The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (29th January 2012) shows a further dip in support (albeit not a dramatic one) for the government parties, with Sinn Fein’s continued run of good showings in recent polls culminating in the party earning its higghest ever rating in a Red C poll, leaving it at 17%, ahead of Labour and just one percent behind Fianna Fail, whose ratings remain static following a increase in support levels in the December poll. Read the rest of this entry »
Country gone mad changing party preferences? Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (29th January 2012)
January 29, 2012
5 Comments | 
opinion polls | Tagged: constituencies, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, independents, Labour Party, opinion poll, Sinn Fein | 
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Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Fine Gael-Fianna Fail grand coalition the only option?: Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (18th December 2011)
December 18, 2011The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (18th December 2011) points to a more than signficant dip in support for the government parties following the budger, with a notable recovery for Fianna Fail building on a strong showing in the Dublin West by-election and Sinn Fein occupying second place in the party rankings. With support levels and projected seat numbers roughly similar for both the government alliance and the most likely alternative government and both somewhat off the level required to ensure a majority in the Dail – party seat levels would be estimated as follows: Fine Gael 61, Labour 13, Fianna Fail 36, Sinn Fein 33, Green Party 2, Others 21 - the likelihood of a hung Dail would be very strong based on these figures unless Fine Gael and Fianna Fail were willing to enter a coalition government. But the main thing to emerge from this poll is what seemed to be unthinkable only a few months ago – the possibility that Fianna Fail will be in government again after the next general election. Read the rest of this entry »
25 Comments | opinion polls | Tagged: constituencies, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Green Party, independents, Labour Party, opinion poll, Sinn Fein | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
State of Enda? Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (4th December 2011)
December 4, 2011The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (4th December 2011) shows a dip in support (albeit not a dramatic one) for the government parties, with a notable recovery for Fianna Fail building on a strong showing in the Dublin West by-election (and probably also related to Sean Gallagher’s strong campaign for the presidential election). Read the rest of this entry »
4 Comments | opinion polls | Tagged: constituencies, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, independents, Labour Party, opinion poll, Sinn Fein | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Gallagher poll lead widens in weekend polls while Sinn Fein and Independents gain in terms of party support
October 25, 2011Adrian Kavanagh, 25th October 2011
The final series of opinion polls at the weekend saw Sean Gallagher maintain, and even widen somewhat, the lead he established over Michael D. Higgins and the other candidates in the previous weekend’s Sunday Business Post-Red C poll, although the sheer momentum he had built up over the previous few weeks has abated somewhat. Read the rest of this entry »
4 Comments | Election, opinion polls, The Presidency | Tagged: by-elections, constituencies, geography of support, opinion polls, Sinn Fein | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
“I’m in!” – Gallagher campaign gathers momentum and Sinn Fein support surging in latest series of opinion polls
October 6, 2011Adrian Kavanagh, 6th-9th October 2011
The two presidential election polls and the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI and Sunday Times-Behaviour and Attitudes polls on party support intentions offers interesting trends. Sean Gallagher has emerged as the surprise package in the presidential election polls and poses a more serious threat to Michael D. Higgins than that which Martin McGuinness and David Norris were posing in last week’s Red C poll. While the gamble of the McGuinness candidature may not be translating into a likely win for Sinn Fein, it could be argued that the gamble is paying off in terms of the huge increase in support registered for the party in the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI and Sunday Times-Behaviour and Attitudes poll, propelling the party past Labour and Fianna Fail into second place. Based on the Ipsos MRBI figures the party will need to take further support off Labour if Sinn Fein is to overtake Labour as the party with the second largest number of seats in Dail Eireann, but the poll figures in the Sunday Times-Behaviour and Attitudes poll suggests that Sinn Fein would exactly do that. Read the rest of this entry »
9 Comments | Election, opinion polls, The Presidency | Tagged: by-elections, constituencies, geography of support, opinion polls, Sinn Fein | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Red C-Sunday Business Post polls (25th September): Transfer patterns suggest Higgins to win with Davis as main challenger
September 25, 2011Adrian Kavanagh, Sunday 25th September 2011
The main message coming from the two Red C-Sunday Business Post opinion polls, published on 25th September, is that vote transfers would see Michael D Higgins win the presidency despite trailing David Norris in terms of first preference votes. In all, the polls offer mixed messages for the government parties, some cold comfort for Fianna Fáil in the wake of the previous week’s disastrous Millward Brown Lansdowne poll figures for that party, and very good news for Sinn Féin and the Others grouping. Transfer figures provided with the presidential election poll suggest that, in order to go on to win the contest, Davis Norris would need to almost ten percent ahead of Michael D Higgins on the first count, while Martin McGuinness would need to be eight percent ahead. Read the rest of this entry »
3 Comments | Election, opinion polls, The Presidency | Tagged: constituencies, opinion polls, Sinn Fein | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Early September polls: Presidential election victory for Higgins and potential for a Fine Gael landslide?
