The Pre-Election Polls: Constitiuency-level analyses of the late April and May opinions polls

Adrian Kavanagh, first posted 28th April 2014, with later updates

A series of opinion polls published in the weeks leading up to the May 23rd Local and European elections brought further bad news for the government parties, while offering very positive messages for the Independents and Others grouping and for Sinn Fein in the lead up to the May 23rd local and European elections. The RTE poll of polls (21st May 2014) estimated party support levels (across the most recent opinion polls) as follows: Fine Gael 24%, Fianna Fail 22%, Sinn Fein 22%, Labour Party 7%, Independents, Green Party and Others 26%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 38,, Fine Gael 45, Sinn Fein 32, Labour 2, Independents, Green Party and Others 41The Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll (20th May 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll on 4th April): Fine Gael 23% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 23% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 19% (down 2%), Labour Party 7% (down 1%), Independents, Green Party and Others 28% (up 7%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 41, Fine Gael 44, Sinn Fein 26, Labour 2, Independents, Green Party and Others 45. The Irish Independent-Millward Brown poll (19th May 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll): Fine Gael 21% (down 4%), Fianna Fail 20% (down 3%), Sinn Fein 23% (up 2%), Labour Party 6% (NC), Green Party 2% (NC), Independents and Others 27% (up 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 36, Fine Gael 41, Sinn Fein 37, Labour 0, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 43. The Irish Sun-Red C poll (19th May 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll): Fine Gael 25% (NC), Fianna Fail 20% (down 1%), Sinn Fein 20% (up 2%), Labour Party 8% (down 3%), Green Party 2% (NC), Independents and Others 24% (up 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 37, Fine Gael 47, Sinn Fein 28, Labour 7, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 38. The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (18th May 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll) – although this asked about voting intentions at the upcoming local elections and not a general election per se – : Fine Gael 25% (up 4%), Fianna Fail 22% (up 2%), Sinn Fein 17% (down 3%), Labour Party 9% (NC), Green Party 4% (up 1%), Independents and Others 26% (up 5%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 37, Fine Gael 51, Sinn Fein 25, Labour 3, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 41.

The Sunday Business Post-Red C tracking poll (4th May 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll): Fine Gael 25% (down 1%), Fianna Fail 21% (down 1%), Sinn Fein 18% (down 3%), Labour Party 7% (down 4%), Green Party 3%/Independents and Others 27% (up 5% combined). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 36, Fine Gael 50, Sinn Fein 24, Labour 14, Green Party ,  Independents and Others 35. The Irish Independent-Millward Brown poll (28th April 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll): Fine Gael 25% (down 4%), Fianna Fail 23% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 21% (up 1%), Labour Party 6% (NC), Green Party, Independents and Others 25% (up 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 37, Fine Gael 49, Sinn Fein 33, Labour 0,  Independents, Green Party and Others 39. The Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll (20th April 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll): Fine Gael 29% (up 2%), Sinn Fein 20% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 22% (up 1%), Labour Party 6% (down 2%), Green Party 2% (NC), Independents and Others 21% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 37, Fine Gael 56, Sinn Fein 30, Labour 0, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 33.  The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (20th April 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll): Fine Gael 21% (down 9%), Sinn Fein 20% (up 2%), Fianna Fail 20% (up 1%), Labour Party 9% (NC), Green Party 4% (up 1%), Independents and Others 26% (up 5%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 35, Fine Gael 40, Sinn Fein 32, Labour 8, Green Party 3, Independents and Others 40.

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Constituency support estimates for different parties and groupings form the basis of the general approach taken with this analysis, which seeks to ask the following question in relation to different opinion poll results – what do these poll figures mean in terms of the likely number of Dail seats won by the different parties and groupings? Although the Irish electoral system is classified as a proportional electoral system, the proportion of seats won by parties will not measure up exactly to their actual share of the first preference votes, mainly because geography has an impact here – these first preference votes need to be filtered through the system of Irish electoral constituencies (and the different numbers of seats that are apportioned to these). In order to address this question, I estimate what the party first preference votes would be in the different constituencies, assuming similar (proportional) changes in party vote shares in all constituencies to those that are being suggested by a particular opinion poll. This of course is a very rough model and it  cannot take appropriate account of the fact that changing support levels between elections tend to vary geographically, while it also fails to take account of the local particularities of the different regions in cases where no regional figures are produced in association with different national opinion polls meaning that there is no scope to carry out separate regional analyses based on these poll figures. Thus constituency support estimates for different parties/groupings will be over-estimated in some constituencies and under-estimated in others, but the expectation would be that the overall national seat figures figures estimated will be relatively close to the true level, given that over-estimates in certain constituencies will be offset by under-estimates in others. Based on these estimated constituency support figures, I proceed to estimate the destination of seats in the different constituencies. The constituency level analysis involves the assigning seat levels to different parties and political groupings on the basis of constituency support estimates and simply using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats, while also taking account of the factors of vote transfers and vote splitting/management (based on vote transfer/management patterns observed in the February 2011 election). Due to unusually high/low support levels for some parties or political groupings in certain constituencies in the previous election, the model may throw up occasional constituency predictions that are unlikely to pan out in a “real election”, but of course the estimates here cannot be seen as highly accurate estimates of support levels at the constituency level as in a “real election” party support changes will vary significantly across constituency given uneven geographical shifts in support levels. But the ultimate aim of this model is to get an overall, national-level, estimate of seat numbers and these are based, as noted earlier, on the proviso that an over-prediction in one constituency may be offset by an under-prediction in another constituency.  Based on such an analysis and using the new constituency units (as defined in the 2012 Constituency Commission report), these analyses estimates what party seat levels would be, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election. For a variety of reasons (including the impact of high levels of undecided voters in a specific poll), the actual result of an election may vary from the figures suggested by an opinion poll, even if the poll is carried out relatively close to election day, or on election day itself as in the case of exit polls, but the likelihood of such variation is not something that can be factored into this model. I have made some further corrections to the base support figures for the different parties for this analysis to take better account of the impacts on support of the 2012 Constituency Commission report boundary changes with especial reference to the Dublin constituencies. For instance, these figures better reflect the weaker positions of Fine Gael and Fianna Fail in Dublin Central after the moving out of the Ashtown area to Dublin West and the Botanic/Drumcondra area to Dublin North West, but also their stronger positions in Dublin West and Dublin North West. Fine Gael are assigned an extra seat in Dun Laoghaire on the basis that the Ceann Comhairle, Sean Barrett, will be automatically returned at the next general election (unless he decides to retire from politics before this) and this constituency will effectively be rendered a three-seat contest at the next general election. (Changes in constituency boundaries as outlined in the 2012 Constituency Commisison report have been factored in to this analysis. An overview of the political impacts of these changes on the adriankavanaghelections.org elections commentary site suggests that Fianna Fail would seem to be the party most likely to be positively effected by the redrawing of the constituency boundaries, with the Labour Party being the party likely to be the most adversely effected by these changes.) Note that the approach used in this analysis is different to those of the constituency level analyses of the 2011-13 in that it now takes account of defections/changing party affiliations for people who were candidates in the 2011 General Election, as will be outlined in greater detail later in this post (and as such the seat estimates for this, and later posts, cannot be directly compared with those for the 2011, 2012 and 2013 analyses of post-General Election 2011 opinion polls). In cases where a General Election 2011 candidate has definitely left a party (or the independents ranks) to join another party or to become an independent, a portion of their 2011 will be taken away from the constituency base figures for their former party/grouping and added to those of their new party/grouping. The approach taken in the run up to the 2011 General Election was to assign all of the votes won by that candidate to their new grouping, but the actual 2011 results showed that this was an over-estimation of the likely impact  of such changes. For instance the Labour Party constituency estimates for Mayo and Roscommon-South Leitrim following the moves of Jerry Cowley and John Kelly into the Labour Party ranks were well in excess of the actual votes won by that party in those constituencies. In this approach, half of the votes won by a candidate in the 2011 contest will be assigned to their new party/grouping while the rest of the votes will remain assigned to their old party/grouping. Where a constituency boundary change is involved, meaning that part(s) of a candidate’s old constituency is now moved into another constituency/other constituencies, the base figures for all these constituencies will be recalculated to take account of this. For instance, the impact of Peter Mathews leaving the Fine Gael ranks means that the Fine Gael and Non Party base figures are altered in Dublin Rathdown, but also in the Dublin South-West and Dun Laoghaire constituencies. Note that this approach will not take account of candidates who have lost the party whip but who may ultimately return to the party at a later date or who have been temporarily suspended from their party, as in the cases of Brain Walsh (Fine Gael, Galway West) or Peadar Toibin (Sinn Fein, Meath West). This approach also takes account of those candidates who did not win Dail seats at the 2011 contest, including people like Fidelma Healy-Eames (Galway West), Eddie Fitzpatrick (Offaly), Jenny McHugh (Meath West) and Tom Fortune (Wicklow). In the wake of Patrick Nulty’s resignation, the correction made in Dublin West to the Labour and Independent/Non Party bases figures has now been reversed there.

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The constituency support estimates based on the RTE Poll of Polls (20th May 2014), when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:

Constituency FF FG LB SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 36% 28% 6% 21% 10%
Cavan-Monaghan 20% 22% 2% 47% 10%
Clare 28% 30% 6% 8% 29%
Cork East 24% 29% 13% 27% 7%
Cork North Central 19% 18% 9% 30% 23%
Cork North West 34% 36% 6% 17% 7%
Cork South Central 36% 24% 7% 18% 15%
Cork South West 32% 36% 6% 17% 9%
Donegal 19% 13% 2% 47% 19%
Dublin Central 18% 13% 10% 27% 32%
Dublin Mid West 16% 23% 12% 27% 22%
Dublin Fingal 20% 21% 10% 6% 42%
Dublin Bay North 15% 19% 9% 19% 39%
Dublin North West 13% 10% 10% 41% 26%
Dublin Rathdown 11% 20% 6% 6% 57%
Dublin South Central 12% 15% 14% 32% 27%
Dublin Bay South 7% 18% 9% 17% 48%
Dublin South West 14% 20% 13% 28% 25%
Dublin West 22% 20% 12% 14% 32%
Dun Laoghaire 21% 27% 12% 5% 35%
Galway East 27% 30% 4% 11% 28%
Galway West 23% 20% 4% 12% 41%
Kerry County 14% 22% 6% 23% 35%
Kildare North 20% 26% 13% 13% 28%
Kildare South 30% 26% 12% 15% 18%
Laois 35% 24% 5% 29% 8%
Offaly 29% 17% 2% 12% 40%
Limerick City 30% 32% 8% 18% 13%
Limerick 28% 41% 7% 9% 16%
Longford-Westmeath 27% 29% 10% 18% 18%
Louth 18% 19% 6% 42% 15%
Mayo 23% 48% 2% 15% 12%
Meath East 26% 30% 9% 20% 14%
Meath West 29% 29% 2% 34% 6%
Roscommon-Galway 16% 20% 4% 11% 49%
Sligo-Leitrim 25% 21% 3% 32% 19%
Tipperary 18% 19% 6% 11% 46%
Waterford 18% 26% 7% 21% 27%
Wexford 24% 25% 8% 13% 30%
Wicklow 12% 21% 5% 20% 41%

Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:

