“I’m in!” – Gallagher campaign gathers momentum and Sinn Fein support surging in latest series of opinion polls

Adrian Kavanagh, 6th-9th October 2011 The two presidential election polls and the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI and Sunday Times-Behaviour and Attitudes polls on party support intentions offers interesting trends. Sean Gallagher has emerged as the surprise package in the presidential election polls and poses a more serious threat to Michael D. Higgins than that which Martin McGuinness and David Norris…

Red C-Sunday Business Post polls (25th September): Transfer patterns suggest Higgins to win with Davis as main challenger

Adrian Kavanagh, Sunday 25th September 2011 The main message coming from the two Red C-Sunday Business Post opinion polls, published on 25th September, is that vote transfers would see Michael D Higgins win the presidency despite trailing David Norris in terms of first preference votes. In all, the polls offer mixed messages for the government parties, some…

Taxi for Fianna Fail? Sunday Independent-Millward Brown Lansdowne poll 18th September 2011

The Sunday Independent-Millward Brown Lansdowne poll offers a somewhat different picture of the political landscape to the Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes poll of 4th September. While it continues the trend of strong poll showings by Fine Gael, this poll sees Labour’s standings back at the levels enjoyed by the party earlier in the year and marks a stark contrast to the…

Early September polls: Presidential election victory for Higgins and potential for a Fine Gael landslide?

Adrian Kavanagh, 4th September 2011 The Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll, published on 4th September offers varying fortunes for the two government parties, amounting to very good news for Fine Gael but dismal fortunes for Labour. My constituency level analysis suggest Fine Gael would win a landslide victory based on these figures if they transpired in an…

Constituency-level analysis of June 22nd Irish Independent/Millward Brown Lansdowne opinion poll

Adrian Kavanagh, 22 June 2011 The latest edition of the Irish Independent-Millward Brown Lansdowne series of opinion polls almost mirrors last month’s Red C-Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll and offers very good news for Fine Gael whose support levels are seen to stand at 5-6% higher than the levels attained in February’s general election. Applying my constituency level…