“When the hurly-burly’s done…”: Constituency-level analyses of the post-election polls

Adrian Kavanagh, 12th June 2014 (with subsequent updates)

The local and European elections brought a (probably quite welcome!) respite to the spate of opinion polls that had appeared in the run up to the May 23rd electoral contests, but June 12th saw the publication of one of the first post-elections opinion polls – the Paddy Power-Red C poll of June 12th 2014, which estimates party support levels as follows: Fine Gael 22%, Sinn Fein 22%, Fianna Fail 18%, Labour Party 4%, Green Party 2%, Independents and Others 32%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 32, Fine Gael 40, Sinn Fein 37, Labour 0, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 48. This was preceded by the Irish Independent-Millward Brown poll of June 7th 2014, which estimates party support levels as follows: Sinn Fein 26%, Fine Gael 20%, Fianna Fail 20%, Labour Party 5%, Green Party 2%, Independents and Others 27%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 36, Fine Gael 38, Sinn Fein 43, Labour 0, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 40. The latest in the series of Red C polls, the Sunday Business Post-Red C poll of June 29th 2014, estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 25% (NC), Sinn Fein 22% (up 4%), Fianna Fail 18% (down 3%), Labour Party 7% (down 4%), Independents, Green Party and Others 28% (up 3%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 33, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 34, Labour 1, Independents, Green Party and Others 44.  The latest in the series of Millward-Brown polls, the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll of August 3rd 2014, estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 25%, Sinn Fein 25%, Fianna Fail 20%, Labour Party 7%, Green Party 1%, Independents and Others 23%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 35, Fine Gael 47, Sinn Fein 42, Labour 2, Green Party 0, Independents and Others 28Continue reading

The Pre-Election Polls: Constitiuency-level analyses of the late April and May opinions polls

Adrian Kavanagh, first posted 28th April 2014, with later updates

A series of opinion polls published in the weeks leading up to the May 23rd Local and European elections brought further bad news for the government parties, while offering very positive messages for the Independents and Others grouping and for Sinn Fein in the lead up to the May 23rd local and European elections. The RTE poll of polls (21st May 2014) estimated party support levels (across the most recent opinion polls) as follows: Fine Gael 24%, Fianna Fail 22%, Sinn Fein 22%, Labour Party 7%, Independents, Green Party and Others 26%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 38,, Fine Gael 45, Sinn Fein 32, Labour 2, Independents, Green Party and Others 41The Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll (20th May 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll on 4th April): Fine Gael 23% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 23% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 19% (down 2%), Labour Party 7% (down 1%), Independents, Green Party and Others 28% (up 7%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 41, Fine Gael 44, Sinn Fein 26, Labour 2, Independents, Green Party and Others 45. The Irish Independent-Millward Brown poll (19th May 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll): Fine Gael 21% (down 4%), Fianna Fail 20% (down 3%), Sinn Fein 23% (up 2%), Labour Party 6% (NC), Green Party 2% (NC), Independents and Others 27% (up 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 36, Fine Gael 41, Sinn Fein 37, Labour 0, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 43. The Irish Sun-Red C poll (19th May 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll): Fine Gael 25% (NC), Fianna Fail 20% (down 1%), Sinn Fein 20% (up 2%), Labour Party 8% (down 3%), Green Party 2% (NC), Independents and Others 24% (up 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 37, Fine Gael 47, Sinn Fein 28, Labour 7, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 38. The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (18th May 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll) – although this asked about voting intentions at the upcoming local elections and not a general election per se – : Fine Gael 25% (up 4%), Fianna Fail 22% (up 2%), Sinn Fein 17% (down 3%), Labour Party 9% (NC), Green Party 4% (up 1%), Independents and Others 26% (up 5%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 37, Fine Gael 51, Sinn Fein 25, Labour 3, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 41.

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March in like a lion but not out like a lamb for the larger parties: Analyses of March and early April opinions polls

Adrian Kavanagh, 1st March 2014

March had come in like a lion for the three largest parties in the state but definitely did not go out like a lamb. The latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll saw Fianna Fail, Labour and Fine Gael all losing significant levels of support relative to the previous such poll while Sinn Fein and the Independents and Others grouping made gains at the expense of these parties. The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll, taken some weeks later, produced a largely similar result, although support levels for Fianna Fail and the Independents and Others grouping did largely remain static in this. Continue reading

Constituency-level analyses of national opinion polls carried out during 2013: A review.