Constituency FF FG LB SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 0 1 0
Cavan-Monaghan 1 1 0 2 0
Clare 1 2 0 0 1
Cork East 1 2 0 1 0
Cork North Central 1 1 0 1 1
Cork North West 1 2 0 0 0
Cork South Central 2 1 0 1 0
Cork South West 1 2 0 0 0
Donegal 1 0 0 3 1
Dublin Central 1 0 0 1 1
Dublin Mid West 1 1 0 1 1
Dublin Fingal 1 1 0 0 3
Dublin Bay North 1 1 0 1 2
Dublin North West 0 0 0 2 1
Dublin Rathdown 0 1 0 0 2
Dublin South Central 0 1 0 1 2
Dublin Bay South 0 1 0 1 2
Dublin South West 1 1 0 2 1
Dublin West 1 1 0 0 2
Dun Laoghaire 1 2 0 0 1
Galway East 1 1 0 0 1
Galway West 1 1 0 0 3
Kerry County 1 1 0 1 2
Kildare North 1 1 0 0 2
Kildare South 1 1 0 0 1
Laois 1 1 0 1 0
Offaly 1 0 0 0 2
Limerick City 1 2 0 1 0
Limerick 1 2 0 0 0
Longford-Westmeath 1 1 0 1 1
Louth 1 1 0 2 1
Mayo 1 3 0 0 0
Meath East 1 1 0 1 0
Meath West 1 1 0 1 0
Roscommon-Galway 0 1 0 0 2
Sligo-Leitrim 1 1 0 1 1
Tipperary 1 1 0 0 3
Waterford 1 1 0 1 1
Wexford 1 1 0 1 2
Wicklow 0 1 0 1 3
STATE 36 46 0 30 46

These estimates also need to take account of the candidate and competition trends unique to the different constituency. Amending the model to account for seats that may be won or lost on the basis of estimates here being based on support levels derived due to a large/small number of candidates contesting the election in 2011 (as in the large number of independent candidates competing in constituencies such as Wicklow or Laois-Offaly in 2011) or one candidate polling especially well in that election (e.g. the Shane Ross vote in Dublin South/Mick Wallace vote in Wexford) in a manner that would not amount to an extra seat for another member of the same party/grouping. Vote transfer patterns and vote management issues (e.g. discrepancies between votes won by party front runners and their running mates which would see potential seat wins fall out of a party’s hands) also need to be accounted for. Taking these concerns into account, the amended seat allocations across the constituencies would look more like this:

Constituency FF FG LB SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 0 1 0
Cavan-Monaghan 1 1 0 2 0
Clare 1 2 0 0 1
Cork East 1 2 0 1 0
Cork North Central 1 1 0 1 1
Cork North West 2 1 0 0 0
Cork South Central 2 1 0 1 0
Cork South West 1 2 0 0 0
Donegal 1 1 0 2 1
Dublin Central 1 0 0 1 1
Dublin Mid West 1 1 0 1 1
Dublin Fingal 1 1 0 0 3
Dublin Bay North 1 1 0 1 2
Dublin North West 0 0 0 2 1
Dublin Rathdown 0 1 0 0 2
Dublin South Central 0 1 1 1 1
Dublin Bay South 0 1 0 1 2
Dublin South West 1 1 1 1 1
Dublin West 1 1 0 1 1
Dun Laoghaire 1 2 0 0 1
Galway East 1 1 0 0 1
Galway West 1 1 0 1 2
Kerry County 1 1 0 1 2
Kildare North 1 1 0 1 1
Kildare South 1 1 0 0 1
Laois 1 1 0 1 0
Offaly 1 0 0 0 2
Limerick City 1 2 0 1 0
Limerick 1 2 0 0 0
Longford-Westmeath 1 1 0 1 1
Louth 1 1 0 2 1
Mayo 1 2 0 1 0
Meath East 1 1 0 1 0
Meath West 1 1 0 1 0
Roscommon-Galway 0 1 0 0 2
Sligo-Leitrim 1 1 0 1 1
Tipperary 1 1 0 0 3
Waterford 1 1 0 1 1
Wexford 1 1 0 1 2
Wicklow 1 1 0 1 2
STATE 38 45 2 32 41
% Seats 24.1 28.5 1.3 20.3 25.9

Based on these seat estimates, a Fine Gael-Labour (combined seat level of 47 seats) would fall well short of the number of seats required to form a government (79 seats), but a potential Sinn Fein-Fianna Fail alliance (combined seat level of 70 seats) would come somewhat closer to this 79 seat target.  To have a sufficient number of seats required to command a majority in Dail Eireann (79 seats in a 158 seat Dail, assuming a deputy from another party/grouping takes on the Ceann Comhairle role), a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein (or Fine Gael-Labour) alliance would need the support of at least nine (thirty two) or more, TDs from the independent ranks, or from another political grouping, to be able to form a government. A Fine Gael and Sinn Fein pairing would also fail (albeit by a very narrow margin) to have a sufficient number of seats (combined seat level of 77 seats) to command a majority in Dail Eireann, but such an alliance looks to be unlikely in the present political climate in any course. Based on these numbers, a potential Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition government would be the only two-party alliance able to muster enough seats to form a two-party coalition without needing the support of one or two other Dail deputiess (with a combined seat level of 83 seats). The reason why such two-party coalitions would appear to be difficult prospects could of course be attributed to yet another very strong showing (in support and seat estimates terms) for the different groupings associated with the Independent and Others grouping.

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The constituency support estimates based on the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll (20th May 2014), when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:

Constituency FF FG LB SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 38% 27% 6% 18% 11%
Cavan-Monaghan 22% 22% 2% 43% 11%
Clare 29% 28% 6% 7% 31%
Cork East 26% 28% 14% 24% 8%
Cork North Central 20% 18% 10% 27% 25%
Cork North West 36% 35% 6% 15% 8%
Cork South Central 38% 23% 7% 16% 16%
Cork South West 34% 35% 6% 15% 10%
Donegal 21% 13% 2% 42% 21%
Dublin Central 19% 13% 10% 23% 35%
Dublin Mid West 17% 22% 13% 24% 24%
Dublin Fingal 21% 20% 10% 5% 44%
Dublin Bay North 16% 18% 9% 16% 42%
Dublin North West 14% 10% 10% 37% 29%
Dublin Rathdown 12% 19% 6% 5% 59%
Dublin South Central 13% 15% 14% 28% 30%
Dublin Bay South 8% 17% 9% 15% 51%
Dublin South West 15% 20% 13% 25% 28%
Dublin West 23% 19% 12% 12% 34%
Dun Laoghaire 21% 26% 12% 4% 37%
Galway East 28% 29% 4% 9% 30%
Galway West 24% 19% 4% 10% 43%
Kerry County 15% 21% 6% 20% 38%
Kildare North 21% 25% 12% 12% 30%
Kildare South 31% 25% 12% 13% 19%
Laois 38% 24% 5% 25% 8%
Offaly 30% 16% 2% 10% 42%
Limerick City 31% 31% 9% 16% 14%
Limerick 29% 39% 7% 8% 17%
Longford-Westmeath 28% 28% 10% 15% 19%
Louth 19% 20% 7% 38% 17%
Mayo 24% 47% 2% 14% 13%
Meath East 28% 30% 9% 18% 16%
Meath West 31% 29% 2% 30% 7%
Roscommon-Galway 17% 19% 3% 10% 51%
Sligo-Leitrim 27% 21% 3% 29% 21%
Tipperary 18% 18% 6% 9% 49%
Waterford 19% 26% 7% 19% 30%
Wexford 25% 24% 8% 11% 32%
Wicklow 13% 20% 5% 17% 44%

Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:

Constituency FF FG LB SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 0 1 0
Cavan-Monaghan 1 1 0 2 0
Clare 1 1 0 0 2
Cork East 1 2 0 1 0
Cork North Central 1 1 0 1 1
Cork North West 2 1 0 0 0
Cork South Central 2 1 0 1 0
Cork South West 1 2 0 0 0
Donegal 1 0 0 3 1
Dublin Central 1 0 0 1 1
Dublin Mid West 1 1 0 1 1
Dublin Fingal 1 1 0 0 3
Dublin Bay North 1 1 0 1 2
Dublin North West 0 0 0 2 1
Dublin Rathdown 0 1 0 0 2
Dublin South Central 0 1 0 1 2
Dublin Bay South 0 1 0 0 3
Dublin South West 1 1 0 1 2
Dublin West 1 1 0 0 2
Dun Laoghaire 1 2 0 0 1
Galway East 1 1 0 0 1
Galway West 1 1 0 0 3
Kerry County 1 1 0 1 2
Kildare North 1 1 0 0 2
Kildare South 1 1 0 0 1
Laois 1 1 0 1 0
Offaly 1 0 0 0 2
Limerick City 2 1 0 1 0
Limerick 1 2 0 0 0
Longford-Westmeath 1 1 0 1 1
Louth 1 1 0 2 1
Mayo 1 3 0 0 0
Meath East 1 1 0 1 0
Meath West 1 1 0 1 0
Roscommon-Galway 0 1 0 0 2
Sligo-Leitrim 1 1 0 1 1
Tipperary 1 1 0 0 3
Waterford 1 1 0 1 1
Wexford 2 1 0 0 2
Wicklow 0 1 0 1 3
STATE 39 43 0 27 49

These estimates also need to take account of the candidate and competition trends unique to the different constituency. Amending the model to account for seats that may be won or lost on the basis of estimates here being based on support levels derived due to a large/small number of candidates contesting the election in 2011 (as in the large number of independent candidates competing in constituencies such as Wicklow or Laois-Offaly in 2011) or one candidate polling especially well in that election (e.g. the Shane Ross vote in Dublin South/Mick Wallace vote in Wexford) in a manner that would not amount to an extra seat for another member of the same party/grouping. Vote transfer patterns and vote management issues (e.g. discrepancies between votes won by party front runners and their running mates which would see potential seat wins fall out of a party’s hands) also need to be accounted for. Taking these concerns into account, the amended seat allocations across the constituencies would look more like this:

Constituency FF FG LB SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 0 1 0
Cavan-Monaghan 1 1 0 2 0
Clare 2 1 0 0 1
Cork East 1 2 0 1 0
Cork North Central 1 1 0 1 1
Cork North West 2 1 0 0 0
Cork South Central 2 1 0 1 0
Cork South West 1 2 0 0 0
Donegal 1 1 0 2 1
Dublin Central 1 0 0 1 1
Dublin Mid West 1 1 0 1 1
Dublin Fingal 1 1 0 0 3
Dublin Bay North 1 1 0 1 2
Dublin North West 0 0 0 2 1
Dublin Rathdown 0 1 0 0 2
Dublin South Central 0 1 1 1 1
Dublin Bay South 0 1 0 0 3
Dublin South West 1 1 1 1 1
Dublin West 1 1 0 0 2
Dun Laoghaire 1 2 0 0 1
Galway East 1 1 0 0 1
Galway West 1 1 0 0 3
Kerry County 1 1 0 1 2
Kildare North 1 1 0 0 2
Kildare South 1 1 0 0 1
Laois 1 1 0 1 0
Offaly 1 0 0 0 2
Limerick City 2 1 0 1 0
Limerick 1 2 0 0 0
Longford-Westmeath 1 1 0 1 1
Louth 1 1 0 2 1
Mayo 1 3 0 0 0
Meath East 1 1 0 1 0
Meath West 1 1 0 1 0
Roscommon-Galway 0 1 0 0 2
Sligo-Leitrim 1 1 0 1 1
Tipperary 1 1 0 0 3
Waterford 1 1 0 1 1
Wexford 2 1 0 0 2
Wicklow 1 1 0 1 2
STATE 41 44 2 26 45
% Seats 25.9 27.8 1.3 16.5 28.5

Based on these seat estimates, a Fine Gael-Labour (combined seat level of 46 seats) would fall well short of the number of seats required to form a government (79 seats), but a potential Sinn Fein-Fianna Fail alliance (combined seat level of 67 seats) would come somewhat closer to this 79 seat target.  To have a sufficient number of seats required to command a majority in Dail Eireann (79 seats in a 158 seat Dail, assuming a deputy from another party/grouping takes on the Ceann Comhairle role), a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein (or Fine Gael-Labour) alliance would need the support of at least twelve (thirty three) or more, TDs from the independent ranks, or from another political grouping, to be able to form a government. A Fine Gael and Sinn Fein pairing would also fail to have a sufficient number of seats (combined seat level of 70 seats) to command a majority in Dail Eireann, but such an alliance looks to be unlikely in the present political climate in any course. Based on these numbers, a potential Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition government would be the only two-party alliance able to muster enough seats to form a two-party coalition without needing the support of one or two other Dail deputiess (with a combined seat level of 85 seats). The reason why such two-party coalitions would appear to be difficult prospects could of course be attributed to yet another very strong showing (in support and seat estimates terms) for the different groupings associated with the Independent and Others grouping.

