Adrian Kavanagh, 12th February 2011
The Red-C poll to be published in the 13th February edition of the Sunday Business Post estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 15%, Fine Gael 38%, Labour 20%, Green Party 3%, Sinn Fein 10%, Others 14% – based on these poll figures, my constituency level analysis (as described in previous posts) estimates seat levels for the parties as follows: Fianna Fail 20, Fine Gael 76, Labour 38, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 12, Others 20 (including 6 United Left Alliance candidates – overall 11 “Left” leaning Others/9 “Right” leaning Others).
Seat levels for different coalition options would stand as follows: Fine Gael/Labour 114 seats (majority of 62 seats), Fine Gael/”Right-leaning” Independents-Others 85 seats (majority of 4 seats), Fine Gael/Fianna Fail 96 (majority of 26 seats), Fianna Fail/Labour 58 seats, Fianna Fail/Labour/Sinn Fein 70 seats, “Left Coalition” 61 seats, Fine Gael/Green Party 76 seats, Fine Gael/”Right-leaning” Independents-Others/Green Party 85 seats (majority of 4 seats).
The Others grouping is a very broad church, involving a number of left-leaning independents and smaller parties (including the United Left Alliance grouping), as well as business/reform independents and disaffected former members of Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Labour. The model would guesstimate that 10 of the 17 seats allocated to Others would fall to left-leaning independents/smaller parties, including six seats for United Left Alliance candidates (Barry – Cork NC, Daly – Dublin N, Collins – Dublin SC, Higgins – Dublin W, Boyd Barrett – Dun L, Healy – Tipperary S).
Based on the poll figures my constituency level analysis estimates party support levels in the different constituencies as follows:
| FF | FG | LB | GP | SF | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 20% | 47% | 21% | 6% | 6% | 0% |
| Cavan-Monaghan | 13% | 42% | 2% | 2% | 28% | 13% |
| Clare | 17% | 51% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 20% |
| Cork East | 12% | 39% | 37% | 2% | 9% | 1% |
| Cork North Central | 11% | 33% | 21% | 2% | 10% | 23% |
| Cork North West | 23% | 63% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
| Cork South Central | 18% | 44% | 20% | 6% | 8% | 4% |
| Cork South West | 16% | 52% | 20% | 4% | 8% | 0% |
| Donegal North East | 20% | 34% | 11% | 1% | 27% | 7% |
| Donegal South West | 20% | 36% | 6% | 1% | 34% | 2% |
| Dublin Central | 15% | 12% | 23% | 3% | 12% | 35% |
| Dublin Mid West | 13% | 30% | 24% | 8% | 15% | 10% |
| Dublin North | 16% | 21% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 28% |
| Dublin North Central | 15% | 34% | 14% | 3% | 5% | 29% |
| Dublin North East | 14% | 32% | 30% | 4% | 19% | 0% |
| Dublin North West | 17% | 14% | 40% | 2% | 22% | 5% |
| Dublin South | 17% | 44% | 24% | 8% | 5% | 1% |
| Dublin South Central | 10% | 17% | 35% | 3% | 12% | 24% |
| Dublin South East | 11% | 28% | 35% | 9% | 7% | 10% |
| Dublin South West | 13% | 25% | 35% | 2% | 16% | 9% |
| Dublin West | 12% | 24% | 29% | 2% | 6% | 27% |
| Dun Laoghaire | 12% | 32% | 30% | 5% | 3% | 18% |
| Galway East | 15% | 57% | 6% | 1% | 5% | 15% |
| Galway West | 12% | 26% | 20% | 3% | 4% | 34% |
| Kerry North-West Lim’k | 10% | 39% | 19% | 1% | 26% | 6% |
| Kerry South | 13% | 30% | 23% | 1% | 4% | 28% |
| Kildare North | 13% | 27% | 31% | 3% | 3% | 23% |
| Kildare South | 20% | 27% | 46% | 4% | 0% | 3% |
| Laois-Offaly | 27% | 51% | 6% | 1% | 10% | 5% |
| Limerick City | 21% | 42% | 24% | 2% | 7% | 5% |
| Limerick | 20% | 65% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Longford-Westmeath | 15% | 43% | 35% | 1% | 6% | 1% |
| Louth | 16% | 43% | 10% | 5% | 23% | 2% |
| Mayo | 11% | 70% | 11% | 0% | 7% | 0% |
| Meath East | 15% | 35% | 23% | 2% | 6% | 19% |
| Meath West | 21% | 46% | 9% | 2% | 18% | 4% |
| Roscommon-South Leit’m | 13% | 52% | 22% | 1% | 12% | 0% |
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 15% | 56% | 8% | 2% | 17% | 2% |
| Tipperary North | 9% | 17% | 15% | 1% | 4% | 54% |
| Tipperary South | 7% | 21% | 12% | 1% | 3% | 56% |
| Waterford | 17% | 38% | 22% | 1% | 10% | 13% |
| Wexford | 15% | 44% | 27% | 1% | 11% | 2% |
| Wicklow | 6% | 24% | 24% | 4% | 5% | 37% |
Based on these constituency estimates, I would guesstimate seat levels to fall as follows in the different constituencies:
| FF | FG | LB | GP | SF | OTH | |
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Cavan-Monaghan | 3 | 2 | ||||
| Clare | 3 | 1 | ||||
| Cork East | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Cork North Central | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Cork North West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Cork South Central | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Cork South West | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Donegal North East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Donegal South West | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin Central | 1 | 1 | 2 | |||