September 4, 2011Adrian Kavanagh, 4th September 2011
The Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll, published on 4th September offers varying fortunes for the two government parties, amounting to very good news for Fine Gael but dismal fortunes for Labour. My constituency level analysis suggest Fine Gael would win a landslide victory based on these figures if they transpired in an election and would easily win enough seats to form a single party government, with many of their seat gains to be at the expense of their coalition partners, although Labour would also be predicted to lose seats to Sinn Fein. Better news is offered to Labour by the Red C-Paddy Power presidential election poll however, with my analysis suggesting that Michael D Higgins would win the election based on these figures, edging out Gay Mitchell on the final count by a margin of almost two hundred thousand votes.
7 Comments | Election, opinion polls, The Presidency | Tagged: Election 2011, Fine Gael, Labour Party, opinion poll, opinion polls, Sinn Fein | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
What next for Labour and the Irish party system?
February 28, 2011
Eoin O’Malley (28 February, 2011)
Although the election was a seismic event in the redevelopment of the Irish party system, the decisions made in the next week as to the structure of the government will have a greater long term impact. The decision Labour has to take as to whether to go into government or not seems to have already been taken if we consider the noises made by senior Labour members at the weekend. But if the party were considering more than getting bums on seats in ministerial mercs (or the share of a Prius) then it should pause for thought. Read the rest of this entry »
27 Comments | New party politics, Politics | Tagged: Election 2011, Election 2015, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Labour, Sinn Fein, ULA | Permalink
Posted by Eoin O'Malley
Projections from poll findings into seats
February 7, 2011By Michael Gallagher
In essence there are two ways of trying to convert opinion poll findings regarding voting intentions into seat totals for the political parties. One, employed in the earlier post by Adrian Kavanagh (5 Feb, two posts below this one), is to assume uniform swing across the country; apply this to the party vote shares across each of the 43 constituencies to arrive at new predicted vote shares in each if them; make inferences about what this vote distribution within each constituency would mean for the allocation of seats there; then add up the constituency totals to produce an overall national result. Read the rest of this entry »
Leave a Comment » | New party politics, opinion polls, Politics | Tagged: constituencies, Election 2011, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, General election, Labour, opinion polls, Sinn Fein | Permalink
Posted by Michael Gallagher
Red C/Paddy Power Poll, 7th January 2011: Kenny Krusade and Doherty Drive kicks into gear?
January 7, 2011Adrian Kavanagh, 7th January 2011
Ah a New Year dawns (Happy New Year btw folks) and brings with it a new poll and some more figures to be crunched. A Red C poll carried out for Paddy Power estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 14%, Fine Gael 35%, Labour 21%, Sinn Fein 14%, Green Party 4%, Others 12%. Based on these figures, my constituency level analysis would estimate the number of seats that parties would win based on these levels of national support to be as follows: Fianna Fail 15, Fine Gael 72, Labour 41, Sinn Fein 17, Green Party 2, Others 19
The poll results were also produced in regional breakdown terms, with the following figures presented for the different provinces/regions: Leinster: Fianna Fail 15%, Fine Gael 37%, Labour 21%, Sinn Fein 11%, Green Party 2%, Others 14% ; Connacht-Ulster: Fianna Fail 16%, Fine Gael 35%, Labour 13%, Sinn Fein 20%, Green Party 3%, Others 13% ; Munster: Fianna Fail 17%, Fine Gael 38%, Labour 18%, Sinn Fein 14%, Green Party 4%, Others 9% ; Dublin: Fianna Fail 10%, Fine Gael 29%, Labour 29%, Sinn Fein 11%, Green Party 6%, Others 15%. Based on these regional-level poll figures, my constituency level analysis would estimate the number of seats (nationally) that parties would win based on these levels of regional support to be as follows: Fianna Fail 20, Fine Gael 73, Labour 36, Sinn Fein 17, Green Party 1, Others 19
Read the rest of this entry »
20 Comments | Election, opinion polls | Tagged: "transfer toxicity", Election 2011, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Green Party, independents, Labour Party, opinion polls, Sinn Fein, United Left Alliance | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Editors
Matthew Wall
ElaineByrne
Jane Suiter
Liam Weeks
Séin Ó Muineacháin
David Farrell
Eoin O'Malley
Gary Murphy
Michael Gallagher
Theresa Reidy
Adrian Kavanagh
Jennifer Kavanagh
Claire McGing
psaigenderpoliticssg
Ken McDonagh
johnobrennan
