Red C/Paddy Power Poll, 7th January 2011: Kenny Krusade and Doherty Drive kicks into gear?

Adrian Kavanagh, 7th January 2011

Ah a New Year dawns (Happy New Year btw folks) and brings with it a new poll and some more figures to be crunched. A Red C poll carried out for Paddy Power estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 14%, Fine Gael 35%, Labour 21%, Sinn Fein 14%, Green Party 4%, Others 12%. Based on these figures, my constituency level analysis would estimate the number of seats that parties would win based on these levels of national support to be as follows: Fianna Fail 15, Fine Gael 72, Labour 41, Sinn Fein 17, Green Party 2, Others 19

The poll results were also produced in regional breakdown terms, with the following figures presented for the different provinces/regions:  Leinster: Fianna Fail 15%, Fine Gael 37%, Labour 21%, Sinn Fein 11%, Green Party 2%, Others 14% ; Connacht-Ulster: Fianna Fail 16%, Fine Gael 35%, Labour 13%, Sinn Fein 20%, Green Party 3%, Others 13% ; Munster: Fianna Fail 17%, Fine Gael 38%, Labour 18%, Sinn Fein 14%, Green Party 4%, Others 9% ; Dublin: Fianna Fail 10%, Fine Gael 29%, Labour 29%, Sinn Fein 11%, Green Party 6%, Others 15%. Based on these regional-level poll figures, my constituency level analysis would estimate the number of seats (nationally) that parties would win based on these levels of regional support to be as follows: Fianna Fail 20, Fine Gael 73, Labour 36, Sinn Fein 17, Green Party 1, Others 19

As noted in earlier similar poll-related posts, the proportion of seats won by parties in Irish general elections does not tend to measure up exactly to their actual share of the first preference vote (although the system is decidedly more proportional than its UK counterpart), mainly because party’s first preference votes need to be geographically filtered through the system of Irish electoral constituencies. In order to assess how poll figures could translate into Dail seats, I attempt to estimate what party first preference votes would be in different constituencies, assuming similar (proportional) change in party vote shares in all constituencies, as with all the earlier RedC and Ispos/MRBI poll analyses. This particilar analysis will also produces estimates based on changing party supports levels regionally as well as nationally, given that regional breakdowns in support are available for this poll.

How does this approach work? Well, for instance, Fianna Fail’s share of the vote in Dublin is estimated in this poll to now stand at just under one-quarter of the level of support that the party won in 2007, while Labour support in the Dublin region is estimate to be almost twice the vote share that the party won in the capital in the last election. So for any Dublin constituency, the Fianna Fail support levels would be estimated at two-sevenths of the percentage support levels achieved by Fianna Fail in 2007 in that constituency and the Labour support level would be estimated at twice their 2007 percentage support levels in the capital. Constituency estimates for other parties would be similarly calculated. The final constituency estimates are calculated on the basis of rounding up numbers so that support levels for all parties and political groups in that constituency adds up to 100%. This of course is a very rough model, and ignores the fact that changing support levels between elections tend to vary geographically, even within specific provinces or regions, and also the impact that territory transfers, brought in by the 2007 Constituency Commission report, would have on vote share (although changing numbers of seats are taken account of).

On the assumption that the base level of Labour support in Donegal North-East, Roscommon-South Leitrim, Longford-Westmeath and Mayo will have been added to by the recent acquisitions of Jimmy Harte, John Kelly, Mae Sexton and Jerry Cowley respectively, as with Fine Gael support in Dublin Mid West with the addition of Derek Keating. I have added these candidates 2007 levels to the Labour (and Fine Gael) support levels in these constituencies to generate more realistic estimates there, while the Fianna Fail and Independent base levels in Tipperary South and Wicklow are similarly altered to reflect Behan and McGrath’s departure to the independent ranks. Based on these estimated figures, I proceed to estimate the destination of seats in the different constituencies in each of the different region/provinces and then to aggregate these to complete the national estimates.