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The constituency support estimates based on the Irish Independent-Millward Brown poll (19th May 2014), when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:

Constituency FF FG LB SF GP
Carlow-Kilkenny 35% 26% 6% 23% 4%
Cavan-Monaghan 18% 20% 1% 50% 1%
Clare 26% 27% 5% 8% 3%
Cork East 23% 27% 12% 30% 2%
Cork North Central 18% 16% 8% 32% 2%
Cork North West 33% 34% 5% 19% 2%
Cork South Central 35% 22% 6% 20% 4%
Cork South West 31% 34% 5% 19% 3%
Donegal 17% 11% 2% 49% 1%
Dublin Central 16% 12% 9% 28% 3%
Dublin Mid West 15% 21% 11% 29% 5%
Dublin Fingal 19% 19% 9% 6% 13%
Dublin Bay North 14% 16% 7% 19% 2%
Dublin North West 12% 9% 8% 42% 1%
Dublin Rathdown 10% 17% 5% 6% 10%
Dublin South Central 11% 13% 12% 33% 3%
Dublin Bay South 7% 16% 8% 18% 8%
Dublin South West 13% 18% 11% 30% 4%
Dublin West 21% 18% 10% 15% 2%
Dun Laoghaire 20% 25% 11% 6% 7%
Galway East 25% 27% 4% 12% 1%
Galway West 21% 17% 4% 13% 2%
Kerry County 13% 19% 5% 24% 1%
Kildare North 19% 24% 11% 15% 3%
Kildare South 29% 24% 10% 16% 0%
Laois 33% 22% 4% 31% 0%
Offaly 26% 15% 1% 13% 0%
Limerick City 28% 29% 8% 20% 0%
Limerick 27% 38% 6% 10% 0%
Longford-Westmeath 25% 26% 9% 19% 0%
Louth 16% 17% 6% 44% 0%
Mayo 22% 45% 2% 17% 0%
Meath East 25% 28% 8% 22% 0%
Meath West 27% 26% 2% 37% 0%
Roscommon-Galway 15% 17% 3% 12% 0%
Sligo-Leitrim 23% 19% 2% 34% 0%
Tipperary 16% 16% 5% 11% 0%
Waterford 16% 23% 6% 23% 0%
Wexford 23% 22% 7% 14% 0%
Wicklow 11% 18% 4% 21% 0%

Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:

Constituency FF FG LB SF GP OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 0 1 0 0
Cavan-Monaghan 1 1 0 2 0 0
Clare 1 1 0 0 0 2
Cork East 1 1 0 2 0 0
Cork North Central 1 1 0 1 0 1
Cork North West 1 1 0 1 0 0
Cork South Central 2 1 0 1 0 0
Cork South West 1 1 0 1 0 0
Donegal 1 0 0 3 0 1
Dublin Central 0 0 0 1 0 2
Dublin Mid West 1 1 0 1 0 1
Dublin Fingal 1 1 0 0 1 2
Dublin Bay North 1 1 0 1 0 2
Dublin North West 0 0 0 2 0 1
Dublin Rathdown 0 1 0 0 0 2
Dublin South Central 0 1 0 2 0 1
Dublin Bay South 0 1 0 1 0 2
Dublin South West 1 1 0 2 0 1
Dublin West 1 1 0 0 0 2
Dun Laoghaire 1 2 0 0 0 1
Galway East 1 1 0 0 0 1
Galway West 1 1 0 0 0 3
Kerry County 0 1 0 1 0 3
Kildare North 1 1 0 1 0 1
Kildare South 1 1 0 0 0 1
Laois 1 1 0 1 0 0
Offaly 1 0 0 0 0 2
Limerick City 1 1 0 1 0 1
Limerick 1 1 0 0 0 1
Longford-Westmeath 1 1 0 1 0 1
Louth 1 1 0 2 0 1
Mayo 1 2 0 1 0 0
Meath East 1 1 0 1 0 0
Meath West 1 1 0 1 0 0
Roscommon-Galway 0 1 0 0 0 2
Sligo-Leitrim 1 1 0 1 0 1
Tipperary 1 1 0 0 0 3
Waterford 1 1 0 1 0 1
Wexford 1 1 0 1 0 2
Wicklow 0 1 0 1 0 3
STATE 34 39 0 36 1 48

These estimates also need to take account of the candidate and competition trends unique to the different constituency. Amending the model to account for seats that may be won or lost on the basis of estimates here being based on support levels derived due to a large/small number of candidates contesting the election in 2011 (as in the large number of independent candidates competing in constituencies such as Wicklow or Laois-Offaly in 2011) or one candidate polling especially well in that election (e.g. the Shane Ross vote in Dublin South/Mick Wallace vote in Wexford) in a manner that would not amount to an extra seat for another member of the same party/grouping. Vote transfer patterns and vote management issues (e.g. discrepancies between votes won by party front runners and their running mates which would see potential seat wins fall out of a party’s hands) also need to be accounted for. Taking these concerns into account, the amended seat allocations across the constituencies would look more like this:

Constituency FF FG LB SF GP OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 0 1 0 0
Cavan-Monaghan 1 1 0 2 0 0
Clare 1 2 0 0 0 1
Cork East 1 1 0 2 0 0
Cork North Central 1 1 0 1 0 1
Cork North West 1 1 0 1 0 0
Cork South Central 2 1 0 1 0 0
Cork South West 1 1 0 1 0 0
Donegal 1 0 0 3 0 1
Dublin Central 1 0 0 1 0 1
Dublin Mid West 1 1 0 1 0 1
Dublin Fingal 1 1 0 0 1 2
Dublin Bay North 1 1 0 1 0 2
Dublin North West 0 0 0 2 0 1
Dublin Rathdown 0 1 0 0 0 2
Dublin South Central 0 1 0 2 0 1
Dublin Bay South 0 1 0 1 0 2
Dublin South West 1 1 0 2 0 1
Dublin West 1 1 0 1 0 1
Dun Laoghaire 1 2 0 0 0 1
Galway East 1 1 0 0 0 1
Galway West 1 1 0 0 0 3
Kerry County 1 1 0 1 0 2
Kildare North 1 1 0 1 0 1
Kildare South 1 1 0 0 0 1
Laois 1 1 0 1 0 0
Offaly 1 0 0 0 0 2
Limerick City 1 2 0 1 0 0
Limerick 1 1 0 0 0 1
Longford-Westmeath 1 1 0 1 0 1
Louth 1 1 0 2 0 1
Mayo 1 2 0 1 0 0
Meath East 1 1 0 1 0 0
Meath West 1 1 0 1 0 0
Roscommon-Galway 0 1 0 0 0 2
Sligo-Leitrim 1 1 0 1 0 1
Tipperary 1 1 0 0 0 3
Waterford 1 1 0 1 0 1
Wexford 1 1 0 1 0 2
Wicklow 0 1 0 1 0 3
STATE 36 41 0 37 1 43
% Seats 22.8 25.9 0.0 23.4 0.6 27.2

Based on these seat estimates, a Fine Gael-Labour (combined seat level of 41 seats) would fall well short of the number of seats required to form a government (79 seats), as would also apply in the case of a potential Sinn Fein-Fianna Fail alliance (combined seat level of 73 seats) that would come somewhat closer to this 79 seat target.  To have a sufficient number of seats required to command a majority in Dail Eireann (79 seats in a 158 seat Dail, assuming a deputy from another party/grouping takes on the Ceann Comhairle role), a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein (or Fine Gael-Labour) alliance would need the support of at least six (thirty eight) or more, TDs from the independent ranks, or from another political grouping, to be able to form a government. A Fine Gael and Sinn Fein pairing would also fail (just about!!!) to have a sufficient number of seats (combined seat level of 78 seats) to command a majority in Dail Eireann, but such an alliance looks to be unlikely in the present political climate in any course. Based on these numbers, even a potential Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition government would not be able to muster enough seats to form a two-party coalition without needing the support of one or two other Dail deputiess (with a combined seat level of 77 seats), although there may be scope for further alliances with some elements of the Independents and Others grouping (e.g. Reform Alliance and/or Fianna Fail/Fine Gael gene pool independents).  The reason why such two-party coalitions would appear to be difficult prospects could of course be attributed to yet another very strong showing (in support and seat estimates terms) for the different groupings associated with the Independent and Others grouping.

**********************************************************

The constituency support estimates based on the Irish Sun-Red C poll (19th May 2014), when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:

Constituency FF FG LB SF GP OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 34% 30% 7% 19% 4% 6%
Cavan-Monaghan 19% 24% 2% 45% 1% 9%
Clare 26% 31% 7% 7% 3% 27%
Cork East 22% 30% 15% 25% 2% 5%
Cork North Central 18% 20% 11% 28% 2% 22%
Cork North West 31% 38% 7% 16% 2% 5%
Cork South Central 34% 25% 8% 17% 4% 12%
Cork South West 30% 38% 7% 16% 3% 7%
Donegal 18% 14% 3% 45% 1% 19%
Dublin Central 17% 14% 12% 25% 3% 30%
Dublin Mid West 15% 24% 14% 25% 5% 17%
Dublin Fingal 18% 22% 12% 6% 13% 30%
Dublin Bay North 14% 20% 10% 17% 2% 37%
Dublin North West 12% 11% 11% 39% 1% 25%
Dublin Rathdown 10% 21% 7% 5% 10% 46%
Dublin South Central 11% 16% 16% 29% 3% 25%
Dublin Bay South 7% 19% 11% 16% 9% 39%
Dublin South West 12% 22% 15% 26% 4% 22%
Dublin West 21% 21% 14% 13% 2% 30%
Dun Laoghaire 19% 28% 14% 5% 7% 28%
Galway East 25% 32% 5% 10% 1% 27%
Galway West 22% 21% 5% 11% 2% 39%
Kerry County 13% 24% 7% 21% 1% 35%
Kildare North 18% 27% 14% 12% 3% 25%
Kildare South 28% 27% 13% 13% 0% 18%
Laois 33% 27% 5% 27% 0% 8%
Offaly 27% 19% 2% 12% 0% 41%
Limerick City 27% 33% 10% 16% 0% 13%
Limerick 25% 43% 8% 8% 0% 16%
Longford-Westmeath 25% 30% 11% 16% 0% 18%
Louth 17% 21% 8% 39% 0% 15%
Mayo 21% 50% 2% 14% 0% 12%
Meath East 24% 32% 10% 19% 0% 15%
Meath West 27% 31% 3% 32% 0% 7%
Roscommon-Galway 15% 21% 4% 11% 0% 49%
Sligo-Leitrim 23% 23% 3% 31% 0% 19%
Tipperary 16% 20% 7% 10% 0% 47%
Waterford 16% 28% 8% 20% 0% 28%
Wexford 22% 26% 9% 12% 0% 30%
Wicklow 11% 23% 6% 18% 0% 41%

Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:

Constituency FF FG LB SF GP OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 0 1 0 0
Cavan-Monaghan 1 1 0 2 0 0
Clare 1 2 0 0 0 1
Cork East 1 1 1 1 0 0
Cork North Central 1 1 0 1 0 1
Cork North West 1 2 0 0 0 0
Cork South Central 2 1 0 1 0 0
Cork South West 1 2 0 0 0 0
Donegal 1 0 0 3 0 1
Dublin Central 1 0 0 1 0 1
Dublin Mid West 1 1 0 1 0 1
Dublin Fingal 1 1 0 0 1 2
Dublin Bay North 1 1 0 1 0 2
Dublin North West 0 0 0 2 0 1
Dublin Rathdown 0 1 0 0 0 2
Dublin South Central 0 1 1 1 0 1
Dublin Bay South 0 1 0 1 0 2
Dublin South West 0 1 1 2 0 1
Dublin West 1 1 1 0 0 1
Dun Laoghaire 1 2 0 0 0 1
Galway East 1 1 0 0 0 1
Galway West 1 1 0 0 0 3
Kerry County 1 1 0 1 0 2
Kildare North 1 1 1 0 0 1
Kildare South 1 1 0 0 0 1
Laois 1 1 0 1 0 0
Offaly 1 0 0 0 0 2
Limerick City 1 2 0 1 0 0
Limerick 1 2 0 0 0 0
Longford-Westmeath 1 1 0 1 0 1
Louth 1 1 0 2 0 1
Mayo 1 3 0 0 0 0
Meath East 1 1 0 1 0 0
Meath West 1 1 0 1 0 0
Roscommon-Galway 0 1 0 0 0 2
Sligo-Leitrim 1 1 0 1 0 1
Tipperary 1 1 0 0 0 3
Waterford 1 1 0 1 0 1
Wexford 1 2 0 0 0 2
Wicklow 0 1 0 1 0 3
STATE 35 46 5 29 1 42

These estimates also need to take account of the candidate and competition trends unique to the different constituency. Amending the model to account for seats that may be won or lost on the basis of estimates here being based on support levels derived due to a large/small number of candidates contesting the election in 2011 (as in the large number of independent candidates competing in constituencies such as Wicklow or Laois-Offaly in 2011) or one candidate polling especially well in that election (e.g. the Shane Ross vote in Dublin South/Mick Wallace vote in Wexford) in a manner that would not amount to an extra seat for another member of the same party/grouping. Vote transfer patterns and vote management issues (e.g. discrepancies between votes won by party front runners and their running mates which would see potential seat wins fall out of a party’s hands) also need to be accounted for. Taking these concerns into account, the amended seat allocations across the constituencies would look more like this:

Constituency FF FG LB SF GP OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 0 1 0 0
Cavan-Monaghan 1 1 0 2 0 0
Clare 1 2 0 0 0 1
Cork East 1 1 1 1 0 0
Cork North Central 1 1 0 1 0 1
Cork North West 1 2 0 0 0 0
Cork South Central 2 1 0 1 0 0
Cork South West 1 2 0 0 0 0
Donegal 1 1 0 2 0 1
Dublin Central 1 0 0 1 0 1
Dublin Mid West 1 1 1 1 0 0
Dublin Fingal 1 1 1 0 1 1
Dublin Bay North 1 1 0 1 0 2
Dublin North West 0 0 0 2 0 1
Dublin Rathdown 0 1 0 0 0 2
Dublin South Central 0 1 1 1 0 1
Dublin Bay South 0 1 0 1 0 2
Dublin South West 1 1 1 1 0 1
Dublin West 1 1 1 0 0 1
Dun Laoghaire 1 2 0 0 0 1
Galway East 1 1 0 0 0 1
Galway West 1 1 0 1 0 2
Kerry County 1 1 0 1 0 2
Kildare North 1 1 1 0 0 1
Kildare South 1 1 0 0 0 1
Laois 1 1 0 1 0 0
Offaly 1 0 0 0 0 2
Limerick City 1 2 0 1 0 0
Limerick 1 2 0 0 0 0
Longford-Westmeath 1 1 0 1 0 1
Louth 1 1 0 2 0 1
Mayo 1 3 0 0 0 0
Meath East 1 1 0 1 0 0
Meath West 1 1 0 1 0 0
Roscommon-Galway 0 1 0 0 0 2
Sligo-Leitrim 1 1 0 1 0 1
Tipperary 1 1 0 0 0 3
Waterford 1 1 0 1 0 1
Wexford 1 2 0 0 0 2
Wicklow 1 1 0 1 0 2
STATE 37 47 7 28 1 38
% Seats 23.4 29.7 4.4 17.7 0.6 24.1

Based on these seat estimates, a Fine Gael-Labour (combined seat level of 49 seats) would fall far short of the number of seats required to form a government (79 seats), as would also apply in the case of a potential Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein alliance (combined seat level of 65 seats) that would come somewhat closer to this 79 seat target.  To have a sufficient number of seats required to command a majority in Dail Eireann (79 seats in a 158 seat Dail, assuming a deputy from another party/grouping takes on the Ceann Comhairle role), a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein (or Fine Gael-Labour) alliance would need the support of at least fourteen (thirty) or more, TDs from the independent ranks, or from another political grouping, to be able to form a government. A Fine Gael and Sinn Fein pairing would also fail to have a sufficient number of seats (combined seat level of 75 seats) to command a majority in Dail Eireann, but such an alliance looks to be unlikely in the present political climate in any course. Ultimately, based on these numbers a Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition government would be the only viable two-party coalition and such an alliance would command a very strong Dail majority (with a combined seat level of 84 seats).  The reason why such two-party coalitions would appear to be difficult prospects could of course be attributed to yet another very strong showing (in support and seat estimates terms) for the different groupings associated with the Independent and Others grouping.

**********************************************************

The constituency support estimates based on the Sunday Business Post-Red C tracking poll figures (4th May 2014), when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:

Constituency FF FG LB SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 35% 29% 10% 17% 9%
Cavan-Monaghan 20% 25% 3% 42% 10%
Clare 27% 31% 9% 6% 28%
Cork East 22% 29% 20% 21% 7%
Cork North Central 18% 19% 15% 25% 22%
Cork North West 32% 37% 9% 14% 7%
Cork South Central 35% 25% 11% 15% 14%
Cork South West 31% 38% 9% 14% 9%
Donegal 20% 15% 4% 42% 19%
Dublin Central 17% 14% 16% 22% 31%
Dublin Mid West 15% 23% 19% 22% 21%
Dublin Fingal 19% 21% 16% 5% 39%
Dublin Bay North 14% 19% 13% 15% 38%
Dublin North West 13% 11% 16% 35% 26%
Dublin Rathdown 11% 21% 10% 5% 54%
Dublin South Central 11% 16% 22% 26% 26%
Dublin Bay South 7% 19% 14% 14% 45%
Dublin South West 13% 21% 20% 23% 24%
Dublin West 21% 20% 18% 11% 30%
Dun Laoghaire 19% 27% 18% 4% 32%
Galway East 26% 32% 6% 9% 27%
Galway West 23% 21% 7% 10% 40%
Kerry County 14% 24% 9% 19% 34%
Kildare North 19% 26% 19% 11% 26%
Kildare South 28% 26% 18% 12% 17%
Laois 35% 26% 7% 24% 8%
Offaly 29% 19% 3% 10% 39%
Limerick City 28% 33% 13% 14% 12%
Limerick 26% 42% 10% 7% 15%
Longford-Westmeath 25% 29% 15% 14% 17%
Louth 18% 21% 11% 36% 15%
Mayo 22% 50% 3% 13% 12%
Meath East 25% 31% 13% 17% 14%
Meath West 29% 32% 4% 29% 6%
Roscommon-Galway 16% 21% 6% 10% 48%
Sligo-Leitrim 25% 24% 4% 28% 19%
Tipperary 17% 20% 9% 9% 45%
Waterford 17% 28% 11% 17% 27%
Wexford 23% 26% 13% 10% 29%
Wicklow 12% 23% 8% 17% 40%

Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:

Constituency FF FG LB SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 0 1 0
Cavan-Monaghan 1 1 0 2 0
Clare 1 2 0 0 1
Cork East 1 1 1 1 0
Cork North Central 1 1 0 1 1
Cork North West 1 2 0 0 0
Cork South Central 2 1 0 1 0
Cork South West 1 2 0 0 0
Donegal 1 1 0 2 1
Dublin Central 1 0 0 1 1
Dublin Mid West 0 1 1 1 1
Dublin Fingal 1 1 1 0 2
Dublin Bay North 1 1 0 1 2
Dublin North West 0 0 0 2 1
Dublin Rathdown 0 1 0 0 2
Dublin South Central 0 1 1 1 1
Dublin Bay South 0 1 1 0 2
Dublin South West 1 1 1 1 1
Dublin West 1 1 1 0 1
Dun Laoghaire 1 2 0 0 1
Galway East 1 1 0 0 1
Galway West 1 1 0 0 3
Kerry County 1 1 0 1 2
Kildare North 1 1 1 0 1
Kildare South 1 1 1 0 0
Laois 1 1 0 1 0
Offaly 1 0 0 0 2
Limerick City 1 2 0 1 0
Limerick 1 2 0 0 0
Longford-Westmeath 1 2 1 0 0
Louth 1 1 0 2 1
Mayo 1 3 0 0 0
Meath East 1 1 0 1 0
Meath West 1 1 0 1 0
Roscommon-Galway 0 1 0 0 2
Sligo-Leitrim 1 1 0 1 1
Tipperary 1 1 0 0 3
Waterford 1 1 0 1 1
Wexford 1 2 0 0 2
Wicklow 0 1 0 1 3
STATE 35 48 10 25 40

These estimates also need to take account of the candidate and competition trends unique to the different constituency. Amending the model to account for seats that may be won or lost on the basis of estimates here being based on support levels derived due to a large/small number of candidates contesting the election in 2011 (as in the large number of independent candidates competing in constituencies such as Wicklow or Laois-Offaly in 2011) or one candidate polling especially well in that election (e.g. the Shane Ross vote in Dublin South/Mick Wallace vote in Wexford) in a manner that would not amount to an extra seat for another member of the same party/grouping. Vote transfer patterns and vote management issues (e.g. discrepancies between votes won by party front runners and their running mates which would see potential seat wins fall out of a party’s hands) also need to be accounted for. Taking these concerns into account, the amended seat allocations across the constituencies would look more like this:

Constituency FF FG LB SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 0 1 0
Cavan-Monaghan 1 1 0 2 0
Clare 1 2 0 0 1
Cork East 1 2 1 1 0
Cork North Central 1 1 1 1 0
Cork North West 1 2 0 0 0
Cork South Central 2 1 0 1 0
Cork South West 1 2 0 0 0
Donegal 1 1 0 2 1
Dublin Central 0 0 1 1 1
Dublin Mid West 1 1 1 1 0
Dublin Fingal 1 1 1 0 2
Dublin Bay North 1 1 0 1 2
Dublin North West 0 0 1 1 1
Dublin Rathdown 0 1 0 0 2
Dublin South Central 0 1 1 1 1
Dublin Bay South 0 1 1 0 2
Dublin South West 1 1 1 1 1
Dublin West 1 1 1 0 1
Dun Laoghaire 1 2 0 0 1
Galway East 1 1 0 0 1
Galway West 1 1 0 0 3
Kerry County 1 1 0 1 2
Kildare North 1 1 1 0 1
Kildare South 1 1 1 0 0
Laois 1 1 0 1 0
Offaly 1 1 0 0 1
Limerick City 1 2 0 1 0
Limerick 1 2 0 0 0
Longford-Westmeath 1 2 1 0 0
Louth 1 1 0 2 1
Mayo 1 3 0 0 0
Meath East 1 1 0 1 0
Meath West 1 1 0 1 0
Roscommon-Galway 0 1 0 0 2
Sligo-Leitrim 1 1 0 1 1
Tipperary 1 1 0 0 3
Waterford 1 1 0 1 1
Wexford 1 2 1 0 1
Wicklow 1 1 0 1 2
STATE 36 50 14 24 35
% Seats 22.8 31.6 8.9 15.2 22.2

Based on these seat estimates, a Fine Gael-Labour (combined seat level of 64 seats) would fall far short of the number of seats required to form a government (79 seats), as would also apply in the case of a potential Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein alliance (combined seat level of 60 seats) would come somewhat closer to this 79 seat target.  To have a sufficient number of seats required to command a majority in Dail Eireann (79 seats in a 158 seat Dail, assuming a deputy from another party/grouping takes on the Ceann Comhairle role), a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein (or Fine Gael-Labour) alliance would need the support of at least nineteen (fifteen) or more, TDs from the independent ranks, or from another political grouping, to be able to form a government. A Fine Gael and Sinn Fein pairing would also fail to have a sufficient number of seats (combined seat level of 74 seats) to command a majority in Dail Eireann, but such an alliance looks to be unlikely in the present political climate in any course. Ultimately, based on these numbers a Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition government would be the only viable two-party coalition and such an alliance would command a very strong Dail majority (with a combined seat level of 86 seats).  The reason why such two-party coalitions would appear to be difficult prospects could of course be attributed to yet another very strong showing (in support and seat estimates terms) for the different groupings associated with the Independent and Others grouping.

