Adrian Kavanagh, 19 May 2013 

Opinion polls in the first half of 2013 have all pointed towards significant gains in Fianna Fail support levels, albeit to varying degrees, leaving Fianna Fail at its highest support level in opinion polls since the IMF-EU bailout in November 2010 and with some of these positioning it as the most popular party in the state ahead of Fine Gael. The latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll (19th May 2013) continues in this vein, putting national support levels for the main political parties/groupings as follows: Fine Gael 23% (down 1%), Labour 12% (NC), Fianna Fail 26% (down 1%), Sinn Fein 19% (up 3%), Independents and Others 18% (NC), Green Party 2% (down 1%) Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 23rd March 2013 – updated 30th March, 13th April, 27th April

Recent opinion polls have all pointed towards significant gains in Fianna Fail support levels, albeit to varying degrees, leaving Fianna Fail at its highest support level in opinion polls since the IMF-EU bailout in November 2010 and with some of these positioning it as the most popular party in the state ahead of Fine Gael.  The polls in late March and April did point towards a plateauing of the Fianna Fail surge, however, marking some good news for the government parties, though perhaps not Labour. The latest poll, the Red C-Sunday Business Post poll (28th April) puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings, and relative to the previous Red C-Sunday Business Post poll (24th February 2013), as follows: Fine Gael 28% (NC), Fianna Fail 25% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 16% (up 2%), Labour 11% (down 2%), Green Party, Independents and Others 20% (down 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fine Gael 57, Fianna Fail 43, Sinn Fein 22, Labour 13, Green Party, Independents and Others 22. Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 27th January/8th February/16 February/23 February/2 March/16 March 2013

A series of recent Irish-Ipsos MRBI, and Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes polls, in addition to two Sunday Business Post-Red C polls (polls on 27th January and 24th February) and three Sunday Independent-Millward Brown polls (17th February, 3rd March and 17th March) have offered grim reading for the two government parties and very good news for the opposition parties and groupings, but  especially Fianna Fail who ironically found themselves leading in a national opinion poll (in the two of the Millward-Brown polld and in the Ipsos-MRBI poll) for the first time since the bank bailout in 2008. The latest of these polls detects a notable swing from the larger parties (including Fianna Fail) towards the independents and small parties, however.

The latest poll, the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll (17th March 2013) puts national support levels for the main political parties/groupings as follows: Fine Gael 25% (up 1%), Labour 9% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 29% (up 6%), Sinn Fein 20% (down 1%), Independents, Socialist Party, Green Party, United Left Alliance and Others 17% (down 5%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 56, Fine Gael 44, Sinn Fein 28, Independents, Green Party, Socialist Party, United Left Alliance and Others 20, Labour 10. Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 10th January 2013 

Today’s Paddy Power-Red C poll is the first major poll of the 2013 calendar year and the first such one since the Budget in December. As with the December 2nd Sunday Business Post-Red C poll, it does not make for pleasant reading for Fine Gael, with the party support levels down three percentage points on the previous such Paddy Power-Red C poll in May 2012.  This poll puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings, and relative to the most recent Sunday Business Post-Red C poll of May 17th 2012, as follows: Fine Gael 29% (down 3%), Labour 13% (NC), Fianna Fail 21% (up 3%), Sinn Fein 16% (down 4%), Green Party 3%/Independents, United Left Alliance and Others 18% (combined levels up 4%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fine Gael 56, Labour 18, Fianna Fail 37, Sinn Fein 23, Green Party 1, United Left Alliance 4, Independents and Others 19. 

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Adrian Kavanagh, 1st December 2012 

Tomorrow’s Sunday Business Post-Red C poll offers grim reading for Fine Gael, with the party support levels down six percentage points on the previous such poll.  This poll puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings, and relative to the most recent Sunday Business Post-Red C poll on 28th October 2012, as follows: Fine Gael 28% (down 6%), Labour 14% (up 1%), Fianna Fail 20% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 17% (NC), Green Party 3% (up 1%), Independents, United Left Alliance and Others 18% (up 3%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fine Gael 53, Labour 21, Fianna Fail 36, Sinn Fein 25, Green Party 1, United Left Alliance 4, Independents and Others 19. 

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Adrian Kavanagh, 18th October 2012 – updates on 19th November 2012 

A number of recent opinion polls all point towards gains in Fianna Fail support levels, albeit to varying degrees, leaving Fianna Fail at its highest support level in opinion polls since the IMF-EU bailout in November 2010 and positioned as the second most popular party in the state after Fine Gael.  The Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings, and relative to the most recent Ipsos-MRBI poll in April 2012, as follows: Fine Gael 31% (down 1%), Labour 12% (up 2%), Fianna Fail 21% (up 4%), Sinn Fein 20% (down 4%), Green Party 2% (NC), Independents and Others 14% (down 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fine Gael 63, Labour 17, Fianna Fail 37, Sinn Fein 25, Green Party 0, Independents and Others 16. The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (28th October) puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings, and relative to the most recent such poll on 24th September 2012, as follows: Fine Gael 34% (up 2%),  Labour 13% (down 1%), Fianna Fail 19% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 17% (down 1%), Green Party 2% (NC), United Left Alliance, Independents and Others 15% (NC).  My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fine Gael 72, Labour 19, Fianna Fail 33, Sinn Fein 17, Green Party 0, United Left Alliance 3, Independents and Others 16. The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll of 18th November 2012 puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings, and relative to the most recent such poll on 9th September 2012, as follows: Fine Gael 30% (down 1%),  Labour 12% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 22% (up 6%), Sinn Fein 14% (down 4%), Green Party 3% (up 1%), United Left Alliance, Independents and Others 19% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fine Gael 62, Labour 17, Fianna Fail 38, Sinn Fein 19, Green Party 2, United Left Alliance 4, Independents and Others 16.

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Adrian Kavanagh, 22nd September 2012

The first Sunday Business Post-Red C (23rd September) poll following the summer recess points towards a gain in Sinn Fein support and a slight decline in support levels for Labour and the Independents and Others grouping.  The poll puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings as follows: Fine Gael 32% (NC), Labour 14% (down 1%), Fianna Fail 18% (NC), Sinn Fein 18% (up 2%), Green Party, Independents and Others 18% (down 1%). This analysis is similar to previous posts which have applied a constituency level analysis (although with these using the constituency units used for the 2011 General Election) based on assigning seats on the basis of constituency support estimates and simply using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats, while also taking account of the factors of vote transfers and vote splitting/management (based on vote transfer/management patterns observed in the February 2011 election). Based on such an analysis and using the new constituency units (as defined in the 2012 Constituency Commission report) - the new constituencies which will be used for the next general election (assuming an election is not called in the following months before the Electoral Act putting the new constituency configuration into effect) – this estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fine Gael 66, Labour 20, Fianna Fail 27, Sinn Fein 22, Green Party, Independents and Others 23.  Continue reading →

Adrian Kavanagh, 25th June 2012

The Sunday Business Post-Red C (24th June) poll notes a recovery in support levels for Fine Gael, with Sinn Fein support levels falling relative to the party’s high level in the 26th May poll.  The poll puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings as follows: Fine Gael 32% (+2%), Labour 15% (NC), Fianna Fail 16% (NC), Sinn Fein 16% (down 3%), Green Party, Independents and Others 19% (up 1%). In line with previous posts which have applied a constituency level analysis - using the constiuency units used in the 2011 General Election - based on assigning seats on the basis of constituency support estimates (simply using a d’Hond Continue reading →