“I’m in!” – Gallagher campaign gathers momentum and Sinn Fein support surging in latest series of opinion polls

Adrian Kavanagh, 6th-9th October 2011 The two presidential election polls and the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI and Sunday Times-Behaviour and Attitudes polls on party support intentions offers interesting trends. Sean Gallagher has emerged as the surprise package in the presidential election polls and poses a more serious threat to Michael D. Higgins than that which Martin McGuinness and David Norris…

And they’re off!

paddypower.com has these odds for the presidential race up: Michael D.Higgins evens David Norris 9/4 Martin McGuinness 4/1 Gay Mitchell 8/1 Mary Davis 12/1 Sean Gallagher 40/1 Dana Rosemary Scallon 50/1 Looking like a two-horse race (candidates very rarely win with odds outside of 3/1). Will be interesting to see if these numbers shift in the coming…

Red C-Sunday Business Post polls (25th September): Transfer patterns suggest Higgins to win with Davis as main challenger

Adrian Kavanagh, Sunday 25th September 2011 The main message coming from the two Red C-Sunday Business Post opinion polls, published on 25th September, is that vote transfers would see Michael D Higgins win the presidency despite trailing David Norris in terms of first preference votes. In all, the polls offer mixed messages for the government parties, some…

Should Fianna Fáil run a presidential candidate?

By Michael Gallagher FF has got itself into something of a tangle over the presidential election. Torn between a range of options that seems to proliferate all the time – run its own candidate, facilitate a FF member to run as an independent, facilitate any independent who requires signatures to secure a nomination, allow each…

Early September polls: Presidential election victory for Higgins and potential for a Fine Gael landslide?

Adrian Kavanagh, 4th September 2011 The Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll, published on 4th September offers varying fortunes for the two government parties, amounting to very good news for Fine Gael but dismal fortunes for Labour. My constituency level analysis suggest Fine Gael would win a landslide victory based on these figures if they transpired in an…

The Government’s Reform Measures to Date: A Good Start but (Much) More to Do

Post by David Farrell (July 11 2011) A re-reading of the Coalition Government’s Programme for Government is timely. It’s worth taking stock of the political reform proposals that have been implemented, those that are on going, and those that are (firmly) promised. There has been some undoubted progress, but a lot – a lot –…

The Constitution Review Group report – a great (free) resource for Irish citizens

A topic that emerged rather unexpectedly from the We the Citizens event that I attended in June was the importance of civic education. At my table, the argument for focusing attention on this topic was that citizens need to be politically well-informed in order to understand the powers of political offices and the consequences of …