Adrian Kavanagh, 31st December 2013

During the past year (2013), I carried out constituency-level analyses of thirty four different national opinion polls in order to produce Dail-seat estimates based on those support levels. These analyses involved thirteen Red C (Sunday Business Post-Red C and Paddy Power-Red C) polls, twelve Sunday Independent-Millward Browne polls, four Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI polls and five Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes polls. Averaging the different Dail seat-level estimates for the different political parties and political groupings across these polls produces the following estimate: Fianna Fail 46, Fine Gael 52, Labour Party 11, Sinn Fein 25, Independents and Others 24. But notably different seat-estimates were produced depending on the time of year that these polls were held in, but especially depending on what polling companies were involved in the carrying out of these different polls, as will be illustrated below.

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Autumnal Shifts? A constituency-level analysis of the early Autumn opinion polls

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Adrian Kavanagh, 14th September 2013

The most recent Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll (13th October) brought some relatively disappointing news for the government parties, with both losing a percentage point relatively to the previous such poll of 29th September, with the most significant trend being a three percentage points gain by the Independents and Others political grouping. The latest Millward Brown poll estimates party support levels as: Fine Gael 27% (down 1%), Fianna Fail 27% (NC), Sinn Fein 19% (NC), Labour 9% (down 1%), Green Party 1% (NC), Independents and Others 17% (up 3%).  My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, if these national support trends were replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 51, Fine Gael 50, Sinn Fein 25, Labour 8, Green Party 0, Independents and Others 24Continue reading

So what for Silly Season politics? Looking at the August opinion polls

The month of August saw the latest poll from the Red C series of opinion polls as well as two new Sunday Independent-Millward Brown polls, with these continuing the trends observed in polls during 2013, in which Fianna Fail and Fine Gael support hovers around the mid 20s mark (with Fianna Fail faring decidedly better in the Millward Brown polls), Sinn Fein support hovers around the mid-to-high teens (and occasionally into the low twenties) and Labour support hovers just above or just below the ten percent mark (with Labour support tending to be higher in the Red C polls). The Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll (1st September 2013) puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings at (and relative to the  previous Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll), as follows: Fine Gael 27% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 25% (down 3%), Sinn Fein 21% (up 3%), Labour 8% (NC), Green Party, Independents and Others 18% (up 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 45, Fine Gael 56, Sinn Fein 34, Labour 3, Green Party, Independents and Others 20. Continue reading

Mixed news for government parties in late June/early July opinion polls

The general trend in opinion polls over the last few months has been one that strongly indicated an improvement in Fianna Fail support levels and fortunes, mainly at the expense of the government parties. The latest poll from the Sunday Business Post-Red C series of opinion polls went against this trend however, pointing towards improved support levels for the two government parties as against a drop in support levels for Fianna Fail, but the latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll, by contrast, pointed to a continuation of this trend of improved Fianna Fail fortunes and declining support for the government parties, but especially Labour. The Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll (7th July 2013) puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings at (and relative to the  previous Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll), as follows: Fine Gael 26% (down 1%), Fianna Fail 29% (up 2%), Sinn Fein 19% (up 2%), Labour 8% (down 3%), Green Party, Independents and Others 19% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 55, Fine Gael 48, Sinn Fein 27, Labour 4, Green Party, Independents and Others 24. The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (30th June 2013) puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings at (and relative to the  previous Sunday Business-Red C poll), as follows: Fine Gael 27% (down 3%), Fianna Fail 24% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 16% (up 1%), Labour 7% (NC), Green Party 3% (up 1%), Independents and Others 23% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fine Gael 57, Fianna Fail 47, Sinn Fein 23, Labour 2, Green Party 3, Independents and Others 26.  The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (30th June 2013) puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings at (and relative to the  previous Sunday Business-Red C poll), as follows: Fine Gael 28% (up 2%), Fianna Fail 22% (down 4%), Sinn Fein 17% (up 1%), Labour 12% (up 1%), Green Party, Independents and Others 21% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fine Gael 56, Fianna Fail 39, Sinn Fein 24, Labour 15, Green Party, Independents and Others 24. Continue reading