Here are the estimates of constituency level party support based on what the model would predict on the basis of the national level poll figures:

 
  FF FG LB GP SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 18.3% 43.2% 22.1% 7.7% 8.7% 0.0%
Cavan-Monaghan 11.6% 36.4% 2.3% 2.8% 36.7% 10.2%
Clare 16.3% 49.5% 3.6% 4.7% 7.6% 18.4%
Cork East 11.3% 35.0% 38.4% 2.2% 12.2% 0.8%
Cork North Central 10.4% 30.6% 22.2% 2.6% 14.3% 19.9%
Cork North West 22.2% 61.3% 12.7% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Cork South Central 16.3% 39.8% 21.0% 7.8% 11.3% 3.7%
Cork South West 14.9% 47.8% 20.7% 6.0% 10.6% 0.0%
Donegal North East 17.2% 29.3% 11.0% 1.2% 35.7% 5.7%
Donegal South West 17.3% 30.0% 5.9% 1.3% 43.6% 1.8%
Dublin Central 13.7% 11.2% 23.9% 4.5% 17.0% 29.8%
Dublin Mid West 11.8% 26.2% 24.1% 9.8% 19.9% 8.2%
Dublin North 15.1% 19.1% 21.2% 15.1% 5.7% 23.8%
Dublin North Central 14.8% 32.6% 15.0% 4.4% 7.6% 25.6%
Dublin North East 12.5% 27.5% 29.4% 5.4% 25.2% 0.0%
Dublin North West 15.0% 11.6% 38.4% 2.1% 28.9% 4.0%
Dublin South 16.1% 40.4% 25.0% 10.9% 7.0% 0.6%
Dublin South Central 9.0% 14.9% 35.5% 4.0% 16.6% 19.9%
Dublin South East 10.0% 24.6% 35.6% 12.1% 9.8% 7.9%
Dublin South West 11.3% 22.0% 35.5% 2.7% 21.0% 7.5%
Dublin West 11.1% 22.9% 31.1% 2.8% 8.5% 23.7%
Dun Laoghaire 11.5% 29.5% 32.4% 6.4% 4.3% 15.8%
Galway East 14.7% 55.2% 7.2% 1.8% 7.1% 14.0%
Galway West 14.8% 30.9% 27.1% 5.5% 7.0% 14.7%
Kerry North-West Limerick 8.6% 33.6% 18.4% 1.3% 33.5% 4.7%
Kerry South 12.4% 29.1% 25.3% 1.5% 6.4% 25.2%
Kildare North 12.3% 25.2% 33.5% 3.9% 4.6% 20.6%
Kildare South 19.0% 24.6% 48.0% 5.9% 0.0% 2.5%
Laois-Offaly 25.9% 47.8% 6.7% 1.3% 14.1% 4.2%
Limerick City 19.4% 38.7% 25.3% 2.6% 10.1% 3.9%
Limerick 19.7% 63.3% 14.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Longford-Westmeath 12.7% 36.4% 41.6% 1.4% 7.2% 0.7%
Louth 14.1% 37.4% 10.3% 6.4% 30.2% 1.6%
Mayo 7.0% 58.6% 10.5% 0.6% 8.7% 14.6%
Meath East 14.6% 33.2% 24.7% 2.6% 7.9% 16.9%
Meath West 19.2% 41.0% 9.2% 2.3% 25.1% 3.1%
Roscommon-South Leitrim 12.3% 47.2% 22.8% 1.5% 16.0% 0.2%
Sligo-North Leitrim 13.7% 50.1% 8.0% 2.6% 23.6% 2.0%
Tipperary North 9.5% 16.7% 17.5% 0.8% 6.2% 49.4%
Tipperary South 7.0% 20.9% 14.1% 1.0% 4.8% 52.2%
Waterford 15.6% 34.9% 23.4% 1.8% 13.5% 10.8%
Wexford 14.1% 40.2% 28.4% 1.0% 14.8% 1.4%
Wicklow 6.1% 22.8% 26.1% 4.8% 7.7% 32.4%
STATE 14.0% 35.0% 21.0% 4.0% 14.0% 12.0%
 
And on the basis of those constituency estimates, here is how I would predict the seats to fall
 
 
 
 
 

 

 

 

(NB: predicting simply on the basis of these estimates and not taking vote transfers or the impact of a split in a party or political grouping’s votes between more than one candidate into account):