**********************************************************

The constituency support estimates based on the Sunday Times- Behaviour & Attitudes poll figures (18th May 2014), when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:

Constituency FF FG LB SF GP OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 36% 29% 6% 16% 6% 7%
Cavan-Monaghan 22% 25% 2% 40% 1% 11%
Clare 27% 30% 5% 6% 4% 28%
Cork East 25% 31% 14% 21% 3% 6%
Cork North Central 20% 20% 10% 24% 3% 24%
Cork North West 34% 38% 6% 13% 3% 6%
Cork South Central 36% 25% 7% 14% 5% 13%
Cork South West 32% 38% 6% 13% 4% 8%
Donegal 21% 15% 2% 39% 2% 21%
Dublin Central 18% 14% 10% 21% 4% 33%
Dublin Mid West 16% 24% 12% 21% 8% 19%
Dublin Fingal 18% 20% 9% 4% 17% 30%
Dublin Bay North 15% 19% 8% 14% 3% 40%
Dublin North West 14% 11% 10% 33% 2% 29%
Dublin Rathdown 10% 19% 6% 4% 14% 47%
Dublin South Central 12% 16% 14% 25% 4% 28%
Dublin Bay South 7% 18% 9% 13% 12% 42%
Dublin South West 14% 21% 13% 22% 6% 24%
Dublin West 22% 21% 12% 11% 3% 32%
Dun Laoghaire 20% 27% 11% 4% 9% 30%
Galway East 26% 31% 4% 8% 1% 29%
Galway West 22% 20% 4% 9% 3% 42%
Kerry County 14% 23% 6% 18% 2% 38%
Kildare North 20% 27% 12% 10% 4% 27%
Kildare South 30% 27% 12% 11% 0% 20%
Laois 37% 27% 5% 23% 0% 9%
Offaly 28% 18% 2% 9% 0% 43%
Limerick City 30% 33% 9% 14% 0% 14%
Limerick 27% 42% 7% 7% 0% 17%
Longford-Westmeath 27% 30% 10% 14% 0% 20%
Louth 19% 22% 7% 34% 0% 18%
Mayo 23% 50% 2% 12% 0% 13%
Meath East 27% 32% 9% 16% 0% 16%
Meath West 30% 32% 2% 28% 0% 8%
Roscommon-Galway 16% 20% 3% 9% 0% 53%
Sligo-Leitrim 26% 23% 3% 26% 0% 22%
Tipperary 17% 19% 5% 8% 0% 50%
Waterford 18% 28% 7% 16% 0% 31%
Wexford 24% 25% 8% 10% 0% 33%
Wicklow 12% 22% 5% 15% 0% 45%

Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:

Constituency FF FG LB SF GP OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 0 1 0 0
Cavan-Monaghan 1 1 0 2 0 0
Clare 1 2 0 0 0 1
Cork East 1 2 0 1 0 0
Cork North Central 1 1 0 1 0 1
Cork North West 1 2 0 0 0 0
Cork South Central 2 1 0 1 0 0
Cork South West 1 2 0 0 0 0
Donegal 1 1 0 2 0 1
Dublin Central 1 0 0 1 0 1
Dublin Mid West 1 1 0 1 0 1
Dublin Fingal 1 1 0 0 1 2
Dublin Bay North 1 1 0 1 0 2
Dublin North West 0 0 0 2 0 1
Dublin Rathdown 0 1 0 0 0 2
Dublin South Central 0 1 1 1 0 1
Dublin Bay South 0 1 0 1 0 2
Dublin South West 1 1 1 1 0 1
Dublin West 1 1 0 0 0 2
Dun Laoghaire 1 2 0 0 0 1
Galway East 1 1 0 0 0 1
Galway West 1 1 0 0 0 3
Kerry County 1 1 0 1 0 2
Kildare North 1 1 0 0 0 2
Kildare South 1 1 0 0 0 1
Laois 1 1 0 1 0 0
Offaly 1 0 0 0 0 2
Limerick City 2 2 0 0 0 0
Limerick 1 2 0 0 0 0
Longford-Westmeath 1 2 0 0 0 1
Louth 1 1 0 2 0 1
Mayo 1 3 0 0 0 0
Meath East 1 1 0 1 0 0
Meath West 1 1 0 1 0 0
Roscommon-Galway 0 1 0 0 0 2
Sligo-Leitrim 1 1 0 1 0 1
Tipperary 1 1 0 0 0 3
Waterford 1 1 0 1 0 1
Wexford 1 2 0 0 0 2
Wicklow 0 1 0 1 0 3
STATE 37 49 2 25 1 44

These estimates also need to take account of the candidate and competition trends unique to the different constituency. Amending the model to account for seats that may be won or lost on the basis of estimates here being based on support levels derived due to a large/small number of candidates contesting the election in 2011 (as in the large number of independent candidates competing in constituencies such as Wicklow or Laois-Offaly in 2011) or one candidate polling especially well in that election (e.g. the Shane Ross vote in Dublin South/Mick Wallace vote in Wexford) in a manner that would not amount to an extra seat for another member of the same party/grouping. Vote transfer patterns and vote management issues (e.g. discrepancies between votes won by party front runners and their running mates which would see potential seat wins fall out of a party’s hands) also need to be accounted for. Taking these concerns into account, the amended seat allocations across the constituencies would look more like this:

Constituency FF FG LB SF GP OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 0 1 0 0
Cavan-Monaghan 1 1 0 2 0 0
Clare 1 2 0 0 0 1
Cork East 1 2 0 1 0 0
Cork North Central 1 1 0 1 0 1
Cork North West 1 2 0 0 0 0
Cork South Central 2 1 0 1 0 0
Cork South West 1 2 0 0 0 0
Donegal 1 1 0 2 0 1
Dublin Central 1 0 0 1 0 1
Dublin Mid West 1 1 1 1 0 0
Dublin Fingal 1 1 0 0 1 2
Dublin Bay North 1 1 0 1 0 2
Dublin North West 0 0 0 2 0 1
Dublin Rathdown 0 1 0 0 0 2
Dublin South Central 0 1 1 1 0 1
Dublin Bay South 0 1 0 1 0 2
Dublin South West 1 1 1 1 0 1
Dublin West 1 1 0 0 0 2
Dun Laoghaire 1 2 0 0 0 1
Galway East 1 1 0 0 0 1
Galway West 1 1 0 0 0 3
Kerry County 1 1 0 1 0 2
Kildare North 1 2 0 0 0 1
Kildare South 1 1 0 0 0 1
Laois 1 1 0 1 0 0
Offaly 1 1 0 0 0 1
Limerick City 2 2 0 0 0 0
Limerick 1 2 0 0 0 0
Longford-Westmeath 1 2 0 0 0 1
Louth 1 1 0 2 0 1
Mayo 1 3 0 0 0 0
Meath East 1 1 0 1 0 0
Meath West 1 1 0 1 0 0
Roscommon-Galway 0 1 0 0 0 2
Sligo-Leitrim 1 1 0 1 0 1
Tipperary 1 1 0 0 0 3
Waterford 1 1 0 1 0 1
Wexford 1 2 0 0 0 2
Wicklow 0 1 0 1 0 3
STATE 37 51 3 25 1 41
% Seats 23.4 32.3 1.9 15.8 0.6 25.9

Based on these seat estimates, a Fine Gael-Labour (combined seat level of 54 seats) would fall far short of the number of seats required to form a government (79 seats); while a potential Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein alliance (combined seat level of 62 seats) would come somewhat closer to this 79 seat target.  To have a sufficient number of seats required to command a majority in Dail Eireann (79 seats in a 158 seat Dail, assuming a deputy from another party/grouping takes on the Ceann Comhairle role), a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein (or Fine Gael-Labour) alliance would need the support of at least seventeen (twenty five) or more, TDs from the independent ranks or from another political grouping to be able to form a government. A Fine Gael and Sinn Fein pairing would also not have a sufficient number of seats (combined seat level of 76 seats) to command a majority in Dail Eireann, but such an alliance looks to be unlikely in the present political climate in any course. Ultimately, based on these numbers a Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition government would be the only viable two-party coalition and such an alliance would command a very strong Dail majority (with a combined seat level of 88 seats).  The reason why such two-party coalitions would appear to be difficult prospects could of course be attributed to yet another very strong showing (in support and seat estimates terms) for the different groupings associated with the Independent and Others grouping.

