Gilmore for…?
neilardiff.com Eoin O’Malley (12 February 2011) The polls are making the Labour party’s ‘Gilmore for Taoiseach’ campaign strategy irrelevant. In any case is it sensible for the left to enter government with a centre right party again?
Poll of polls: weighted average of party support
Eoin O’Malley (17 February, 2011) Updated with seat projections We have a tendency to see new polls and take them as indicating some real change in the fortunes of the parties since the last comparable poll was taken, when possibly much of the variation is caused by differences in samples – the luck of the draw. One…
Projections from poll findings into seats
By Michael Gallagher In essence there are two ways of trying to convert opinion poll findings regarding voting intentions into seat totals for the political parties. One, employed in the earlier post by Adrian Kavanagh (5 Feb, two posts below this one), is to assume uniform swing across the country; apply this to the party…
Red-C/Sunday Business Post poll, 6th February 2011 – seat estimates and Fianna Fail selections
Adrian Kavanagh, 5th February 2011 The Red-C poll to be published in the 6th February edition of the Sunday Business Post estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 17%, Fine Gael 35%, Labour 22%, Green Party 2%, Sinn Fein 13%, Others 11% – based on these poll figures, my constituency level analysis (as described in previous…
National polls, local polls and seat destinations
Eoin O’Malley(4th February, 2011) The national polls carried out by reputable agencies such as Red C or Ipsos-mrbi are reliable as guides of the likely percentages the parties would get if the election were held at that time. In the middle of a campaign they are even better guides of the eventual result because potential…
Red C-Paddy Power poll, 2nd February 2011: Kenny Krusading towards overall majority?
Adrian Kavanagh, 2nd February 2011 Today’s Red C-Paddy Power opinion poll estimates party support as follows: FF 18%, FG 37%, LAB 19%, GP 3%, SF 12%, OTH 11%. Based solely on these poll figures, my constituency level analysis estimates party seat levels as follows: Fianna Fail 32, Fine Gael 75, Labour 31, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 13, Others…
Irish Independent-Millward Brown (2nd Feb) and Irish Times-Ispos MRBI (3 Feb) polls
Adrian Kavanagh, 1st-2nd February 2011 The opinion poll in the 2nd February edition of the Irish Independent estimated party support as follows: FF 16%, FG 30%, LAB 24%, GP 1%, SF 13%, OTH 15%. Based solely on these poll figures, my constituency level analysis estimates party seat levels as follows: Fianna Fail 23, Fine Gael…
Seat estimates: Sunday Business Post/Red C Poll, 29th January 2011
Adrian Kavanagh, 29 January 2011 Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll January 30: FF 16 (-1), FG 33 (-1), Lab 23 (-2), Greens 2 (NC), SF 13 (-2), Others 15 (+5) On the basis of these figures, my constituency-level analysis of the poll estimates seat levels as follows: Fianna Fail 24, Fine Gael 68, Labour 40, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 14, Others 20 (including 11 “Left”-leaning Others seats)
Sunday Independent/Millward Brown Lansdowne poll, 30th January 2011: Plus ça change…
Adrian Kavanagh, 29th January 2011 A Sunday Independent/MBL poll, to be published in tomorrow’s Sunday Independent, estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 16%, Fine Gael 34%, Labour 24%, Sinn Fein 10%, Green Party 1%, Others 15%. Based on these figures, my constituency level analysis would estimate the number of seats that parties would win based…
Will Micheál Martin make a difference?
Eoin O’Malley Now that Fianna Fáil has chosen Micheál Martin as leader a week before an election campaign, can he make much of an impact at this stage? Most research suggests leaders have a marginal effect.
Irish Politics Forum 