Adrian Kavanagh, 12th February 2011 The Red-C poll to be published in the 13th February edition of the Sunday Business Post estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 15%, Fine Gael 38%, Labour 20%, Green Party 3%, Sinn Fein 10%, Others 14% – based on these poll figures, my constituency level analysis (as described in previous…
By Michael Gallagher In essence there are two ways of trying to convert opinion poll findings regarding voting intentions into seat totals for the political parties. One, employed in the earlier post by Adrian Kavanagh (5 Feb, two posts below this one), is to assume uniform swing across the country; apply this to the party…
Eoin O’Malley(4th February, 2011) The national polls carried out by reputable agencies such as Red C or Ipsos-mrbi are reliable as guides of the likely percentages the parties would get if the election were held at that time. In the middle of a campaign they are even better guides of the eventual result because potential…
Adrian Kavanagh, 29 January 2011 Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll January 30: FF 16 (-1), FG 33 (-1), Lab 23 (-2), Greens 2 (NC), SF 13 (-2), Others 15 (+5) On the basis of these figures, my constituency-level analysis of the poll estimates seat levels as follows: Fianna Fail 24, Fine Gael 68, Labour 40, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 14, Others 20 (including 11 “Left”-leaning Others seats)
By Michael Gallagher With the election now just a few months away, possibly even closer, we should have a clear idea of how the parties will line up in the 31st Dáil. Nonetheless, there is evidently still a good deal of fluidity in voting intentions. Fianna Fáil support is rather like the banks’ liabilities: every…
Adrian Kavanagh 23 September 2010 Latest Red C Poll figures, to be published in tomorrow’s (24 October) Sunday Business Post – Fianna Fail 18% (down 6%), Fine Gael 32% (up 1%), LAB 27% (up 4%), Green Party 4% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 9% (down 1%), Independents/Other small parties 10% (up 2%) On these figures, my constituency level…
Adrian Kavanagh, 15th October 2010 When electoral boundaries were being redrawn for City abd County Council electoral areas in 2008, the terms of reference set for the two electoral area committees were changed so that, apart from exceptional cases, the minimum number of seats per electoral area would now be four, and not three as…
Adrian Kavanagh, 23 September 2010 Today’s Millward-Browne Lansdowne TV3 poll offers a sobering analysis for the government parties, with Fianna Fail support estimated to stand at 22% and Green Party support at 2%. But it perhaps also offers disappointing results for two of the opposition parties; Fine Gael (30%) whose poll position as most popular…
Michael Gallagher (6th September, 2010) Concerns are raised from time to time, not just in this country, that geographical representation in parliament creates behaviour among legislators that is not consistent with the national interest. Legislators elected, under whatever electoral system, from geographical constituencies have an obvious incentive to put the interests of their constituents first…
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