Irish Polling Indicator: Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil gaining

IPI_Percentages

The largest government party, Fine Gael, and the largest opposition party, Fianna Fáil, have both seen their electoral prospects improve over the last months, according to the Irish Polling Indicator. Fine Gael has recovered from a 22% low early December 2014 and now polls around 27%. Micheál Martin’s party also found the way up, increasing about 2% since late March. At 21% the party is finally improving on the consistently poor level of polling it had seen in the last year. Continue reading

Irish Polling Indicator: Government parties bounce back a bit

IPI_Longitudinal

Irish Polling Indicator (2012-now) showing estimates of party support with a 95% uncertainty interval

The first quarter of 2015 has seen a moderate bounce in the polls for the government coalition parties. Fine Gael was at a 22% low in December, now finds itself at 25%. Labour rose from 6% to 8% in the same time. This pattern emerges from the Irish Polling Indicator, which combines all national election polls to one estimate of the parties’ standing in the polls.

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Love’s Labour Not Entirely Lost?: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (17th August 2014)

Adrian Kavanagh, 16th August 2014 

The latest in the series of Behaviour & Attitudes polls has brought good news for the Labour Party after a long period of dismal results in previous such opinion polls. The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll of August 16th 2014, estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll): Fine Gael 24% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 19% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 18% (down 1%), Labour Party 14% (up 7%), Green Party 2% (NC), Independents and Others 20% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 31, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 28, Labour Party 21, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 31. Continue reading

“When the hurly-burly’s done…”: Constituency-level analyses of the post-election polls

Adrian Kavanagh, 12th June 2014 (with subsequent updates)

The local and European elections brought a (probably quite welcome!) respite to the spate of opinion polls that had appeared in the run up to the May 23rd electoral contests, but June 12th saw the publication of one of the first post-elections opinion polls – the Paddy Power-Red C poll of June 12th 2014, which estimates party support levels as follows: Fine Gael 22%, Sinn Fein 22%, Fianna Fail 18%, Labour Party 4%, Green Party 2%, Independents and Others 32%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 32, Fine Gael 40, Sinn Fein 37, Labour 0, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 48. This was preceded by the Irish Independent-Millward Brown poll of June 7th 2014, which estimates party support levels as follows: Sinn Fein 26%, Fine Gael 20%, Fianna Fail 20%, Labour Party 5%, Green Party 2%, Independents and Others 27%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 36, Fine Gael 38, Sinn Fein 43, Labour 0, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 40. The latest in the series of Red C polls, the Sunday Business Post-Red C poll of June 29th 2014, estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 25% (NC), Sinn Fein 22% (up 4%), Fianna Fail 18% (down 3%), Labour Party 7% (down 4%), Independents, Green Party and Others 28% (up 3%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 33, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 34, Labour 1, Independents, Green Party and Others 44.  The latest in the series of Millward-Brown polls, the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll of August 3rd 2014, estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 25%, Sinn Fein 25%, Fianna Fail 20%, Labour Party 7%, Green Party 1%, Independents and Others 23%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 35, Fine Gael 47, Sinn Fein 42, Labour 2, Green Party 0, Independents and Others 28Continue reading

Pooling Irish Opinion Polls: Introducing the Irish Polling Indicator

Posted by Tom Louwerse, Trinity College DublinImage

Note: the last Red C poll does not provide separate estimates for the Green Party and Others, therefore the OTH and GP line end in April.

Opinion polls are a source of information for voters, parties and the media alike. Especially polls into the popularity of parties are usually quite popular. Polls can be a powerful instrument: if done well, a sample of just 1000 voters can give great insights into the (political) views of the entire Irish electorate. But polls are often misunderstood and incorrectly reported. A new tool brings together all Irish opinion polls and aggregates them into one estimate of the support for Irish parties.

The ‘Poll of polls’ has become popular in many countries over the last few years. Besides the popular electoral forecasts by Continue reading

The Pre-Election Polls: Constitiuency-level analyses of the late April and May opinions polls

Adrian Kavanagh, first posted 28th April 2014, with later updates

A series of opinion polls published in the weeks leading up to the May 23rd Local and European elections brought further bad news for the government parties, while offering very positive messages for the Independents and Others grouping and for Sinn Fein in the lead up to the May 23rd local and European elections. The RTE poll of polls (21st May 2014) estimated party support levels (across the most recent opinion polls) as follows: Fine Gael 24%, Fianna Fail 22%, Sinn Fein 22%, Labour Party 7%, Independents, Green Party and Others 26%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 38,, Fine Gael 45, Sinn Fein 32, Labour 2, Independents, Green Party and Others 41The Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll (20th May 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll on 4th April): Fine Gael 23% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 23% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 19% (down 2%), Labour Party 7% (down 1%), Independents, Green Party and Others 28% (up 7%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 41, Fine Gael 44, Sinn Fein 26, Labour 2, Independents, Green Party and Others 45. The Irish Independent-Millward Brown poll (19th May 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll): Fine Gael 21% (down 4%), Fianna Fail 20% (down 3%), Sinn Fein 23% (up 2%), Labour Party 6% (NC), Green Party 2% (NC), Independents and Others 27% (up 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 36, Fine Gael 41, Sinn Fein 37, Labour 0, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 43. The Irish Sun-Red C poll (19th May 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll): Fine Gael 25% (NC), Fianna Fail 20% (down 1%), Sinn Fein 20% (up 2%), Labour Party 8% (down 3%), Green Party 2% (NC), Independents and Others 24% (up 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 37, Fine Gael 47, Sinn Fein 28, Labour 7, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 38. The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (18th May 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll) – although this asked about voting intentions at the upcoming local elections and not a general election per se – : Fine Gael 25% (up 4%), Fianna Fail 22% (up 2%), Sinn Fein 17% (down 3%), Labour Party 9% (NC), Green Party 4% (up 1%), Independents and Others 26% (up 5%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 37, Fine Gael 51, Sinn Fein 25, Labour 3, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 41.

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March in like a lion but not out like a lamb for the larger parties: Analyses of March and early April opinions polls

Adrian Kavanagh, 1st March 2014

March had come in like a lion for the three largest parties in the state but definitely did not go out like a lamb. The latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll saw Fianna Fail, Labour and Fine Gael all losing significant levels of support relative to the previous such poll while Sinn Fein and the Independents and Others grouping made gains at the expense of these parties. The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll, taken some weeks later, produced a largely similar result, although support levels for Fianna Fail and the Independents and Others grouping did largely remain static in this. Continue reading