The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (29th January 2012) shows a further dip in support (albeit not a dramatic one) for the government parties, with Sinn Fein’s continued run of good showings in recent polls culminating in the party earning its higghest ever rating in a Red C poll, leaving it at 17%, ahead of Labour and just one percent behind Fianna Fail, whose ratings remain static following a increase in support levels in the December poll. Read the rest of this entry »
Country gone mad changing party preferences? Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (29th January 2012)
January 29, 2012
5 Comments | 
opinion polls | Tagged: constituencies, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, independents, Labour Party, opinion poll, Sinn Fein | 
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Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Fine Gael-Fianna Fail grand coalition the only option?: Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (18th December 2011)
December 18, 2011The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (18th December 2011) points to a more than signficant dip in support for the government parties following the budger, with a notable recovery for Fianna Fail building on a strong showing in the Dublin West by-election and Sinn Fein occupying second place in the party rankings. With support levels and projected seat numbers roughly similar for both the government alliance and the most likely alternative government and both somewhat off the level required to ensure a majority in the Dail – party seat levels would be estimated as follows: Fine Gael 61, Labour 13, Fianna Fail 36, Sinn Fein 33, Green Party 2, Others 21 - the likelihood of a hung Dail would be very strong based on these figures unless Fine Gael and Fianna Fail were willing to enter a coalition government. But the main thing to emerge from this poll is what seemed to be unthinkable only a few months ago – the possibility that Fianna Fail will be in government again after the next general election. Read the rest of this entry »
25 Comments | opinion polls | Tagged: constituencies, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Green Party, independents, Labour Party, opinion poll, Sinn Fein | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
State of Enda? Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (4th December 2011)
December 4, 2011The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (4th December 2011) shows a dip in support (albeit not a dramatic one) for the government parties, with a notable recovery for Fianna Fail building on a strong showing in the Dublin West by-election (and probably also related to Sean Gallagher’s strong campaign for the presidential election). Read the rest of this entry »
4 Comments | opinion polls | Tagged: constituencies, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, independents, Labour Party, opinion poll, Sinn Fein | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Taxi for Fianna Fail? Sunday Independent-Millward Brown Lansdowne poll 18th September 2011
September 18, 2011The Sunday Independent-Millward Brown Lansdowne poll offers a somewhat different picture of the political landscape to the Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes poll of 4th September. While it continues the trend of strong poll showings by Fine Gael, this poll sees Labour’s standings back at the levels enjoyed by the party earlier in the year and marks a stark contrast to the 12% support level for that party in the Sunday Times poll. The most dramatic figure however is the exceptionally low 10% rating for Fianna Fail, meaning that if support levels for all parties and groupings were exactly replicated in a general election contest that Fianna Fail would just about have enough TDs left to fill a taxi. Read the rest of this entry »
5 Comments | Election, opinion polls, Uncategorized | Tagged: constituencies, opinion poll | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Early September polls: Presidential election victory for Higgins and potential for a Fine Gael landslide?
September 4, 2011Adrian Kavanagh, 4th September 2011
The Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll, published on 4th September offers varying fortunes for the two government parties, amounting to very good news for Fine Gael but dismal fortunes for Labour. My constituency level analysis suggest Fine Gael would win a landslide victory based on these figures if they transpired in an election and would easily win enough seats to form a single party government, with many of their seat gains to be at the expense of their coalition partners, although Labour would also be predicted to lose seats to Sinn Fein. Better news is offered to Labour by the Red C-Paddy Power presidential election poll however, with my analysis suggesting that Michael D Higgins would win the election based on these figures, edging out Gay Mitchell on the final count by a margin of almost two hundred thousand votes.
7 Comments | Election, opinion polls, The Presidency | Tagged: Election 2011, Fine Gael, Labour Party, opinion poll, opinion polls, Sinn Fein | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Analysis of Ispos-MRBI polls, July 2011 – good news for Fine Gael and Norris
July 20, 2011Adrian Kavanagh, 20th and 21st July 2011
The Ispos-MRBI polls, published in the July 20th and July 21st editions of The Irish Times offers good news for Fine Gael and David Norris. My constituency level analysis suggest Fine Gael would win just enough seats to form a single party government based on these figures, while analysis of the presidential election poll figures suggests a win for Norris, who would be predicted to win the election, finishing over 90,000 votes ahead of Gay Mitchell on the final count. Read the rest of this entry »
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Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Constituency-level analysis of June 22nd Irish Independent/Millward Brown Lansdowne opinion poll
June 22, 2011Adrian Kavanagh, 22 June 2011
The latest edition of the Irish Independent-Millward Brown Lansdowne series of opinion polls almost mirrors last month’s Red C-Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll and offers very good news for Fine Gael whose support levels are seen to stand at 5-6% higher than the levels attained in February’s general election. Applying my constituency level analysis to these figures, seat estimates based on the simulated constituency support estimates suggest that Fine Gael would win a more than sufficient number of seats to form a majority single-party government if these figures were to be replicated in an election held today.
