention to win seats in the other two constituencies. Labour would not be in contention, based on these figures, to win seats in the South or Midlands-North-West constituencies and would need a good degree of fortune in terms of vote transfers to win a seat in Dublin, but on these figures the party would at least be competitive in that European constituency.
Of course, this analysis cannot take account of the candidate effect and with European Elections in particular (in a similar vein to presidential elections) a strong/popular candidate can significantly improve a party’s fortunes in a particular constituency.
*************************************
The constituency support estimates based on the Sunday Business Post-Red C poll figures (24th November 2013), when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | GP | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 36% | 32% | 10% | 14% | 5% | 3% |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 22% | 29% | 3% | 36% | 9% | 1% |
| Clare | 27% | 33% | 9% | 5% | 24% | 2% |
| Cork East | 23% | 32% | 21% | 18% | 5% | 1% |
| Cork North Central | 20% | 22% | 16% | 21% | 20% | 1% |
| Cork North West | 33% | 40% | 9% | 11% | 5% | 2% |
| Cork South Central | 36% | 27% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 3% |
| Cork South West | 31% | 41% | 9% | 11% | 6% | 2% |
| Donegal | 22% | 17% | 4% | 37% | 19% | 1% |
| Dublin Central | 15% | 12% | 17% | 22% | 32% | 2% |
| Dublin Mid West | 16% | 26% | 20% | 18% | 16% | 4% |
| Dublin Fingal | 20% | 27% | 17% | 4% | 24% | 9% |
| Dublin Bay North | 16% | 28% | 19% | 14% | 22% | 2% |
| Dublin North West | 17% | 16% | 27% | 30% | 9% | 1% |
| Dublin Rathdown | 12% | 30% | 10% | 4% | 36% | 8% |
| Dublin South Central | 12% | 18% | 23% | 22% | 23% | 2% |
| Dublin Bay South | 15% | 31% | 17% | 6% | 23% | 7% |
| Dublin South West | 14% | 25% | 21% | 19% | 18% | 3% |
| Dublin West | 23% | 23% | 18% | 9% | 26% | 2% |
| Dun Laoghaire | 20% | 30% | 19% | 3% | 23% | 5% |
| Galway East | 22% | 35% | 9% | 7% | 25% | 1% |
| Galway West | 24% | 26% | 7% | 8% | 32% | 2% |
| Kerry County | 14% | 26% | 10% | 16% | 33% | 1% |
| Kildare North | 19% | 29% | 19% | 9% | 22% | 2% |
| Kildare South | 28% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 14% | 2% |
| Laois | 34% | 29% | 8% | 20% | 8% | 0% |
| Offaly | 28% | 21% | 3% | 9% | 40% | 0% |
| Limerick City | 30% | 37% | 14% | 12% | 7% | 1% |
| Limerick | 25% | 43% | 10% | 6% | 16% | 1% |
| Longford-Westmeath | 26% | 33% | 18% | 12% | 11% | 1% |
| Louth | 19% | 25% | 11% | 31% | 9% | 5% |
| Mayo | 22% | 53% | 3% | 10% | 11% | 0% |
| Meath East | 26% | 34% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 1% |
| Meath West | 23% | 37% | 8% | 25% | 5% | 1% |
| Roscommon-Galway | 17% | 32% | 6% | 8% | 36% | 0% |
| Sligo-Leitrim | 28% | 28% | 5% | 25% | 14% | 1% |
| Tipperary | 18% | 22% | 9% | 8% | 43% | 1% |
| Waterford | 18% | 31% | 12% | 15% | 24% | 1% |
| Wexford | 24% | 28% | 13% | 8% | 27% | 1% |
| Wicklow | 13% | 32% | 11% | 15% | 28% | 2% |
Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | GP | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Clare | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cork East | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork North Central | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork South Central | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork South West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donegal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Central | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Mid West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dublin Fingal | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Bay North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin North West | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dublin Rathdown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Dublin South Central | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Bay South | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin South West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dun Laoghaire | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Galway East | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Galway West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Kerry County | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kildare North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kildare South | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Laois | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Offaly | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Limerick City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Longford-Westmeath | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Louth | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mayo | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Meath East | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Meath West | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Roscommon-Galway | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sligo-Leitrim | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tipperary | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Waterford | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Wexford | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Wicklow | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| STATE | 38 | 58 | 13 | 20 | 29 | 0 |
These estimates also need to take account of the candidate and competition trends unique to the different constituency. Amending the model to account for seats that may be won or lost on the basis of estimates here being based on support levels derived due to a large/small number of candidates contesting the election in 2011 (as in the large number of independent candidates competing in constituencies such as Wicklow or Laois-Offaly in 2011) or one candidate polling especially well in that election (e.g. the Shane Ross vote in Dublin South/Mick Wallace vote in Wexford) in a manner that would not amount to an extra seat for another member of the same party/grouping. Vote transfer patterns and vote management issues (e.g. discrepancies between votes won by party front runners and their running mates which would see potential seat wins fall out of a party’s hands) also need to be accounted for. Taking these concerns into account, the amended seat allocations across the constituencies would look more like this:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | GP | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Clare | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cork East | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork North Central | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork South Central | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork South West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donegal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Central | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Mid West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dublin Fingal | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Bay North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin North West | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dublin Rathdown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin South Central | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Bay South | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dublin South West | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dublin West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dun Laoghaire | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Galway East | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Galway West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Kerry County | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kildare North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kildare South | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Laois | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Offaly | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Limerick City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Longford-Westmeath | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Louth | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mayo | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Meath East | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Meath West | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Roscommon-Galway | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sligo-Leitrim | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tipperary | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Waterford | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Wexford | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Wicklow | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| STATE | 40 | 60 | 16 | 20 | 22 | 0 |
| % seats | 25.3 | 38.0 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 13.9 | 0.0 |
Based on these seat estimates, a Fine Gael-Labour (combined seat level of 76 seats) would fall just (three seats) short of the number of seats required to form a government (79 seats); a possible Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein alliance (combined seat level of 60 seats), would be even further away from achieving the required seats level than the current government alliance would be. To have a sufficient number of seats required to command a majority in Dail Eireann (79 seats in a 158 seat Dail, assuming a deputy from another party/grouping takes on the Ceann Comhairle role), a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein (or Fine Gael-Labour) alliance would need the support of at least nineteen (three) or more, TDs from the independent ranks or from another political grouping to be able to form a government. A Fine Gael and Sinn Fein pairing would however just about exceed the 79-seat level (combined seat level of 80 seats), but such an alliance looks to be unlikely in the present political climate. A Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition government would be a more than viable two-party coalition and such an alliance would command a very strong Dail majority (with a combined seat level of 100 seats).
Given the improved support levels for Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein relative to the 2011 General Election and figures in earlier (during 2010 and 2011) opinion poll figures, the seat estimates based on this constituency-level analysis still still suggest a significant improvement in Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein seat levels relative to those won by these parties and groupings in the 2011 contest (especially given that the fact that there will be eight less seats in the next Dail has been factored into this analysis), effectively pointing to significant gains on the part of the Dail opposition since 2011. The same applies to the Independents and Others, but it is worth noting that, as opposed to the parties, the Independents and Others grouping is a very broad church and includes a range of parties, groups and individuals with very different ideological perspectives, including the Socialist Party and the People Before Profit alliance, as well as left-leaning independents and Fianna Fail-gene pool independents. Looking at the constituencies where this grouping is predicted to win seats in this model, it can be seen that left-leaning parties and independents would take 12 of the 22 seats being assigned to this grouping.
Based on an analysis of these same poll figures, support estimates for the different new European Elections constituencies would be as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | GP | |
| Dublin | 16% | 25% | 19% | 13% | 23% | 4% |
| Midlands-North-West | 24% | 30% | 8% | 19% | 18% | 1% |
| South | 24% | 31% | 11% | 12% | 20% | 1% |
On the basis of these figures, Fine Gael would be confident of winning one seat in each of the different constituencies and would be in contention for a second seat in the Midlands-North-West and South constituencies, especially if the Independents and Others votes were split across a number of different contenders. Fianna Fail would be certain of winning a seat in the South and Midlands-North-West constituencies, but would appear to less certain of winning a seat in Dublin than they would in the other constituencies. The Independents and Others grouping would also be well placed to challenge for seats in all of these constituencies (in Dublin the votes assigned to the old United Left Alliance grouping would be estimated at 9.6%). Sinn Fein would appear to be more than well placed to win a seat in the Midlands-North-West constituency and would be in contention to win seats in the other two constituencies. Labour would not be in contention, based on these figures, to win seats in the South or Midlands-North-West constituencies, but would appear likely to retain their seat in the Dublin constituency on the basis of these figures.
