Adrian Kavanagh, 25th October 2011

The final series of opinion polls at the weekend saw Sean Gallagher maintain, and even widen somewhat, the lead he established over Michael D. Higgins and the other candidates in the previous weekend’s Sunday Business Post-Red C poll, although the sheer momentum he had built up over the previous few weeks has abated somewhat.

The release of the presidential election polls by Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI, Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes and Sunday Business Post-Red C all underline how dramatically the campaign changed over the previous few weeks, with the list of potential winners being effectively funnelled down from five or six potential winners back at the end of September to just two candidates with realistic ambitions of winning the contest, Higgins and Gallagher. Both these candidates’ support levels have increased over the course of the campaign, but the increase in Gallagher support has been particularly dramatic over the past month and, as with last week’s Red C poll, he has now established a commanding lead over Higgins and the rest of the field. The trends in all three of the weekend’s polls appear remarkably consistent.  The Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll estimates support levels for the candidates as follows (comared to the previous such poll on October 6th): Gallagher 40% (+20%), Higgins 25% (+2%), McGuinness 15% (-4%), Norris 8% (-3%), Mitchell 6% (-3%), Scallon 3% (-3%), Davis 3% (-9%). The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll estimates support levels for the candidates as follows (relative to the previous week’s Red C poll): Gallagher 40% (+1%), Higgins 26% (-1%), McGuinness 13% (NC), Norris 10% (+3%), Mitchell 6% (-2%), Scallon 3% (+1%), Davis 2% (-2%).  The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attituides poll estimates support levels for the candidates as follows (relative to previous such poll on 9th October): Gallagher 38%, Higgins 26%, McGuinness 17%, Mitchell 8%, Norris 6%, Davis 3%, Scallon 2%.

On the basis of these figures, Sean Gallagher will win the presidency, edging out Michael D Higgins on the final count but by a slightly narrower margin (even though the Gallagher first preference lead increases) than that envisaged in the previous post relating to the October 16th Sunday Business Post-Red C poll, as the Red C figures envisage that Higgins will take a somewhat higher share of transfers – and in particular transfers from Martin McGuinness – than the levels envisaged in the previous week’s release of polling data.

As the only poll to provide detailed transfer intention data, this analysis will focus on the figures provided in the Sunday Business Post-Red C poll in terms of trying to estimate the likely election outcome. First step in this model will be to estimate the turnout for the election. The turnout is likely to be lower than the turnout for the general election, but there will be likely to be more people voting than in the previous presidential election in 1997. Fortunately there was also a general election in 1997 and this can offer a yardstick to help guesstimate the turnout. The numbers turning out to vote increased by 24.1% between the general elections of 1997 (1,806,932 voting) and 2011 (2,243,176 voting). Applying the same level of increase to the number that
turned out to vote in the presidential election of 1997 (1,279,688) gives us a turnout of 1,588,641 voters. Given that 1997 was a highly uncompetitive election in which Mary McAlese had established an unassailable poll lead some weeks before the election, the likelihood is that the high profile afforded the current contest added to the very competitive nature of the contest suggested by these, and other, poll figures, the likelihood is that the turnout may well be higher than what is estimated here, so in this analysis a slightly higher turnout estimate (1,765,157) will be used which would put the national turnout level for this election around the 55% mark. Different turnout levels between areas and groups could well also have a significant bearing on the election outcome, especially in cases where the two main contenders are drawing the main support from high/low turnout geographical areas, age cohorts and social groups.

Based on the poll figures (for support and transfer patterns) and this estimated turnout value, the counts would be likely to progress as follows:

Thus this model would conceive that Gallagher would win the contest by a relatively comfortable margin (210,755 votes) over Higgins on the final count. Indeed a further swing of around two and a half percent to him from Higgins/McGuinness could see him elected without needing the elimination of McGuinness and his transfers to ensure victory. As noted above, in terms of first preference votes Gallagher widens his lead over Higgins in this poll (by a margin of 2%), but Higgins’ stronger ability to attract transfers in this particular poll actually means that the gap between the two narrows relative to that for the similar analysis (see below) of the October 16th poll (which would be estimated as 231,921 votes if the same estimated turnout level is used):

Higgins is now estimated to take more of the McGuinness transfers (30%) than Gallagher (26%), whereas the previous week’s poll figures suggested Gallagher would take four times as many McGuinness transfers. This could be a crucial factor if the race between these two candidates narrows over the final few days of the campaign. On the basis of the transfer data provided with this Red C poll, a six per cent swing from Gallagher to Higgins (leaving Gallagher at 34%, Higgins at 32%) could yet see Higgins in the Aras, as Higgins’ stronger ability to attract transfers from especially Norris and McGuinness would see him eat into the Gallagher lead as the counts progress and the transfers of other candidates are distributed (as below):

Controversies surrounding the Gallagher campaign, which emerged in a testy final presidential debate on Monday, may suggest that there may be a late swing away from him to Higgins (in which case a five/six percent swing would make for a very close contest between the two, as suggested above) – on the other hand, a sympathy factor may act to bolster the Galalgher lead and see him comfortably elected as the next president of the Republic of Ireland.   

