Adrian Kavanagh, 2nd February 2011 Today’s Red C-Paddy Power opinion poll estimates party support as follows: FF 18%, FG 37%, LAB 19%, GP 3%, SF 12%, OTH 11%. Based solely on these poll figures, my constituency level analysis estimates party seat levels as follows: Fianna Fail 32, Fine Gael 75, Labour 31, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 13, Others…
Adrian Kavanagh, 1st-2nd February 2011 The opinion poll in the 2nd February edition of the Irish Independent estimated party support as follows: FF 16%, FG 30%, LAB 24%, GP 1%, SF 13%, OTH 15%. Based solely on these poll figures, my constituency level analysis estimates party seat levels as follows: Fianna Fail 23, Fine Gael…
Adrian Kavanagh, 29 January 2011 Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll January 30: FF 16 (-1), FG 33 (-1), Lab 23 (-2), Greens 2 (NC), SF 13 (-2), Others 15 (+5) On the basis of these figures, my constituency-level analysis of the poll estimates seat levels as follows: Fianna Fail 24, Fine Gael 68, Labour 40, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 14, Others 20 (including 11 “Left”-leaning Others seats)
Adrian Kavanagh, 29th January 2011 A Sunday Independent/MBL poll, to be published in tomorrow’s Sunday Independent, estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 16%, Fine Gael 34%, Labour 24%, Sinn Fein 10%, Green Party 1%, Others 15%. Based on these figures, my constituency level analysis would estimate the number of seats that parties would win based…
Eoin O’Malley Now that Fianna Fáil has chosen Micheál Martin as leader a week before an election campaign, can he make much of an impact at this stage? Most research suggests leaders have a marginal effect.
Eoin O’Malley (25 January 2011) Last night Fianna Fáil selected two candidates to run in the four seat Dublin Central constituency. Given that the party polled less than 13 percent of the vote in the 2009 by election, and there are no reasons to believe its vote will have increased since then, this is a…
Adrian Kavanagh, 23rd January 2011 Today’s Sunday Independent poll produced some interesting figures and were reflective no doubt of Fianna Fail and Brian Cowen’s recent travails : Fianna Fail 8%, Fine Gael 27%, Labour 29%, Sinn Fein 8%, Green Party 3%, Others 11% (doesn’t include Don’t Knows). As this poll was just based on 200 responses, it is not…
Adrian Kavanagh, 7th January 2011 Ah a New Year dawns (Happy New Year btw folks) and brings with it a new poll and some more figures to be crunched. A Red C poll carried out for Paddy Power estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 14%, Fine Gael 35%, Labour 21%, Sinn Fein 14%, Green Party…
Adrian Kavanagh, 21 December 2010 – latest updates: 30 December 2010 As an alternative perspective to the opinion poll results that have been published over the past few weeks and my constituency-level models and analysis of these, Newstalk 106-108 FM this morning presented the findings of a prediction survey that was able to draw on…
Adrian Kavanagh, 18 December 2010 Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll December 20: FF 17 (NC), FG 34 (+1), Lab 23 (-4), Greens 2 (-1), SF 14 (+3), Others 10 (+2) On the basis of these figures, my constituency-level analysis of the poll estimates seat levels as follows: Fianna Fail 27, Fine Gael 66, Labour 46, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 15, Independents 12 (including 5 United…
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