 
  FF FG LB GP SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 1 3 1      
Cavan-Monaghan 1 2     2  
Clare 1 2       1
Cork East   2 2      
Cork North Central   2 1     1
Cork North West 1 2        
Cork South Central 1 3 1      
Cork South West   2 1      
Donegal North East 1 1     1  
Donegal South West   1     2  
Dublin Central     1   1 2
Dublin Mid West   2 1   1  
Dublin North   1 1 1   1
Dublin North Central   2       1
Dublin North East   1 1   1  
Dublin North West     2   1  
Dublin South 1 3 1      
Dublin South Central   1 2   1 1
Dublin South East   1 2 1    
Dublin South West   1 2   1  
Dublin West   1 2     1
Dun Laoghaire   1 2     1
Galway East 1 3        
Galway West 1 2 1     1
Kerry North-West Limerick   1 1   1  
Kerry South   1 1     1
Kildare North   1 2     1
Kildare South   1 2      
Laois-Offaly 1 3     1  
Limerick City 1 2 1      
Limerick 1 2        
Longford-Westmeath   2 2      
Louth 2 2     1  
Mayo   4       1
Meath East   2 1      
Meath West   2     1  
Roscommon-South Leitrim   2 1      
Sligo-North Leitrim   2     1  
Tipperary North     1     2
Tipperary South   1       2
Waterford 1 2 1      
Wexford   2 2   1  
Wicklow   1 2     2
STATE 15 72 41 2 17 19

Here are the estimates of constituency level party support based on what the model would predict on the basis of the regional level poll figures:

  FF FG LB GP SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 19.5% 48.0% 19.7% 8.4% 4.4% 0.0%
Cavan-Monaghan 14.5% 28.4% 2.6% 34.8% 4.1% 15.6%
Clare 20.0% 49.9% 3.2% 10.0% 6.3% 10.6%
Cork East 13.6% 34.5% 33.0% 15.7% 2.9% 0.5%
Cork North Central 13.2% 31.9% 20.1% 19.4% 3.6% 11.8%
Cork North West 25.9% 58.7% 10.6% 0.0% 4.9% 0.0%
Cork South Central 18.9% 37.9% 17.4% 14.0% 9.8% 2.0%
Cork South West 17.1% 45.3% 17.1% 13.1% 7.4% 0.0%
Donegal North East 21.3% 22.6% 12.4% 33.4% 1.7% 8.6%
Donegal South West 22.2% 23.9% 6.9% 42.2% 1.9% 2.8%
Dublin Central 11.2% 13.9% 24.3% 14.0% 4.1% 32.5%
Dublin Mid West 9.5% 32.3% 24.2% 16.3% 8.8% 8.9%
Dublin North 12.0% 23.3% 21.2% 4.6% 13.4% 25.5%
Dublin North Central 11.3% 38.3% 14.4% 5.9% 3.8% 26.3%
Dublin North East 10.2% 34.2% 29.9% 20.8% 4.9% 0.0%
Dublin North West 12.7% 15.1% 40.7% 24.9% 2.0% 4.5%
Dublin South 12.4% 47.8% 24.2% 5.5% 9.4% 0.6%
Dublin South Central 7.3% 18.4% 35.7% 13.6% 3.6% 21.4%
Dublin South East 7.9% 29.8% 35.2% 7.9% 10.7% 8.4%
Dublin South West 9.1% 27.2% 35.9% 17.2% 2.4% 8.1%
Dublin West 8.6% 27.3% 30.2% 6.7% 2.5% 24.7%
Dun Laoghaire 8.8% 34.8% 31.2% 3.4% 5.5% 16.3%
Galway East 17.3% 46.4% 7.7% 6.3% 2.4% 19.9%
Galway West 12.8% 16.6% 21.3% 4.6% 5.6% 39.1%
Kerry North-West Limerick 9.6% 31.1% 14.8% 40.4% 1.6% 2.5%
Kerry South 16.6% 32.0% 24.3% 9.2% 2.1% 15.9%
Kildare North 12.0% 25.5% 27.2% 4.0% 2.0% 29.3%
Kildare South 20.7% 28.0% 43.9% 0.0% 3.4% 4.0%
Laois-Offaly 25.7% 49.3% 5.6% 12.7% 0.7% 6.1%
Limerick City 22.9% 37.5% 21.4% 12.7% 3.4% 2.2%
Limerick    23.2% 61.4% 12.2% 0.0% 3.2% 0.0%
Longford-Westmeath 13.6% 40.5% 37.1% 7.0% 0.8% 1.1%
Louth 14.9% 41.1% 9.1% 28.9% 3.6% 2.5%
Mayo 11.6% 60.5% 15.9% 10.9% 1.1% 0.0%
Meath East 14.2% 33.5% 20.1% 7.0% 1.4% 23.9%
Meath West 19.5% 43.5% 7.9% 23.2% 1.3% 4.6%
Roscommon-South Leitrim 16.1% 38.3% 26.2% 15.7% 2.2% 1.4%
Sligo-North Leitrim 18.2% 41.3% 9.7% 23.6% 4.0% 3.2%
Tipperary North 14.3% 20.6% 18.8% 10.0% 1.3% 35.0%
Tipperary South 10.7% 26.4% 15.5% 7.9% 1.7% 37.8%
Waterford 18.9% 34.8% 20.3% 17.5% 2.4% 6.2%
Wexford 14.8% 43.7% 24.8% 14.0% 0.6% 2.1%
Wicklow 5.6% 21.9% 20.1% 6.5% 2.4% 43.5%
STATE 14.0% 35.0% 21.0% 4.0% 14.0% 12.0%
 