| Dublin Mid West | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin North Central | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Dublin North East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Dublin North West | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Dublin South | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Dublin South Central | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dublin South East | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Dublin South West | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dublin West | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Dun Laoghaire | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Galway East | 3 | 1 | ||||
| Galway West | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||
| Kerry North-West Lim’k | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Kerry South | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Kildare North | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Kildare South | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Laois-Offaly | 2 | 3 | ||||
| Limerick City | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Limerick | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Longford-Westmeath | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Louth | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Mayo | 1 | 4 | ||||
| Meath East | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Meath West | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Roscommon-South Leit’m | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Sligo-North Leitrim | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Tipperary North | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Tipperary South | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Waterford | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Wexford | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Wicklow | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| STATE | 20 | 76 | 38 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
As noted a number of times, this is a very rough model based on a “uniform swing” assumption – assuming that the national swing from the 2007 general election support levels to current opinion poll support levels would be replicated exactly in each constituency. As a result, it can over-inflate constituency support estimates in constituencies where parties/groupings were already starting from a very high base; e.g. Fine Gael in Mayo, Labour in Kildare South, Others in Dublin Central, Galway West, Tipperary North and Wicklow. But, in terms of the overall national estimation of seat estimates it could be argued that the over-estimation of support levels in some constituencies is compensated for by under-estimating the probable party support levels in other constituencies; e.g. Fine Gael in Dublin Central and Wicklow, Labour in Dublin North Central and Louth – hence, the award of an extra seat to a party in an “over-estimated” constituency may be compensated by the “non-award” of a seat in an “under-estimated constituency”. The high national support level for the Others grouping probably cannot be adequately illustrated as, given that it is based around 2007 support patterns, it cannot detect areas where new independent and small party candidates may poll exceptionally well in this coming election; e.g. Donegal North East, Wexford.
The model predicts that Fine Gael would win 76 seats and the reality is that the party will likely win a seat in Dublin Central and second seat in Wicklow which the poll fails to detect (of course, there may be other constituencies where the Fine Gael vote is over-estimated and the seats predicted here may not fall to the party – possibly the second seat in Kerry North-West Limerick, third seat in constituencies where the party is predicted to win three out of four seats, while the high level of seats predicted within Cork may not arise following the election of a Fianna Fail leader from that county). Over and above the 78 seats level, are there any other constituencies where Fine Gael could realistically win extra seats to push them closer to an overall majority? The most likely contenders would include a seat in Dublin North West, second seats in Dublin North, Galway East and Meath East, a third potential seat in Wicklow. As the party’s national support levels edges closer to the 40 per cent mark and the “Kenny Krusade” gains pace, the prospects of an overall Fine Gael majority increase, but on the present high-30s poll levels it must be said the party effectively requires a perfect storm of good fortune in terms of vote transfers across a number of constituencies in order to hit the magic 83 seat mark.
Irish Politics Forum 
It looks like Fine Gael nicely on course for majority government .
I’m not sure how you’re breaking down your figures but I can’t see how you are giving FG just 12% in Dublin Central.