**********************************************************

The constituency support estimates based on the Irish Independent-Millward Brown poll figures (28th April 2014), when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:

Constituency FF FG LB SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 37% 29% 5% 20% 9%
Cavan-Monaghan 21% 23% 1% 45% 9%
Clare 29% 31% 5% 7% 28%
Cork East 26% 30% 11% 26% 7%
Cork North Central 20% 19% 8% 30% 22%
Cork North West 35% 37% 5% 16% 7%
Cork South Central 38% 25% 6% 17% 14%
Cork South West 33% 37% 5% 16% 9%
Donegal 20% 14% 2% 45% 18%
Dublin Central 19% 14% 9% 26% 31%
Dublin Mid West 17% 24% 11% 26% 21%
Dublin Fingal 22% 22% 9% 6% 41%
Dublin Bay North 16% 20% 8% 18% 38%
Dublin North West 14% 11% 9% 40% 26%
Dublin Rathdown 12% 21% 5% 6% 56%
Dublin South Central 13% 16% 12% 31% 27%
Dublin Bay South 8% 20% 8% 17% 47%
Dublin South West 15% 22% 11% 28% 25%
Dublin West 24% 21% 10% 14% 31%
Dun Laoghaire 22% 29% 11% 5% 34%
Galway East 28% 31% 3% 10% 27%
Galway West 25% 21% 4% 12% 40%
Kerry County 15% 24% 5% 22% 34%
Kildare North 21% 28% 11% 13% 27%
Kildare South 32% 27% 10% 14% 17%
Laois 36% 25% 4% 27% 7%
Offaly 31% 18% 1% 12% 38%
Limerick City 31% 33% 7% 17% 12%
Limerick 29% 42% 6% 9% 15%
Longford-Westmeath 28% 30% 8% 17% 17%
Louth 19% 21% 6% 40% 15%
Mayo 23% 49% 2% 15% 11%
Meath East 28% 32% 7% 19% 14%
Meath West 30% 30% 2% 32% 6%
Roscommon-Galway 17% 21% 3% 11% 48%
Sligo-Leitrim 26% 22% 2% 31% 18%
Tipperary 19% 20% 5% 11% 45%
Waterford 19% 28% 6% 20% 27%
Wexford 26% 26% 7% 12% 29%
Wicklow 13% 23% 5% 19% 40%

Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:

Constituency FF FG LB SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 0 1 0
Cavan-Monaghan 1 1 0 2 0
Clare 1 2 0 0 1
Cork East 1 2 0 1 0
Cork North Central 1 1 0 1 1
Cork North West 1 2 0 0 0
Cork South Central 2 1 0 1 0
Cork South West 1 2 0 0 0
Donegal 1 0 0 3 1
Dublin Central 1 0 0 1 1
Dublin Mid West 1 1 0 1 1
Dublin Fingal 1 1 0 0 3
Dublin Bay North 1 1 0 1 2
Dublin North West 0 0 0 2 1
Dublin Rathdown 0 1 0 0 2
Dublin South Central 0 1 0 2 1
Dublin Bay South 0 1 0 1 2
Dublin South West 1 1 0 2 1
Dublin West 1 1 0 0 2
Dun Laoghaire 1 2 0 0 1
Galway East 1 1 0 0 1
Galway West 1 1 0 0 3
Kerry County 1 1 0 1 2
Kildare North 1 2 0 0 1
Kildare South 1 1 0 0 1
Laois 1 1 0 1 0
Offaly 1 0 0 0 2
Limerick City 1 2 0 1 0
Limerick 1 2 0 0 0
Longford-Westmeath 1 1 0 1 1
Louth 1 1 0 2 1
Mayo 1 3 0 0 0
Meath East 1 1 0 1 0
Meath West 1 1 0 1 0
Roscommon-Galway 0 1 0 0 2
Sligo-Leitrim 1 1 0 1 1
Tipperary 1 1 0 0 3
Waterford 1 1 0 1 1
Wexford 1 2 0 0 2
Wicklow 0 1 0 1 3
STATE 36 48 0 30 44

These estimates also need to take account of the candidate and competition trends unique to the different constituency. Amending the model to account for seats that may be won or lost on the basis of estimates here being based on support levels derived due to a large/small number of candidates contesting the election in 2011 (as in the large number of independent candidates competing in constituencies such as Wicklow or Laois-Offaly in 2011) or one candidate polling especially well in that election (e.g. the Shane Ross vote in Dublin South/Mick Wallace vote in Wexford) in a manner that would not amount to an extra seat for another member of the same party/grouping. Vote transfer patterns and vote management issues (e.g. discrepancies between votes won by party front runners and their running mates which would see potential seat wins fall out of a party’s hands) also need to be accounted for. Taking these concerns into account, the amended seat allocations across the constituencies would look more like this:

Constituency FF FG LB SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 0 1 0
Cavan-Monaghan 1 1 0 2 0
Clare 1 2 0 0 1
Cork East 1 2 0 1 0
Cork North Central 1 1 0 1 1
Cork North West 1 2 0 0 0
Cork South Central 2 1 0 1 0
Cork South West 1 2 0 0 0
Donegal 1 0 0 3 1
Dublin Central 1 0 0 1 1
Dublin Mid West 1 1 0 1 1
Dublin Fingal 1 2 0 0 2
Dublin Bay North 1 1 0 1 2
Dublin North West 0 0 0 2 1
Dublin Rathdown 0 1 0 0 2
Dublin South Central 0 1 0 2 1
Dublin Bay South 0 1 0 1 2
Dublin South West 1 1 0 2 1
Dublin West 1 1 0 0 2
Dun Laoghaire 1 2 0 0 1
Galway East 1 1 0 0 1
Galway West 1 1 0 1 2
Kerry County 1 1 0 1 2
Kildare North 1 2 0 0 1
Kildare South 1 1 0 0 1
Laois 1 1 0 1 0
Offaly 1 1 0 0 1
Limerick City 1 2 0 1 0
Limerick 1 2 0 0 0
Longford-Westmeath 1 1 0 1 1
Louth 1 1 0 2 1
Mayo 1 2 0 1 0
Meath East 1 1 0 1 0
Meath West 1 1 0 1 0
Roscommon-Galway 0 1 0 0 2
Sligo-Leitrim 1 1 0 1 1
Tipperary 1 1 0 0 3
Waterford 1 1 0 1 1
Wexford 1 2 0 1 1
Wicklow 1 1 0 1 2
STATE 37 49 0 33 39
% Seats 23.4 31.0 0.0 20.9 24.7

Based on these seat estimates, a Fine Gael-Labour (combined seat level of 49 seats) would fall far short of the number of seats required to form a government (79 seats); while a potential Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein alliance (combined seat level of 70 seats) would come somewhat closer to this 79 seat target.  To have a sufficient number of seats required to command a majority in Dail Eireann (79 seats in a 158 seat Dail, assuming a deputy from another party/grouping takes on the Ceann Comhairle role), a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein (or Fine Gael-Labour) alliance would need the support of at least nine (thirty) or more, TDs from the independent ranks or from another political grouping to be able to form a government. A Fine Gael and Sinn Fein pairing would also have a sufficient number of seats (combined seat level of 82 seats) to command a majority in Dail Eireann, but such an alliance looks to be unlikely in the present political climate in any course. Ultimately, based on these numbers a Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition government would be the only viable two-party coalition and such an alliance would command a very strong Dail majority (with a combined seat level of 86 seats).  The reason why such two-party coalitions would appear to be difficult prospects could of course be attributed to yet another very strong showing (in support and seat estimates terms) for the different groupings associated with the Independent and Others grouping.

 

**********************************************************

The constituency support estimates based on the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll figures (20th April 2014), when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:

Constituency FF FG LB SF GP OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 35% 32% 5% 18% 4% 5%
Cavan-Monaghan 20% 27% 1% 43% 1% 8%
Clare 28% 35% 5% 7% 3% 23%
Cork East 24% 34% 11% 24% 2% 5%
Cork North Central 20% 23% 8% 28% 2% 19%
Cork North West 32% 42% 5% 15% 2% 4%
Cork South Central 36% 28% 6% 16% 4% 10%
Cork South West 31% 42% 5% 15% 2% 6%
Donegal 20% 17% 2% 44% 1% 16%
Dublin Central 19% 17% 9% 26% 3% 27%
Dublin Mid West 16% 28% 11% 25% 5% 15%
Dublin Fingal 21% 26% 9% 6% 13% 26%
Dublin Bay North 16% 23% 8% 18% 2% 33%
Dublin North West 14% 13% 9% 40% 1% 23%
Dublin Rathdown 12% 25% 6% 5% 11% 42%
Dublin South Central 13% 19% 13% 30% 3% 23%
Dublin Bay South 8% 23% 8% 16% 9% 36%
Dublin South West 14% 25% 11% 26% 4% 19%
Dublin West 23% 25% 10% 13% 2% 26%
Dun Laoghaire 21% 33% 10% 5% 7% 25%
Galway East 27% 36% 3% 10% 1% 23%
Galway West 24% 24% 4% 11% 2% 34%
Kerry County 14% 28% 5% 21% 1% 31%
Kildare North 20% 32% 11% 12% 3% 22%
Kildare South 30% 31% 10% 13% 0% 16%
Laois 35% 29% 4% 26% 0% 7%
Offaly 30% 21% 1% 11% 0% 36%
Limerick City 29% 37% 7% 16% 0% 11%
Limerick 27% 47% 5% 8% 0% 13%
Longford-Westmeath 26% 34% 8% 16% 0% 15%
Louth 18% 24% 6% 39% 0% 13%
Mayo 21% 54% 2% 13% 0% 10%
Meath East 26% 36% 7% 18% 0% 12%
Meath West 28% 34% 2% 30% 0% 5%
Roscommon-Galway 17% 25% 3% 11% 0% 44%
Sligo-Leitrim 25% 26% 2% 30% 0% 16%
Tipperary 19% 24% 5% 10% 0% 42%
Waterford 18% 32% 6% 19% 0% 24%
Wexford 25% 30% 7% 12% 0% 26%
Wicklow 13% 27% 5% 19% 0% 37%

Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:

Constituency FF FG LB SF GP OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 0 1 0 0
Cavan-Monaghan 1 1 0 2 0 0
Clare 1 2 0 0 0 1
Cork East 1 2 0 1 0 0
Cork North Central 1 1 0 1 0 1
Cork North West 1 2 0 0 0 0
Cork South Central 2 1 0 1 0 0
Cork South West 1 2 0 0 0 0
Donegal 1 1 0 2 0 1
Dublin Central 1 0 0 1 0 1
Dublin Mid West 1 1 0 1 0 1
Dublin Fingal 1 1 0 0 1 2
Dublin Bay North 1 1 0 1 0 2
Dublin North West 0 0 0 2 0 1
Dublin Rathdown 0 1 0 0 0 2
Dublin South Central 0 1 0 2 0 1
Dublin Bay South 0 1 0 1 0 2
Dublin South West 1 1 0 2 0 1
Dublin West 1 1 0 0 0 2
Dun Laoghaire 1 2 0 0 0 1
Galway East 1 1 0 0 0 1
Galway West 1 2 0 0 0 2
Kerry County 1 1 0 1 0 2
Kildare North 1 2 0 0 0 1
Kildare South 1 1 0 0 0 1
Laois 1 1 0 1 0 0
Offaly 1 1 0 0 0 1
Limerick City 1 2 0 1 0 0
Limerick 1 2 0 0 0 0
Longford-Westmeath 1 2 0 1 0 0
Louth 1 1 0 2 0 1
Mayo 1 3 0 0 0 0
Meath East 1 1 0 1 0 0
Meath West 1 1 0 1 0 0
Roscommon-Galway 0 1 0 0 0 2
Sligo-Leitrim 1 1 0 1 0 1
Tipperary 1 1 0 0 0 3
Waterford 1 1 0 1 0 1
Wexford 1 2 0 0 0 2
Wicklow 0 2 0 1 0 2
STATE 36 53 0 29 1 39

These estimates also need to take account of the candidate and competition trends unique to the different constituency. Amending the model to account for seats that may be won or lost on the basis of estimates here being based on support levels derived due to a large/small number of candidates contesting the election in 2011 (as in the large number of independent candidates competing in constituencies such as Wicklow or Laois-Offaly in 2011) or one candidate polling especially well in that election (e.g. the Shane Ross vote in Dublin South/Mick Wallace vote in Wexford) in a manner that would not amount to an extra seat for another member of the same party/grouping. Vote transfer patterns and vote management issues (e.g. discrepancies between votes won by party front runners and their running mates which would see potential seat wins fall out of a party’s hands) also need to be accounted for. Taking these concerns into account, the amended seat allocations across the constituencies would look more like this:

Constituency FF FG LB SF GP OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 0 1 0 0
Cavan-Monaghan 1 1 0 2 0 0
Clare 1 2 0 0 0 1
Cork East 1 2 0 1 0 0
Cork North Central 1 1 0 1 0 1
Cork North West 1 2 0 0 0 0
Cork South Central 2 1 0 1 0 0
Cork South West 1 2 0 0 0 0
Donegal 1 1 0 2 0 1
Dublin Central 1 0 0 1 0 1
Dublin Mid West 1 2 0 1 0 0
Dublin Fingal 1 2 0 0 1 1
Dublin Bay North 1 1 0 1 0 2
Dublin North West 0 0 0 2 0 1
Dublin Rathdown 0 1 0 0 0 2
Dublin South Central 0 1 0 2 0 1
Dublin Bay South 0 1 0 1 0 2
Dublin South West 1 1 0 2 0 1
Dublin West 1 1 0 1 0 1
Dun Laoghaire 1 2 0 0 0 1
Galway East 1 1 0 0 0 1
Galway West 1 2 0 0 0 2
Kerry County 1 1 0 1 0 2
Kildare North 1 2 0 0 0 1
Kildare South 1 2 0 0 0 0
Laois 1 1 0 1 0 0
Offaly 1 1 0 0 0 1
Limerick City 1 2 0 1 0 0
Limerick 1 2 0 0 0 0
Longford-Westmeath 1 2 0 1 0 0
Louth 1 1 0 2 0 1
Mayo 1 3 0 0 0 0
Meath East 1 1 0 1 0 0
Meath West 1 1 0 1 0 0
Roscommon-Galway 0 1 0 0 0 2
Sligo-Leitrim 1 1 0 2 0 0
Tipperary 1 1 0 0 0 3
Waterford 1 1 0 1 0 1
Wexford 2 2 0 0 0 1
Wicklow 0 2 0 1 0 2
STATE 37 56 0 31 1 33
% Seats 23.4 35.4 0.0 19.6 0.6 20.9

Based on these seat estimates, a Fine Gael-Labour (combined seat level of 56 seats) would fall far short of the number of seats required to form a government (79 seats); while a potential Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein alliance (combined seat level of 68 seats) would be somewhat closer to this 79 seat target.  To have a sufficient number of seats required to command a majority in Dail Eireann (79 seats in a 158 seat Dail, assuming a deputy from another party/grouping takes on the Ceann Comhairle role), a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein (or Fine Gael-Labour) alliance would need the support of at least eleven (twenty three) or more, TDs from the independent ranks or from another political grouping to be able to form a government. A Fine Gael and Sinn Fein pairing would have a sufficient number of seats (combined seat level of 87 seats) to command a majority in Dail Eireann, but such an alliance looks to be unlikely in the present political climate in any course. Ultimately, based on these numbers a Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition government would be the only viable two-party coalition and such an alliance would command a very strong Dail majority (with a combined seat level of 93 seats).  The reason why such two-party coalitions would appear to be difficult prospects could of course be attributed to yet another very strong showing (in support and seat estimates terms) for the different groupings associated with the Independent and Others grouping.

**********************************************************

The constituency support estimates based on the Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll figures (20th April 2014), when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:

Constituency FF FG LB SF GP
Carlow-Kilkenny 33% 25% 8% 19% 8%
Cavan-Monaghan 19% 21% 2% 46% 2%
Clare 26% 26% 7% 7% 6%
Cork East 22% 26% 17% 25% 4%
Cork North Central 17% 16% 12% 28% 4%
Cork North West 32% 33% 8% 16% 5%
Cork South Central 33% 21% 9% 16% 7%
Cork South West 30% 33% 8% 16% 5%
Donegal 18% 12% 3% 45% 2%
Dublin Central 16% 11% 13% 24% 5%
Dublin Mid West 14% 19% 15% 24% 10%
Dublin Fingal 16% 16% 12% 5% 22%
Dublin Bay North 13% 16% 11% 17% 4%
Dublin North West 12% 9% 12% 37% 3%
Dublin Rathdown 9% 16% 7% 5% 19%
Dublin South Central 11% 13% 17% 28% 5%
Dublin Bay South 6% 15% 11% 14% 15%
Dublin South West 12% 17% 16% 25% 8%
Dublin West 20% 17% 15% 12% 4%
Dun Laoghaire 18% 22% 15% 4% 12%
Galway East 25% 27% 5% 10% 2%
Galway West 21% 17% 5% 11% 5%
Kerry County 13% 20% 7% 21% 2%
Kildare North 18% 22% 16% 12% 6%
Kildare South 28% 23% 15% 14% 0%
Laois 34% 23% 6% 28% 0%
Offaly 27% 15% 2% 11% 0%
Limerick City 28% 29% 11% 17% 0%
Limerick 27% 38% 9% 9% 0%
Longford-Westmeath 25% 26% 13% 16% 0%
Louth 17% 18% 9% 40% 0%
Mayo 23% 45% 3% 15% 0%
Meath East 25% 28% 11% 19% 0%
Meath West 28% 28% 3% 33% 0%
Roscommon-Galway 15% 17% 5% 10% 0%
Sligo-Leitrim 24% 20% 4% 31% 0%
Tipperary 16% 16% 7% 10% 0%
Waterford 17% 24% 10% 20% 0%
Wexford 22% 22% 11% 12% 0%
Wicklow 11% 19% 7% 18% 0%

Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:

Constituency FF FG LB SF GP OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 0 1 0 0
Cavan-Monaghan 1 1 0 2 0 0
Clare 1 1 0 0 0 2
Cork East 1 1 1 1 0 0
Cork North Central 1 1 0 1 0 1
Cork North West 1 2 0 0 0 0
Cork South Central 2 1 0 1 0 0
Cork South West 1 2 0 0 0 0
Donegal 1 0 0 3 0 1
Dublin Central 1 0 0 1 0 1
Dublin Mid West 0 1 1 1 0 1
Dublin Fingal 1 1 1 0 1 1
Dublin Bay North 1 1 0 1 0 2
Dublin North West 0 0 0 2 0 1
Dublin Rathdown 0 0 0 0 1 2
Dublin South Central 0 0 1 2 0 1
Dublin Bay South 0 1 0 0 1 2
Dublin South West 0 1 1 2 0 1
Dublin West 1 1 0 0 0 2
Dun Laoghaire 1 2 0 0 0 1
Galway East 1 1 0 0 0 1
Galway West 1 1 0 0 0 3
Kerry County 0 1 0 1 0 3
Kildare North 1 1 1 0 0 1
Kildare South 1 1 0 0 0 1
Laois 1 1 0 1 0 0
Offaly 1 0 0 0 0 2
Limerick City 1 1 0 1 0 1
Limerick 1 2 0 0 0 0
Longford-Westmeath 1 1 0 1 0 1
Louth 1 1 0 2 0 1
Mayo 1 2 0 1 0 0
Meath East 1 1 0 1 0 0
Meath West 1 1 0 1 0 0
Roscommon-Galway 0 1 0 0 0 2
Sligo-Leitrim 1 1 0 1 0 1
Tipperary 1 1 0 0 0 3
Waterford 1 1 0 1 0 1
Wexford 1 1 0 1 0 2
Wicklow 0 1 0 1 0 3
STATE 33 40 6 31 3 45

These estimates also need to take account of the candidate and competition trends unique to the different constituency. Amending the model to account for seats that may be won or lost on the basis of estimates here being based on support levels derived due to a large/small number of candidates contesting the election in 2011 (as in the large number of independent candidates competing in constituencies such as Wicklow or Laois-Offaly in 2011) or one candidate polling especially well in that election (e.g. the Shane Ross vote in Dublin South/Mick Wallace vote in Wexford) in a manner that would not amount to an extra seat for another member of the same party/grouping. Vote transfer patterns and vote management issues (e.g. discrepancies between votes won by party front runners and their running mates which would see potential seat wins fall out of a party’s hands) also need to be accounted for. Taking these concerns into account, the amended seat allocations across the constituencies would look more like this:

Constituency FF FG LB SF GP OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 0 1 0 0
Cavan-Monaghan 1 1 0 2 0 0
Clare 1 2 0 0 0 1
Cork East 1 1 1 1 0 0
Cork North Central 1 1 0 1 0 1
Cork North West 1 1 0 1 0 0
Cork South Central 2 1 0 1 0 0
Cork South West 1 2 0 0 0 0
Donegal 1 0 0 3 0 1
Dublin Central 1 0 0 1 0 1
Dublin Mid West 1 1 1 1 0 0
Dublin Fingal 1 1 1 0 1 1
Dublin Bay North 1 1 0 1 0 2
Dublin North West 0 0 0 2 0 1
Dublin Rathdown 0 0 0 0 1 2
Dublin South Central 0 0 1 2 0 1
Dublin Bay South 0 1 0 0 1 2
Dublin South West 0 1 1 2 0 1
Dublin West 1 1 1 0 0 1
Dun Laoghaire 1 2 0 0 0 1
Galway East 1 1 0 0 0 1
Galway West 1 1 0 0 0 3
Kerry County 1 1 0 1 0 2
Kildare North 1 1 1 0 0 1
Kildare South 1 1 0 0 0 1
Laois 1 1 0 1 0 0
Offaly 1 0 0 0 0 2
Limerick City 1 1 0 1 0 1
Limerick 1 2 0 0 0 0
Longford-Westmeath 1 1 1 1 0 0
Louth 1 1 0 2 0 1
Mayo 1 2 0 1 0 0
Meath East 1 1 0 1 0 0
Meath West 1 1 0 1 0 0
Roscommon-Galway 0 1 0 0 0 2
Sligo-Leitrim 1 1 0 1 0 1
Tipperary 1 1 0 0 0 3
Waterford 1 1 0 1 0 1
Wexford 1 1 0 1 0 2
Wicklow 0 1 0 1 0 3
STATE 35 40 8 32 3 40
% Seats 22.2 25.3 5.1 20.3 1.9 25.3

Based on these seat estimates, a Fine Gael-Labour (combined seat level of 48 seats) would fall far short of the number of seats required to form a government (79 seats); while a potential Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein alliance (combined seat level of 67 seats) would also fall well short of this 79 seat target.  To have a sufficient number of seats required to command a majority in Dail Eireann (79 seats in a 158 seat Dail, assuming a deputy from another party/grouping takes on the Ceann Comhairle role), a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein (or Fine Gael-Labour) alliance would need the support of at least twelve (thirty one) or more, TDs from the independent ranks or from another political grouping to be able to form a government. A Fine Gael and Sinn Fein pairing would also have an insufficient number of seats (combined seat level of 72 seats) to command a majority in Dail Eireann, but such an alliance looks to be unlikely in the present political climate in any course. On these figures, even a Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition government would not be a viable two-party coalition  (with a combined seat level of 75 seats).  The reason why such two-party coalitions would appear to be difficult prospects would of course be attributed to yet another very strong showing (in support and seat estimates terms) for the different groupings associated with the Independent and Others grouping.