And on the basis of those constituency estimates, here is how I would predict the seats to fall:
 
 
  FF FG LB GP SF OTH
Carlow-Kilkenny 1 3 1      
Cavan-Monaghan 1 1   2   1
Clare 1 3        
Cork East   2 2      
Cork North Central   2 1 1    
Cork North West 1 2        
Cork South Central 1 2 1 1    
Cork South West 1 2        
Donegal North East 1 1   1    
Donegal South West 1 1   1    
Dublin Central     1 1   2
Dublin Mid West   2 1 1    
Dublin North   1 1   1 1
Dublin North Central   2       1
Dublin North East   1 1 1    
Dublin North West     2 1    
Dublin South 1 3 1      
Dublin South Central   1 2 1   1
Dublin South East   2 2      
Dublin South West   1 2 1    
Dublin West   1 2     1
Dun Laoghaire   2 1     1
Galway East 1 2       1
Galway West 1 1 1     2
Kerry North-West Limerick   1   2    
Kerry South 1 1 1      
Kildare North   1 1     2
Kildare South   1 2      
Laois-Offaly 2 3        
Limerick City 1 2 1      
Limerick    1 2        
Longford-Westmeath   2 2      
Louth 2 2   1    
Mayo   4 1      
Meath East   1 1     1
Meath West   2   1    
Roscommon-South Leitrim   2 1      
Sligo-North Leitrim   2   1    
Tipperary North   1 1     1
Tipperary South   1       2
Waterford 1 2 1      
Wexford 1 3 1      
Wicklow   2 1     2
STATE 20 73 36 17 1 19

This poll reflects trends over past few months in which Sinn Fein and Fine Gael support has been seen to increase, Labour support has declined somewhat relative to the especially high levels the party reached in Summer/Autumn 2010, and support for Fianna Fail – after having apparently bottomed out in the low 20s in polls prior to this – has further nosedived into the teens.

On the figures, the number of Fianna Fail seats is predicted to fall between 15 and 20 seats, depending on whether the national or regional poll figures are taken account of. But these seat estimates do not take account of the impact of Fianna Fail running multiple candidates in constituencies mean that the party vote will be split and there will be some vote leakage through transfers, while at the same time the expected “transfer toxicity” of Fianna Fail in this election may see some Dail seats being lost to the party.

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20 thoughts on “Red C/Paddy Power Poll, 7th January 2011: Kenny Krusade and Doherty Drive kicks into gear?

  1. I assume this is comparable to the other recent Red C polls?

    Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll December 20: FF 17, FG 34, Lab 23, Greens 2), SF 14, Others 10

    Red C- Irish Sun Dec 2: FF 13%. Fine Gael 32%, Labour 24%, Green Party 3%, Sinn Fein 16%, Independents/Others 11%.

