Adrian Kavanagh, 7th January 2011 Ah a New Year dawns (Happy New Year btw folks) and brings with it a new poll and some more figures to be crunched. A Red C poll carried out for Paddy Power estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 14%, Fine Gael 35%, Labour 21%, Sinn Fein 14%, Green Party…
Adrian Kavanagh, 21 December 2010 – latest updates: 30 December 2010 As an alternative perspective to the opinion poll results that have been published over the past few weeks and my constituency-level models and analysis of these, Newstalk 106-108 FM this morning presented the findings of a prediction survey that was able to draw on…
Adrian Kavanagh, 18 December 2010 Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll December 20: FF 17 (NC), FG 34 (+1), Lab 23 (-4), Greens 2 (-1), SF 14 (+3), Others 10 (+2) On the basis of these figures, my constituency-level analysis of the poll estimates seat levels as follows: Fianna Fail 27, Fine Gael 66, Labour 46, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 15, Independents 12 (including 5 United…
Adrian Kavanagh, 15 December 2010 Irish Times Ipsos-MRBI opinion poll December 16: FF 17 (-7), FG 30 (+6), Lab 25 (-8), Greens 2 (NC), SF 15 (+7), Others 11 (+2) On the basis of these figures, my constituency-level analysis of the poll estimates seat levels as follows: Fianna Fail 26, Fine Gael 58, Labour 46, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 18, Others 18 (including 6 United…
It has been reported that a Red C poll to be published in tomorrow’s Irish Sun estimates party support levels as follows: Fianna Fail 13%. Fine Gael 32%, Labour 24%, Green Party 3%, Sinn Fein 16%, Independents/Others 11%. Bad and all as these figures are for Fianna Fail, my constituency level analysis of the poll…
Fianna Fail experienced a significant loss in support in the recent Donegal South West by-election relative to their support level in that constituency, with their support down by 12,792 votes and percentage share of the vote down by 29.2%. But the recent history of the party has shown a tendency for the party to poll…
Adrian Kavanagh, 22nd November 2010 Could a separate youth constituency improve participation/representation levels amongst the younger section of the electorate?
Adrian Kavanagh, 21st November 2010 The latest Sunday Business Post/Red C poll figures estimate party support as follows: Fianna Fail 17%, Fine Gael 33%, Labour Party 27%, Sinn Fein 11%, Green Party 3%, Independents/Others 8%, marking a 1% gain for Fine Gael and a 1% loss for Fianna Fail relative to the October 24th poll…
Adrian Kavanagh, 17 November 2010 Red C opinion poll figures for the Donegal South West by-election and the subsequent general election in that constituency provide ill tidings for Fianna Fail but offer very good news for Sinn Fein and Labour in that constituency. But past electoral trends suggest that geographical factors/local voting trends will also need…
Adrian Kavanagh, 5 November 2010 On the basis of the most recent general election results in Donegal South West, this might be expected to be one constituency where Fianna Fail could actually have a realistic chance of winning a by-election (thus becoming the first government party to do so since Noel Treacy won the Galway…
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