By Eoin O’Malley The latest opinion poll (analysed here) indicates that the Labour party is bearing the brunt of governing whereas Fine Gael and Enda Kenny seem to be enjoying an extended honeymoon with the electorate. This is backed up by the analysis of polcors in Ireland, one of whom reported here that Gilmore was seen as…
Adrian Kavanagh, 4th September 2011 The Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll, published on 4th September offers varying fortunes for the two government parties, amounting to very good news for Fine Gael but dismal fortunes for Labour. My constituency level analysis suggest Fine Gael would win a landslide victory based on these figures if they transpired in an…
Adrian Kavanagh, 20th and 21st July 2011 The Ispos-MRBI polls, published in the July 20th and July 21st editions of The Irish Times offers good news for Fine Gael and David Norris. My constituency level analysis suggest Fine Gael would win just enough seats to form a single party government based on these figures, while analysis…
Adrian Kavanagh, 22 June 2011 The latest edition of the Irish Independent-Millward Brown Lansdowne series of opinion polls almost mirrors last month’s Red C-Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll and offers very good news for Fine Gael whose support levels are seen to stand at 5-6% higher than the levels attained in February’s general election. Applying my constituency level…
Adrian Kavanagh, 30 May 2011 The latest edition of the Red C-Sunday Business Post-Red C series of opinion polls produce good news for both the government parties, but especially for Fine Gael whose support levels are seen to stand at over 4% higher than the levels attained in February’s general election. Applying my constituency level…
Adrian Kavanagh 14th April A new Dail and a new series of opinion polls leading up to a future general election in 2015 or 2016! As the constituency level poll analysis held up remarkably well in light of the eventual election results (and the last analysis involving the results of the Millward-Brown poll of 23…
By Jane Suiter The campaign we have just witnessed is unusual in Irish party political terms and may be one of the first where national policy has played an important part. There is little doubt when we examine movements in opinion polls over the course of the campaign that Fine Gael ran the most effective…
The Millward Brown Lansdowne opinion poll, published in the 23rd February edition of The Irish Independent estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 14%, Fine Gael 38%, Labour 20%, Green Party 1%, Sinn Fein 11%, Others 16%. Based solely on these poll figures, my uniform-swing constituency level analysis models seat estimates for the different parties/groupings as…
Guest post by Kevin Cunningham, TCD (posted by David Farrell, February 22, 2011) Background This article explains some of the problems of common polling interpretation and applies the leading solution to the general election campaign of 2011. It also offers a more accurate interpretation of trends and generates a current poll of polls as at…
Eoin O’Malley (20 February, 2011) The three most recent polls by Red-C, Millward Brown and Ipsos-mrbi in today’s Sunday Business Post and Sunday Independent and tomorrow’s Irish Times are broadly consistent and are also consistent with recent trends. Fine Gael’s position is solidifying (not surging) and Labour is slipping slightly (not falling). The Greens look unlikely to return…
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