  2. It will be a big upset if John O’Donoghue loses his seat in South Kerry. The man believes he will be able to hold onto it but most here think he is disillusioned.

  3. Thanks again for that work Adrian – most of these figures look very accurate, but I have one or two queries after a very quick look at numbers.

    1. Donegal South-West – you give 1.8% to “others”, very far below the Thomas Pringle score in the recent by-election – around 10 per cent.

    2. The Dublin Central figure of 29.8% for others looks high to me, and you give 2 seats in this constituency to this category – one must be Maureen O’Sullivan the stting TD – I agree she will make it to the Dáil again – but what other candidate do you have in mind? Cierán Perry?

    Finally, do you have breakdown of the “others”, especially the potential score of the United Left Alliance?

  4. Adrian,

    I’ll lay a bet that Labour will not win two seats in Dublin West, irrespective of what the current stats would predict.

    Apparently, FG have been catching up on Labour in Dublin and this poll maintains that trend. Is this reflected in your number crunching? By the way, your analysis is always enjoyable as well as valuable. I guess that the closer we get to the election it may be possible to predict voting trends?

  5. After resisting for several months , I am now inclined to believe that there is some truth in these ongoing polls .
    Last week at a family funeral when a sister of mine was laid to rest, another sister of mine who always voted for him told the local Fianna Fail TD , her In-Law and good neighbour , that she is not voting Fianna Fail this time.
    I was amazed at this, naturally, and asked her if she had found some new brilliant candidate.
    ” No” , she replied steadily in the presence of her friend, neighbour and relation the Fianna Fail TD she always voted for, even canvassed for, ” I am not voting Fianna Fail. ”

    I now expect a Meltdown.

  6. The full data of this poll is posted here :

    http://www.politics.ie/current-affairs/147512-paddy-power-redc-poll-full-poll-data.html

    All the numbers indicate the size of the electoral political earthquake we are living with :

    one of the most telling findings is the answer the the question “We should have defaulted on loans rather than bring in the IMF and EU”?

    45 per cent say Yes, 28 per cent say No and 27 per cent Don’t Know – a huge disconnect here between the apparent majority view and the official positions of fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Labour Party.

    The 15 per cent score for “Others” in Dublin is primarily a left of the Labour Party vote – unsurprising really given that Joe Higgins scored 12.2 per cent in the Dublin European Parliament constituency, and a similar vote was gained by local election candidates who were also left of Labour.

  7. Again Kenny is playing a blinder – it seems to be sinking in that FG is not a one man band and that we do not need a one man government, where the Taoiseach is meant to have the answer to everything. In every actual election Kenny has lead FG into, his ratings have been way off the party ratings and yet, for all the apparent moaning that people do about him, it didn’t and isn’t stopping anyone actually voting for FG.

    Anyone who thinks FG should be at 50% or something like that, needs their head tested – the days of a two and a bit party state are over. In 1982, when we had the epic CJH v Garret and mini me Dick Spring, we also had about 5 TV stations, so of course Eric & Ernie got 20 million viewers – now we have more parties and more TV and even the X Factor can’t get 20 million viewers.

    It seems the FG/L government is still on track and I don’t think anyone wants anymore independents or small parties holding the balance of power – they want a government with a large solid majority and given the success of Kenny as FG leader, it is to be expected he will find an issue for every single government TD to get their teeth into – they shouldn’t need to have ministerial gongs to make a difference and God knows there are more than enough issues that need to be reformed that no government TD should have any spare time on their hands.

  8. I wonder will this poll finally make FF and the Greens see the light and realise the game is up and that it’s time to call the election and walk away even if their precious vanity projects have not been forced through.

    Enough is enough – and the idea that FF will have less seats than SF has a sweet irony given FF is the bast*rd child of Sinn Fein – just think all the unpleasantness of the civil war and the ‘troubles’ will have been for nothing with FF right back were it started – the clover and dagger will well and truely be wrapped around Dev’s skeleton.