********************************************************************************************************

The constituency support estimates based on the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll figures (4th April 2014), when using the new constituency units (as used for the next general election), are as follows:

FF FG LAB SF
Carlow-Kilkenny 39% 28% 7% 19% 8%
Cavan-Monaghan 22% 23% 2% 45% 8%
Clare 32% 31% 6% 7% 24%
Cork East 26% 29% 15% 25% 6%
Cork North Central 22% 19% 11% 29% 19%
Cork North West 37% 36% 6% 16% 6%
Cork South Central 40% 24% 8% 17% 12%
Cork South West 35% 36% 6% 15% 7%
Donegal 22% 14% 3% 46% 15%
Dublin Central 21% 14% 12% 26% 26%
Dublin Mid West 18% 24% 14% 26% 18%
Dublin Fingal 24% 23% 12% 6% 35%
Dublin Bay North 18% 20% 10% 19% 33%
Dublin North West 15% 11% 11% 40% 22%
Dublin Rathdown 14% 23% 8% 6% 50%
Dublin South Central 14% 16% 16% 31% 22%
Dublin Bay South 9% 20% 11% 18% 41%
Dublin South West 16% 22% 15% 27% 21%
Dublin West 26% 21% 14% 14% 26%
Dun Laoghaire 24% 29% 14% 5% 28%
Galway East 31% 32% 5% 10% 22%
Galway West 27% 21% 5% 12% 34%
Kerry County 17% 24% 7% 23% 30%
Kildare North 23% 27% 14% 13% 22%
Kildare South 33% 26% 13% 14% 14%
Laois 38% 25% 5% 26% 6%
Offaly 34% 19% 2% 12% 33%
Limerick City 32% 32% 9% 16% 10%
Limerick 31% 41% 7% 8% 12%
Longford-Westmeath 30% 29% 11% 16% 14%
Louth 20% 20% 7% 40% 12%
Mayo 25% 49% 2% 14% 9%
Meath East 29% 31% 10% 19% 11%
Meath West 32% 29% 3% 31% 5%
Roscommon-Galway 20% 22% 4% 12% 42%
Sligo-Leitrim 28% 22% 3% 31% 15%
Tipperary 22% 21% 7% 11% 40%
Waterford 20% 28% 8% 21% 23%
Wexford 28% 26% 9% 12% 24%
Wicklow 15% 24% 6% 20% 35%

Based on these constituency estimates and using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as follows:

FF FG LB SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 0 1 0
Cavan-Monaghan 1 1 0 2 0
Clare 2 1 0 0 1
Cork East 1 1 1 1 0
Cork North Central 1 1 0 1 1
Cork North West 2 1 0 0 0
Cork South Central 2 1 0 1 0
Cork South West 1 2 0 0 0
Donegal 1 0 0 3 1
Dublin Central 1 0 0 1 1
Dublin Mid West 1 1 0 1 1
Dublin Fingal 1 1 1 0 2
Dublin Bay North 1 1 0 1 2
Dublin North West 0 0 0 2 1
Dublin Rathdown 0 1 0 0 2
Dublin South Central 0 1 1 1 1
Dublin Bay South 0 1 0 1 2
Dublin South West 1 1 1 1 1
Dublin West 1 1 1 0 1
Dun Laoghaire 1 2 0 0 1
Galway East 1 1 0 0 1
Galway West 2 1 0 0 2
Kerry County 1 1 0 1 2
Kildare North 1 1 1 0 1
Kildare South 2 1 0 0 0
Laois 1 1 0 1 0
Offaly 1 1 0 0 1
Limerick City 2 1 0 1 0
Limerick 1 2 0 0 0
Longford-Westmeath 2 1 0 1 0
Louth 1 1 0 3 0
Mayo 1 3 0 0 0
Meath East 1 1 0 1 0
Meath West 1 1 0 1 0
Roscommon-Galway 0 1 0 0 2
Sligo-Leitrim 1 1 0 1 1
Tipperary 1 1 0 0 3
Waterford 1 1 0 1 1
Wexford 2 2 0 0 1
Wicklow 1 1 0 1 2
STATE 44 44 6 29 35

These estimates also need to take account of the candidate and competition trends unique to the different constituency. Amending the model to account for seats that may be won or lost on the basis of estimates here being based on support levels derived due to a large/small number of candidates contesting the election in 2011 (as in the large number of independent candidates competing in constituencies such as Wicklow or Laois-Offaly in 2011) or one candidate polling especially well in that election (e.g. the Shane Ross vote in Dublin South/Mick Wallace vote in Wexford) in a manner that would not amount to an extra seat for another member of the same party/grouping. Vote transfer patterns and vote management issues (e.g. discrepancies between votes won by party front runners and their running mates which would see potential seat wins fall out of a party’s hands) also need to be accounted for. Taking these concerns into account, the amended seat allocations across the constituencies would look more like this:

FF FG LB SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 2 2 0 1 0
Cavan-Monaghan 1 1 0 2 0
Clare 2 1 0 0 1
Cork East 1 1 1 1 0
Cork North Central 1 1 0 2 0
Cork North West 2 1 0 0 0
Cork South Central 2 1 0 1 0
Cork South West 1 2 0 0 0
Donegal 1 0 0 3 1
Dublin Central 1 0 0 1 1
Dublin Mid West 1 1 1 1 0
Dublin Fingal 1 1 1 0 2
Dublin Bay North 1 1 0 1 2
Dublin North West 0 0 0 2 1
Dublin Rathdown 0 1 0 0 2
Dublin South Central 0 1 1 1 1
Dublin Bay South 0 1 0 1 2
Dublin South West 1 1 1 2 0
Dublin West 1 1 1 0 1
Dun Laoghaire 1 2 0 0 1
Galway East 1 1 0 0 1
Galway West 2 1 0 0 2
Kerry County 1 1 0 1 2
Kildare North 1 1 1 0 1
Kildare South 2 1 0 0 0
Laois 1 1 0 1 0
Offaly 1 1 0 0 1
Limerick City 2 1 0 1 0
Limerick 1 2 0 0 0
Longford-Westmeath 2 1 0 1 0
Louth 1 1 0 3 0
Mayo 1 3 0 0 0
Meath East 1 1 0 1 0
Meath West 1 1 0 1 0
Roscommon-Galway 0 1 0 0 2
Sligo-Leitrim 1 1 0 2 0
Tipperary 1 1 0 0 3
Waterford 1 1 0 1 1
Wexford 2 2 0 0 1
Wicklow 1 1 0 1 2
STATE 44 44 7 32 31
% Seats 27.8 27.8 4.4 20.3 19.6

Based on these seat estimates, a Fine Gael-Labour (combined seat level of 51 seats) would fall far short of the number of seats required to form a government (79 seats); while a potential Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein alliance (combined seat level of 76 seats) would come relatively close to this 79 seat target.  To have a sufficient number of seats required to command a majority in Dail Eireann (79 seats in a 158 seat Dail, assuming a deputy from another party/grouping takes on the Ceann Comhairle role), a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein (or Fine Gael-Labour) alliance would need the support of at least three (twenty eight) or more, TDs from the independent ranks or from another political grouping to be able to form a government. A Fine Gael and Sinn Fein pairing would also have an insufficient number of seats (combined seat level of 76 seats) to command a majority in Dail Eireann, but such an alliance looks to be unlikely in the present political climate in any course. Ultimately, based on these numbers a Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition government would be the only viable two-party coalition and such an alliance would command a very strong Dail majority (with a combined seat level of 88 seats).  The reason why such two-party coalitions would appear to be difficult prospects could of course be attributed to yet another very strong showing (in support and seat estimates terms) for the different groupings associated with the Independent and Others grouping.

**********************************************************

Given the improved support levels for Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein relative to the 2011 General Election and figures in earlier (during 2010 and 2011) opinion poll figures, the seat estimates based on these constituency-level analyses suggest a significant improvement in Fianna Fail and especially Sinn Fein seat levels relative to those won by these parties and groupings in the 2011 contest (especially given that the fact that the eight fewer seats in the next Dail has been factored into this analysis), effectively pointing to significant gains on the part of the main Dail opposition parties since 2011. The same also applies very much to the Independents and Others grouping, but it is worth noting that, as opposed to the parties, the Independents and Others grouping is a very broad church and includes a range of parties, groups and individuals with very different ideological perspectives, including the Socialist Party and the People Before Profit alliance as well as left-leaning independents, but also politicians located in the centre-right of the political spectrum, including Fianna Fail/Fine Gael-gene pool independents and people such as Shane Ross and Stephen Donnelly. Looking at the constituencies where this grouping is predicted to win seats in this model, it can be seen that left-leaning parties and independents would take at least 19 of the 39 seats being assigned to this grouping with the Irish Independent-Millward Brown poll and at least 16 of the 33 seats being assigned to this grouping with the Irish Independent-Millward Brown poll.

The seat level estimates in all of these analyses for the Labour Party are stark (highlighting the fact that the PR-STV system is proportional, but only to a limited extent), but most notably in the Sunday Business Post-Red C poll. Previous analyses have, moreover, suggested that, especially given the increased competition on the Left from Sinn Fein, other smaller left of centre parties and left-leaning independents, that it will be a struggle for Labour to win seats in most, if not all, constituencies if the party’s national support levels fall below the ten percent level, as has been shown in similar analyses of recent Sunday Independent-Millward Brown and Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI polls. Based on the analysis of this latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll and other polls covered in this post, Labour would be in serious trouble if their national support levels fall below ten percent as the party is also facing a “perfect storm” from electoral geography and changed competition levels. These factors include the reduction in Dail seat numbers (from 166 to 158) and other changes made to general election boundaries by the 2012 Constituency Commission (which militated against Labour while seeming to advantage other parties, but notably Fianna Fail) as well as the increased competition the party now faces on the Left from Sinn Fein, other smaller left-wing parties and left-of-centre independents, as well as from Fianna Fail. When Labour support levels fell to similarly low levels in the late 1990s and early-to-mid 2000s, the party was in a position to be helped (as in the 1997, 2002 and 2007 General Elections) by transfers from lower placed candidates from the smaller left-wing parties. But on these constituency-estimate figures outlined in these analyses Labour Party candidates would find themselves polling below candidates from Sinn Fein, the Socialist Party, the Workers and Unemployed Action Group or the People Before Profit Alliance, or left-leaning independents, in a number of constituencies. Instead of being in a position to possibly benefit from vote transfers (which themselves would be likely to dry up in any case), the Labour candidates would now in a number of cases be eliminated before the final count and would be providing the transfers to see candidates from other left-of-centre political groupings over the line. (If we look at the 1987 case study – we see Labour won 6.5% of the vote in the 1987 General Election and won 12 seats, but it is also worth noting that they did not contest nine constituencies in that election, whereas their 7% national vote is being distributed across all forty constituencies in this analysis, as with the most recent general elections in which Labour has contested all constituencies. In two of the twelve constituencies in 1987 where Labour won seats – Dublin South-Central, Dublin South-West, Galway West and Wexford – vote transfers were crucial in ensuring Labour won these these seats – i.e. Labour candidates were outside the seat positions on the first count but overtook candidates with higher first preference votes as counts progressed due to transfers from other candidates.

Constituency FPV Total Poll Quota % FPV Lab/quota
Carlow-Kilkenny          7,358          57,485          9,581 12.80 0.77
Cork South-Central          4,862          56,259          9,377 8.64 0.52
Dublin South-Central          4,701          51,692          8,616 9.09 0.55
Dublin South-East          3,480          38,270          7,655 9.09 0.45
Dublin South-West          5,065          41,454          8,291 12.22 0.61
Dun Laoghaire          6,484          55,702          9,284 11.64 0.70
Galway West          3,878          52,762          8,794 7.35 0.44
Kerry North          6,739          34,764          8,692 19.38 0.78
Kildare          7,567          53,705          8,951 14.09 0.85
Louth          6,205          46,809          9,362 13.26 0.66
Wexford          5,086          52,922          8,821 9.61 0.58
Wicklow          7,754          46,003          9,201 16.86 0.84

Voting statistics for constituencies in which Labour won seats at the 1987 General Election. The table above shows that there was no constituency in 1987 in which a Labour candidate exceeded the quota and indeed successful Labour candidates, Ruairi Quinn and Michael D. Higgins won seats in their constituencies despite winning less than half of the quota in their first preference votes. In addition, Dick Spring came within a handful of votes of losing his seat in Kerry North.)

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2 thoughts on “The Pre-Election Polls: Constitiuency-level analyses of the late April and May opinions polls

  1. These opinion polls suggest two things 1.Labour are finished as a major political force and 2. The need for a party that backs up the middle vote is urgently required. The hard left is in reality not an option for most people and are really just a focal point for the disenfranchised and actually pose no threat to the current parties of the right.

    SF for their part are currently making deep inroads in the centre vote, such is the level of frustration amongst the electorate, we are tired of the constant same old same old mentality of the established parties.

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