Adrian Kavanagh, 19th February 2011 The Red C opinion poll, published in the 20th February edition of The Sunday Business Post estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 16%, Fine Gael 39%, Labour 17%, Green Party 2%, Sinn Fein 12%, Others 14%. Based solely on these poll figures, my uniform-swing constituency level analysis models seat estimates for the different parties/groupings…
Eoin O’Malley (19 February, 2011) We have a tendency to see new polls and take them as indicating some real change in the fortunes of the parties since the last comparable poll was taken, when possibly much of the variation is caused by differences in samples – the luck of the draw. One way to alleviate the…
Eoin O’Malley (15 February, 2011) There’s is some degree of agreement in the opinion polls of all types (different companies, candidate based ballot paper questions and party questions, local polls and national polls) that over the course of the campaign Fine Gael has trended upwards and Labour downwards. As we can see from the Red…
Adrian Kavanagh, 15th February 2011 The Millward-Brown opinion poll, published in the 16th February edition of The Irish Independent estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 12%, Fine Gael 38%, Labour 23%, Green Party 3%, Sinn Fein 10%, Others 16%. Based solely on these poll figures, my uniform-swing constituency level analysis models seat estimates for the…
neilardiff.com Eoin O’Malley (12 February 2011) The polls are making the Labour party’s ‘Gilmore for Taoiseach’ campaign strategy irrelevant. In any case is it sensible for the left to enter government with a centre right party again?
Eoin O’Malley (17 February, 2011) Updated with seat projections We have a tendency to see new polls and take them as indicating some real change in the fortunes of the parties since the last comparable poll was taken, when possibly much of the variation is caused by differences in samples – the luck of the draw. One…
Adrian Kavanagh, 12th February 2011 The Red-C poll to be published in the 13th February edition of the Sunday Business Post estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 15%, Fine Gael 38%, Labour 20%, Green Party 3%, Sinn Fein 10%, Others 14% – based on these poll figures, my constituency level analysis (as described in previous…
By Michael Gallagher In essence there are two ways of trying to convert opinion poll findings regarding voting intentions into seat totals for the political parties. One, employed in the earlier post by Adrian Kavanagh (5 Feb, two posts below this one), is to assume uniform swing across the country; apply this to the party…
Adrian Kavanagh, 5th February 2011 The Red-C poll to be published in the 6th February edition of the Sunday Business Post estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 17%, Fine Gael 35%, Labour 22%, Green Party 2%, Sinn Fein 13%, Others 11% – based on these poll figures, my constituency level analysis (as described in previous…
Eoin O’Malley(4th February, 2011) The national polls carried out by reputable agencies such as Red C or Ipsos-mrbi are reliable as guides of the likely percentages the parties would get if the election were held at that time. In the middle of a campaign they are even better guides of the eventual result because potential…
Irish Politics Forum 