  9. You have wicklow all wrong how can F G lose a seat they have a chance of 3 with the candidates they have selected

  10. Given the probable error, this poll gives essentially the same results as the Dec 20 poll. But it is confirmatory. FG is in the mid-thirties,FF in the mid-teens, Sinn Fein in the mid-teens. It also confirms that Labour which is in the low twenties has lost votes to Sinn Fein and the left. The poll also confirms that independents including United left Alliance candidates are not being squuezed by Labour and Sinn Fein
    Adrian’s constituency analysis suggests that the following United Left Alliance Candidates, at a minimum, will be elected:Joe Higgins( D West),Seamus Healy(Tipp Sth), Richard Boyd-Barret(Dun laoire), Joan Collins(D Sth Central), Mick Barry (Cork North Central), Clare Daly(Dublin North). In addition, Maureen O’ Sullivan(Dublin Central), Finian McGrath ( Dublin NC), Catherine Murphy (Kildare North) and Catherine Connolly(Galway West) who are non-Labour lefts will be elected. I expect that the number of Sinn fein and left candidates to be elected will increase after the full budget changes come into effect after January 31.
    This poll was taken before the budget changes hit peoples pockets. By Feb 1 all pay cheques and welfare cheques will have been reduced. Occupational pension cheques for those under 120,000 Euro per annum including pension cheques below the minimum wage equivalent will be reduced. Non employee incomes and pensions above 120,000 Euro p/a will have been increased. This will polarise society even further. Only then will we see the polling figures most relevant to a general election in March. I expect the Fianna Fail vote to suffer a further decrease.It is probable that the Labour bleed to Sinn Fein and the Left will resume though there may be some compensation for this as some erstwhile FF voters move to Labour.

  11. Adrian, a chara

    In the constituency results you have the SF and Green party columns mixed. I was surprised to see the Greens pulling 40% in Cav-mon :)

    Good job with all these reports

  12. Adrian – you seem to have mis-labelled and transposed the Green Party and Sinn Féin columns in the regional tables – leading naive readers to to detect a major swing to Gormley’s party, and a suprising slump in the fortunes of Gerry Adams – I do not think the Greens will gain a seat in Louth at the expense of Sinn Féin!

  13. Note that FF+FG total is now below 50%
    As a result of the drop in incomes more small shops and small businesses will close, self employed individuals will be ruined, unemployment and emigration will rise etc
    I await the post Feb 1 Poll to reflect all these matters
    FF will be in a minority among OPPOSITION in next Dail.
    What odds the following opposition seats: FF 15 Sinn Fein 21 Lefts 21? FF will lose leading opposition role at Leaders Questions!Who was it who said a few months ago that my prediction of an electoral earthquake was exaggerated?

  14. Great work again Adrian. I think the second chart is definitely what we should work off, as any distance in a poll from constituencies distorts things, so regional figures are better than national.

    I’d also echo the calls to split ULA from Others, so that we can make a better estimation of plausible government arrangements by looking at the final figures. And I also wondering who your second Other is in Wicklow.

  15. On Wicklow, I think this summary gets it all wrong. It suggests that Fine Gael will win only 22.8 per cent of the vote in the upcoming election. Yet, in 2002 Fine Gael won 23.1 per cent running two candidates. It seems inconceivable that Andrew Doyle or Billy Timmins would fail to hold their seats. More interestingly, Fine Gael also have a real chance of taking a third seat with Councillor Simon Harris, who may in fact achieve a higher share of first preferences than either of his senior running mates. So Fine Gael may well get three seats rather than two. The other interesting thing the poll throws up about Wicklow is the figure for “others”. It suggests 43.5 per cent, including the vote for Joe Behan, now running independent of Fianna Fail (and incidentally the individual who may have created the model for incumbent Fianna Fail deputies to re-style themselves as Independents in order to avoid electoral execution as part of the FF camp. Behan got 14.5 per cent of first prefs in 1997, and if one adds up the other independent votes from that election it comes to only about 24 per cent. Granted the United Left Alliance may well run a candidate capable of securing 10 per cent, but it is very difficult to see independents getting anything like 43.5 per cent.

  16. Pingback: After Seeing Latest Poll, Fianna Fáil Calls For Abolition of the Dáil « Views from the Lifeboat

  17. Pingback: Wave elections in Ireland « William Quill

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