Of course, this analysis cannot take account of the candidate effect and with European Elections in particular (in a similar vein to presidential elections) a strong/popular candidate can significantly improve a party’s fortunes in a particular constituency.
*************************************
The constituency support estimates based on the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll figures (12th December 2013), when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 35% | 32% | 7% | 19% | 7% |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 20% | 26% | 2% | 45% | 7% |
| Clare | 28% | 36% | 7% | 7% | 22% |
| Cork East | 23% | 33% | 15% | 24% | 5% |
| Cork North Central | 19% | 22% | 12% | 29% | 17% |
| Cork North West | 32% | 41% | 7% | 15% | 5% |
| Cork South Central | 36% | 28% | 9% | 17% | 11% |
| Cork South West | 30% | 41% | 7% | 15% | 7% |
| Donegal | 20% | 16% | 3% | 46% | 15% |
| Dublin Central | 15% | 13% | 13% | 31% | 28% |
| Dublin Mid West | 16% | 27% | 15% | 26% | 16% |
| Dublin Fingal | 21% | 30% | 13% | 6% | 29% |
| Dublin Bay North | 16% | 29% | 15% | 20% | 19% |
| Dublin North West | 17% | 16% | 19% | 40% | 9% |
| Dublin Rathdown | 13% | 33% | 8% | 6% | 40% |
| Dublin South Central | 12% | 18% | 18% | 31% | 21% |
| Dublin Bay South | 16% | 34% | 14% | 9% | 27% |
| Dublin South West | 14% | 26% | 16% | 27% | 17% |
| Dublin West | 24% | 25% | 14% | 14% | 24% |
| Dun Laoghaire | 21% | 33% | 15% | 5% | 25% |
| Galway East | 23% | 38% | 7% | 11% | 22% |
| Galway West | 25% | 28% | 5% | 12% | 29% |
| Kerry County | 15% | 28% | 7% | 23% | 28% |
| Kildare North | 20% | 31% | 15% | 13% | 21% |
| Kildare South | 29% | 30% | 14% | 14% | 13% |
| Laois | 33% | 29% | 5% | 27% | 7% |
| Offaly | 29% | 22% | 2% | 13% | 34% |
| Limerick City | 29% | 37% | 10% | 17% | 6% |
| Limerick | 26% | 45% | 8% | 8% | 13% |
| Longford-Westmeath | 27% | 34% | 13% | 17% | 9% |
| Louth | 18% | 23% | 8% | 40% | 11% |
| Mayo | 21% | 54% | 2% | 14% | 9% |
| Meath East | 26% | 35% | 10% | 19% | 10% |
| Meath West | 21% | 35% | 6% | 33% | 5% |
| Roscommon-Galway | 18% | 35% | 5% | 12% | 31% |
| Sligo-Leitrim | 26% | 27% | 3% | 32% | 11% |
| Tipperary | 19% | 24% | 7% | 11% | 38% |
| Waterford | 18% | 32% | 9% | 21% | 20% |
| Wexford | 25% | 30% | 10% | 12% | 23% |
| Wicklow | 14% | 33% | 8% | 21% | 24% |
Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Clare | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cork East | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cork North Central | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork South Central | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cork South West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donegal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Dublin Central | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Dublin Mid West | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Dublin Fingal | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Dublin Bay North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Dublin North West | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Dublin Rathdown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Dublin South Central | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Dublin Bay South | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dublin South West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Dublin West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Dun Laoghaire | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Galway East | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Galway West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kerry County | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kildare North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kildare South | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Laois | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Offaly | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Limerick City | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Longford-Westmeath | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Louth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Mayo | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Meath East | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Meath West | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Roscommon-Galway | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sligo-Leitrim | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Tipperary | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Waterford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Wexford | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Wicklow | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| STATE | 38 | 55 | 7 | 30 | 28 |
These estimates also need to take account of the candidate and competition trends unique to the different constituency. Amending the model to account for seats that may be won or lost on the basis of estimates here being based on support levels derived due to a large/small number of candidates contesting the election in 2011 (as in the large number of independent candidates competing in constituencies such as Wicklow or Laois-Offaly in 2011) or one candidate polling especially well in that election (e.g. the Shane Ross vote in Dublin South/Mick Wallace vote in Wexford) in a manner that would not amount to an extra seat for another member of the same party/grouping. Vote transfer patterns and vote management issues (e.g. discrepancies between votes won by party front runners and their running mates which would see potential seat wins fall out of a party’s hands) also need to be accounted for. Taking these concerns into account, the amended seat allocations across the constituencies would look more like this:
| FF | FG | LB | SF | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Clare | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cork East | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cork North Central | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cork South Central | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cork South West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donegal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Dublin Central | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Dublin Mid West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dublin Fingal | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Dublin Bay North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Dublin North West | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Dublin Rathdown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dublin South Central | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Dublin Bay South | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dublin South West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Dublin West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Dun Laoghaire | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Galway East | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Galway West | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kerry County | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kildare North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kildare South | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Laois | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Offaly | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Limerick City | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Longford-Westmeath | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Louth | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Mayo | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Meath East | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Meath West | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Roscommon-Galway | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sligo-Leitrim | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Tipperary | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Waterford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Wexford | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Wicklow | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| STATE | 38 | 58 | 8 | 32 | 22 |
| % seats | 24.1 | 36.7 | 5.1 | 20.3 | 13.9 |
Based on these seat estimates, a Fine Gael-Labour (combined seat level of 66 seats) would fall well short of the number of seats required to form a government (79 seats); a possible Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein alliance (combined seat level of 70 seats), would be somewhat closer required seats level than the current government alliance would be but would still be a significant number of seats short of this. To have a sufficient number of seats required to command a majority in Dail Eireann (79 seats in a 158 seat Dail, assuming a deputy from another party/grouping takes on the Ceann Comhairle role), a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein (or Fine Gael-Labour) alliance would need the support of at least nine (thirteen) or more, TDs from the independent ranks or from another political grouping to be able to form a government. A Fine Gael and Sinn Fein pairing would however comfortably exceed the 79-seat level (combined seat level of 90 seats), but such an alliance looks to be unlikely in the present political climate. A Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition government would be a more than viable two-party coalition and such an alliance would command a very strong Dail majority (with a combined seat level of 96 seats).
Given the improved support levels for Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein relative to the 2011 General Election and figures in earlier (during 2010 and 2011) opinion poll figures, the seat estimates based on this constituency-level analysis still still suggest a significant improvement in Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein seat levels relative to those won by these parties and groupings in the 2011 contest (especially given that the fact that there will be eight less seats in the next Dail has been factored into this analysis), effectively pointing to significant gains on the part of the Dail opposition since 2011. The same applies to the Independents and Others, but it is worth noting that, as opposed to the parties, the Independents and Others grouping is a very broad church and includes a range of parties, groups and individuals with very different ideological perspectives, including the Socialist Party and the People Before Profit alliance, as well as left-leaning independents and Fianna Fail-gene pool independents. Looking at the constituencies where this grouping is predicted to win seats in this model, it can be seen that left-leaning parties and independents would take 12 of the 22 seats being assigned to this grouping.
Irish Politics Forum 
It is important to realise that the 9% attributed to Labour by RED C is not an increase on the 6% attributed to it on Oct 1 by Irish Times IPSOS/MRBI. This is because these polling companies process the raw data quite differently. Adrian Kavanagh has pointed out that Labour is polling consistently higher in Red C polls. In previous comments, I have shown how Red C unduly elevates the Labour (and the FG) votes. This is basically because REd C allocates half the “Don’T Knows” (after the c. 10% who are unlikely to vote are excluded) in the proportion achieved by the parties in the last general election as recalled by those polled! This cannot fail to advantage Labour and FG and to disadvantage FF and SF. I believe that this process is unjustified in a rapidly changing and unprecedented political situation, The IPSOS/MRBI figure(6%) for Labour is the lowest since 1987. The REdD C figure(9%) for Labour is the lowest for decades.
RED C explains its treatment of raw data here:
http://redcresearch.ie/blog/do-undecided-voters-desire-for-new-party
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You keep referring to a Fianna Fail/Sinn Fein Coalition, or a Labour Party/Fine Gael one. Is the 1948 experience not more relevant, Fine Gael, the then two Labour Parties, Clann na Pobhlacta, the Farmers Party and assorted Independents? The Leader of Clann was the former Chief of Staff of the IRA in the 1930s. Does that not sound familiar?
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