The model also suggests that only three candidates will win a sufficient number of first preference votes and transfers to reach the sufficient number of votes (12.5% of what first preference votes amounted to/one quarter of the quota) at any stage during the count (and before they are eliminated) to allow them to reclaim campaign expenses – in the case of the model above this figure would amount to 220,605 votes. Higgins and Gallagher obviously would be expected to exceed that level based on these poll figures. In terms of the other candidates, on these figures McGuinness would seem to be strongly placed to take third place in the election and should expect to win a sufficient support level to allow him to reclaim campaign expenses but a low turnout level amongst his support base could see his actual vote fall dangerously close to this threshold. Mary Davis and Dana would currently appear to entertain few hopes of reaching this threshold at any stage during the count before their elimination based on these figures (although it is worth noting that Dana did exceed this 12.5% threshold in 1997, even though the polls leading up to the election consistently suggested that she wouldn’t achieve a sufficient level of support). The stronger placed candidate out of Gay Mitchell and David Norris may entertain some hopes however, although this would require them to claw back some further support over the final week of the campaign. On these figures Norris would be the stronger and would have attained a level of votes and transfers equivalent to 11.9% of the first preference votes when he would be eliminated based on this analysis – so he could entertain some hopes that a slightly higher support level for him in the election could see him at least be in a position to reclaim campaign expenses.     

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The October 23rd Sunday Business Post-Red C poll puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings as follows: Fine Gael 31% (down 2% relative to the last such poll in September 2011), Labour 17% (up 1%), Fianna Fail 14% (down 1%), Sinn Fein 16% (up 1%),  Independents, Green Party and Others 22% (up 1%). As such there are only minor variations relative to the previous such poll, with a slight swing away from the government parties (or rather Fine Gael) and the centrist parties/the old “main” parties (Fianna Fail and Fine Gael) toward Sinn Fein and the smaller parties. 

Based solely on assigning seats on the basis of the constituency support estimates (simply using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats), party seat levels would be estimated as follows: Fine Gael 67, Labour 28, Fianna Fail 16, Sinn Fein 21, Others 34. When the factors of vote transfers and vote splitting/management (based on vote transfer/management patterns oberved in the February 2011 election) are accounted for and constituency marginality levels at the February 2011 election taken account of, the party seat levels would more than likely be as follows: Fine Gael 66, Labour 35, Fianna Fail 14, Sinn Fein 23, Others 28.

The constituency support estimates based on the poll figures are as follows:

Based solely on assigning seats on the basis of the constituency support estimates (simply using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats), party seat levels would be estimated as follows:

When the model is amended to account for seats that may be won or lost on the basis of a large/small number of candidates contesting the election, vote transfers and vote management (e.g. discrepancies between votes won by party front runners and their running mates which would see potential seat wins fall out of a party’s hands), the seat allocations across the constituencies would look more like this:

Given that there are a number of other potential gains seen to be within Sinn Fein’s grasp (such as Roscommon-South Leitrim, Limerick City, Waterford), in addition to the nine seats gains suggested by the results of this analysis (with Sinn Fein candidates such as Kathleen Funchion, John Brady and Eoin O Broin predicted to take seats), this has to be seen as a very good result for that party and suggests that the party may be making political gains resulting from their decision to contest the presidential election and to take the gamble of running a high profile candidate in Martin McGuinness (even if he is not in a position to win the contest). The very polarised geography of support for Sinn Fein means that the party can win a significant number of seats with support levels in the low teens, as this translates into sufficiently high support levels to win seats in their stronger constituencies (and very low support levels in their weak constituencies). However, this means that there is a “ceiling” in terms of the potential number of seats they party can win while their support level remains in the 10-20 percent range, as even as support nationally increases they will still be well off the pace in terms of winning seats in their weakest constituencies, such as Dublin South. In a similar vein (although the Labour geography of support would not be as defined, or polarised, as Sinn Fein’s) Labour experienced a similar problem in the 2011 General Election in trying to translate the “Gilmore Gale” surge in party support into seat gains in traditionally weak constituencies such as Mayo, Cavan-Monaghan and the two Donegal constituencies.

While combined support levels for the government parties are seen to fall by 7%  relative to the February 2011 election figures and both parties would be predicted to lose  a number of seats (but particularly Fine Gael), the two parties would still be winning a more than a sufficient number of seats to maintain a comfortable majority in Dail Eireann based on these poll figures. For Fianna Fail, these poll figures suggest that the party is at risk of  being outstripped by Sinn Fein as the main party amongst the opposition groups and the party runs the risk of being marginalised (as it has in terms of main political events at present by the party’s decision not to run a candidate in the presidential election, although this has been significantly tempered by the Gallagher success). With a potential combined total of around seventy seats across Labour, Sinn Fein and left-leaning independents and smaller party (including ULA) candidates, the poll findings also suggest the potential of an alternative Left coalition government option, should Fine Gael and Fianna Fail over time move towards a political marriage in the centre or the centre-right of the Irish political spectrum.

Based solely on translating the trends evidenced in this poll into constituency support estimates in Dublin West the by-election contest looks like being extremely close between the Fine Gael candidate, Eithne Loftus, the Socialist Party candidate, Ruth Coppinger, and the Labour candidate, Patrick Nulty. As noted previously, a study of past by-election trends since 198o shows that government party tends tend to fare poorly in by-elections and a growing realisation that voters will vote differently in different types of elections means that Ruth Coppinger might be well placed to win (at least in terms of first preference votes!) what is ultimately boiling down to a three horse race in Dublin West.