The opinion poll figures estimates the party support as follows: Fine Gael 42%, Labour 19%, Fianna Fail 16%, Sinn Fein 11%, Green Party 1% (not included in Red C poll), Others 13%. Based solely on assigning seats on the basis of the constituency support estimates (simply using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats), party seat levels would be estimated as follows: Fine Gael 90, Labour 32, Fianna Fail 19, Sinn Fein 11, Green Party 0, Others 14. When the factors of vote transfers and vote splitting/management (based on vote transfer/management patterns oberved in the February 2011 election) are accounted for and constituency marginality levels at the February 2011 election taken account of, the party seat levels would more than likely be as follows: Fine Gael 85, Labour 36, Fianna Fail 16, Sinn Fein 16, Green Party 0, Others 13.
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Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Seat estimates for Irish Independent-Millward Brown Lansdowne and Paddy Power-Red C opinion polls, 23rd February
February 22, 2011The Millward Brown Lansdowne opinion poll, published in the 23rd February edition of The Irish Independent estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 14%, Fine Gael 38%, Labour 20%, Green Party 1%, Sinn Fein 11%, Others 16%. Based solely on these poll figures, my uniform-swing constituency level analysis models seat estimates for the different parties/groupings as follows: Fianna Fail 17, Fine Gael 78, Labour 37, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 14, Others 20 (11 Left-leaning (including 6 ULA), 9 Right-leaning).
The Red C poll for Paddy Power (23rd February) estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 15%, Fine Gael 40%, Labour 18%, Green Party 3%, Sinn Fein 10%, Others 14%. Based solely on these poll figures, my uniform-swing constituency level analysis models seat estimates for the different parties/groupings as follows: Fianna Fail 21, Fine Gael 80, Labour 34, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 13, Others 18 (11 Left-leaning (including 6 ULA), 7 Right-leaning). Read the rest of this entry »
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Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Irish Independent/Millward Brown poll, 16th February: Kenny Krusades on and the unlucky thirteen…
February 15, 2011Adrian Kavanagh, 15th February 2011
The Millward-Brown opinion poll, published in the 16th February edition of The Irish Independent estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 12%, Fine Gael 38%, Labour 23%, Green Party 3%, Sinn Fein 10%, Others 16%. Based solely on these poll figures, my uniform-swing constituency level analysis models seat estimates for the different parties/groupings as follows: Fianna Fail 13, Fine Gael 78, Labour 42, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 13, Others 20.
(Update: 17th February Daily Star poll: Fianna Fail 17%, Fine Gael 39%, Labour 18%, Green Party 2%, Sinn Fein 10%, Others 14% - seat estimates based on these figures: Fianna Fail 31, Fine Gael 77, Labour 31, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 8, Others 18. Two points to note here: there is a level of support in mid-teens that Fianna Fail must not fall beyound otherwise their losses will accelerate, Fine Gael’s prospects of edging towards the magic 83-seat number decrease when Fianna Fail poll ratings improve.) Read the rest of this entry »
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Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Red C/Sunday Business Post poll 13th February: How close can Kenny go?
February 12, 2011Adrian Kavanagh, 12th February 2011
The Red-C poll to be published in the 13th February edition of the Sunday Business Post estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 15%, Fine Gael 38%, Labour 20%, Green Party 3%, Sinn Fein 10%, Others 14% - based on these poll figures, my constituency level analysis (as described in previous posts) estimates seat levels for the parties as follows: Fianna Fail 20, Fine Gael 76, Labour 38, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 12, Others 20 (including 6 United Left Alliance candidates – overall 11 “Left” leaning Others/9 “Right” leaning Others). Read the rest of this entry »
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Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Editors
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Jennifer Kavanagh
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