Constituency-level analyses of national opinion polls carried out during 2013: A review.

Adrian Kavanagh, 31st December 2013 During the past year (2013), I carried out constituency-level analyses of thirty four different national opinion polls in order to produce Dail-seat estimates based on those support levels. These analyses involved thirteen Red C (Sunday Business Post-Red C and Paddy Power-Red C) polls, twelve Sunday Independent-Millward Browne polls, four Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI polls and five Sunday…

Autumnal Shifts? A constituency-level analysis of the early Autumn opinion polls

Adrian Kavanagh, 14th September 2013 The most recent Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll (13th October) brought some relatively disappointing news for the government parties, with both losing a percentage point relatively to the previous such poll of 29th September, with the most significant trend being a three percentage points gain by the Independents and Others political grouping. The latest…

Back to the Future?: Good news for Fianna Fail and bad news for government parties in the Spring 2013 opinion polls

Adrian Kavanagh, 27th January/8th February/16 February/23 February/2 March/16 March 2013 A series of recent Irish-Ipsos MRBI, and Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes polls, in addition to two Sunday Business Post-Red C polls (polls on 27th January and 24th February) and three Sunday Independent-Millward Brown polls (17th February, 3rd March and 17th March) have offered grim reading for the two government parties and…