Everybody (of all political colours) has said that Paschal Donohoe is likely to get a seat here. 12% would be a drop of 10% in FG’s vote in the 2009 by-election and up just 2% on their 2007 performance. Given the current polling that seems unrealistic. Perhaps you need to look at that one again.
I think something has gone with your numbers, Adrian. You yourself have openly predicted Donohoe would take the second seat in Dublin Central. Now you have him winning none after his party climbed three nationally? That makes no sense. You have Fine Gael losing seats in places where they have two despite vote increases. You should recheck your figures.
Jim + 1
Your calculation regarding Roscommon/South Leitrim has Others/Independents at 0%.
Yet the Bookies have very short odds on Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan winning a seat.
Two indo’s is very unlikely in Dublin Central. Also FG would get a seat and given the division within FF there there’ll be no FF seat.
SF in Dublin Central or Laois Offaly would be more likely than Dublin Mid West.
How are you giving Fine Gael only 1 seat in MEATH EAST, BUT AN INDEPENDENT 1??????
MEATH EAST WILL BE AS FOLLOWS: FG: 2, LAB: 1
Regina Doherty is VERY POPULAR (I was out canvassing all day). She will get in based on McEntee transfers and No.2’s from Hannigan – she will beat Fianna Fail at the end
Also, how are FG only getting 1 seat in Wicklow?????
They will also get 2 in South Tipperary as Tom Hayes will transfer well to Michael Murphy to beat Mattie McGrath.
Your figures in Dublin Central are also COMPLETELY OFF THE MARK!!!
Yea again there may be one Independent elected in Dublin Central not two and Pascal Donoghue surely should get in.
I know you’ve been applying uniform swings throughout and that they’ve been useful as a guide since you started these last year. But now that candidates have been declared, I think to be credible you have to adjust individual constituencies. Wicklow will naturally be the first I check. Which of the two declared Independents do you see taking it?
Apologies if you have explained this before, but how can you give FF two seats in Louth, and SF only one, on that projected vote share?
Seamus Kirk is automatically returned as Ceann Comhairle
No Shane Ross in Dublin South. Would have taught he would have topped the poll and be elected on first count, hence not rely on transfers?
Isn’t 3% within the margin on these opinion polls?
The figures in this post are wrong
Carlow Kilkenny approx figures
2007 (+/-)00%=2011
FF got 47%-26%=21%
FG got 29%+10%=38%
La got 9%+10%=22%
SF got 3%+3%=6%
The same applies to many of the other constituencies, and this detracts from the liability of the methodology.
When I ran my own analysis of todays poll I got FF 23, FG 80, Lab 34 SF 11 Others 17
Several posters say Adrian’s model is inaccurate based on calculations from a few individual constituency – which misses the point made in the article : “in terms of the overall national estimation of seat estimates it could be argued that the over-estimation of support levels in some constituencies is compensated for by under-estimating the probable party support levels in other constituencies; e.g. Fine Gael in Dublin Central…”.
A good case can be made for Donohoe winning a seat in the old constituency of Bertie Ahern, but i would not push it.
Here is a detailed comment I made on another blog recently :
http://cedarlounge.wordpress.com/2011/02/03/all-changed-utterly-dublin-north-east/#comments
As you can see I do predict an extra bum on the Leinster House seats for Enda Kenny’s army, but it is very far from certain.
In the meantime Mary FitzPatrick of Fianna Fáil has waged a very strong campaign ; it will ccome down to whether she gets ahead of Donohoe after Cyprian Brady’s likely elimination. If she succeeds, Donohoe probably will not be a TD.
On the other side of the coin, I harbour increasing doubts about Mary-Lou McDonald’s prospects, because she faces strong competition from Christy Burke and Cierán Perry.
I am sure you could amke similar guesses across all the cosntituencies, but you will not call them all accurately. Which brings us back nicely to Adrian’s original point.
Some more thoughts about the opinion poll trends, local and national :
http://cedarlounge.wordpress.com/2011/02/15/that-local-poll-in-cork-north-central/#comment-92046
Hi
How can you predict two fg seats in Cork north central, THe seats in that const. will go 1lab 1sf 1 fg and 1 socialst party and i will wager my house on that. also you have Sinn fein on 0% in cork north west, i live in cork north west and Des O’Grady votes will decide if lab or fg get the last seat