Love’s Labour Not Entirely Lost?: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (17th August 2014)

Adrian Kavanagh, 16th August 2014 

The latest in the series of Behaviour & Attitudes polls has brought good news for the Labour Party after a long period of dismal results in previous such opinion polls. The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll of August 16th 2014, estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll): Fine Gael 24% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 19% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 18% (down 1%), Labour Party 14% (up 7%), Green Party 2% (NC), Independents and Others 20% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 31, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 28, Labour Party 21, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 31. Continue reading

“When the hurly-burly’s done…”: Constituency-level analyses of the post-election polls

Adrian Kavanagh, 12th June 2014 (with subsequent updates)

The local and European elections brought a (probably quite welcome!) respite to the spate of opinion polls that had appeared in the run up to the May 23rd electoral contests, but June 12th saw the publication of one of the first post-elections opinion polls – the Paddy Power-Red C poll of June 12th 2014, which estimates party support levels as follows: Fine Gael 22%, Sinn Fein 22%, Fianna Fail 18%, Labour Party 4%, Green Party 2%, Independents and Others 32%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 32, Fine Gael 40, Sinn Fein 37, Labour 0, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 48. This was preceded by the Irish Independent-Millward Brown poll of June 7th 2014, which estimates party support levels as follows: Sinn Fein 26%, Fine Gael 20%, Fianna Fail 20%, Labour Party 5%, Green Party 2%, Independents and Others 27%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 36, Fine Gael 38, Sinn Fein 43, Labour 0, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 40. The latest in the series of Red C polls, the Sunday Business Post-Red C poll of June 29th 2014, estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 25% (NC), Sinn Fein 22% (up 4%), Fianna Fail 18% (down 3%), Labour Party 7% (down 4%), Independents, Green Party and Others 28% (up 3%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 33, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 34, Labour 1, Independents, Green Party and Others 44.  The latest in the series of Millward-Brown polls, the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll of August 3rd 2014, estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 25%, Sinn Fein 25%, Fianna Fail 20%, Labour Party 7%, Green Party 1%, Independents and Others 23%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 35, Fine Gael 47, Sinn Fein 42, Labour 2, Green Party 0, Independents and Others 28Continue reading

The Pre-Election Polls: Constitiuency-level analyses of the late April and May opinions polls

Adrian Kavanagh, first posted 28th April 2014, with later updates

A series of opinion polls published in the weeks leading up to the May 23rd Local and European elections brought further bad news for the government parties, while offering very positive messages for the Independents and Others grouping and for Sinn Fein in the lead up to the May 23rd local and European elections. The RTE poll of polls (21st May 2014) estimated party support levels (across the most recent opinion polls) as follows: Fine Gael 24%, Fianna Fail 22%, Sinn Fein 22%, Labour Party 7%, Independents, Green Party and Others 26%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 38,, Fine Gael 45, Sinn Fein 32, Labour 2, Independents, Green Party and Others 41The Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll (20th May 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll on 4th April): Fine Gael 23% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 23% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 19% (down 2%), Labour Party 7% (down 1%), Independents, Green Party and Others 28% (up 7%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 41, Fine Gael 44, Sinn Fein 26, Labour 2, Independents, Green Party and Others 45. The Irish Independent-Millward Brown poll (19th May 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll): Fine Gael 21% (down 4%), Fianna Fail 20% (down 3%), Sinn Fein 23% (up 2%), Labour Party 6% (NC), Green Party 2% (NC), Independents and Others 27% (up 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 36, Fine Gael 41, Sinn Fein 37, Labour 0, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 43. The Irish Sun-Red C poll (19th May 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll): Fine Gael 25% (NC), Fianna Fail 20% (down 1%), Sinn Fein 20% (up 2%), Labour Party 8% (down 3%), Green Party 2% (NC), Independents and Others 24% (up 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 37, Fine Gael 47, Sinn Fein 28, Labour 7, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 38. The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (18th May 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll) – although this asked about voting intentions at the upcoming local elections and not a general election per se – : Fine Gael 25% (up 4%), Fianna Fail 22% (up 2%), Sinn Fein 17% (down 3%), Labour Party 9% (NC), Green Party 4% (up 1%), Independents and Others 26% (up 5%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 37, Fine Gael 51, Sinn Fein 25, Labour 3, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 41.

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March in like a lion but not out like a lamb for the larger parties: Analyses of March and early April opinions polls

Adrian Kavanagh, 1st March 2014

March had come in like a lion for the three largest parties in the state but definitely did not go out like a lamb. The latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll saw Fianna Fail, Labour and Fine Gael all losing significant levels of support relative to the previous such poll while Sinn Fein and the Independents and Others grouping made gains at the expense of these parties. The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll, taken some weeks later, produced a largely similar result, although support levels for Fianna Fail and the Independents and Others grouping did largely remain static in this. Continue reading

Fine Gael-Fianna Fail grand coalition the only option?: Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (18th December 2011)

The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (18th December 2011) points to a more than signficant dip in support for the government parties following the budger, with a notable recovery for Fianna Fail building on a strong showing in the Dublin West by-election and Sinn Fein occupying second place in the party rankings. With support levels and projected seat numbers roughly similar for both the government alliance and the most likely alternative government and both somewhat off the level required to ensure a majority in the Dail – party seat levels would be estimated as follows: Fine Gael 61, Labour 13, Fianna Fail 36, Sinn Fein 33, Green Party 2, Others 21 - the likelihood of a hung Dail would be very strong based on these figures unless Fine Gael and Fianna Fail were willing to enter a coalition government. But the main thing to emerge from this poll is what seemed to be unthinkable only a few months ago – the possibility that Fianna Fail will be in government again after the next general election. Continue reading

Red C/Paddy Power Poll, 7th January 2011: Kenny Krusade and Doherty Drive kicks into gear?

Adrian Kavanagh, 7th January 2011

Ah a New Year dawns (Happy New Year btw folks) and brings with it a new poll and some more figures to be crunched. A Red C poll carried out for Paddy Power estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 14%, Fine Gael 35%, Labour 21%, Sinn Fein 14%, Green Party 4%, Others 12%. Based on these figures, my constituency level analysis would estimate the number of seats that parties would win based on these levels of national support to be as follows: Fianna Fail 15, Fine Gael 72, Labour 41, Sinn Fein 17, Green Party 2, Others 19

The poll results were also produced in regional breakdown terms, with the following figures presented for the different provinces/regions:  Leinster: Fianna Fail 15%, Fine Gael 37%, Labour 21%, Sinn Fein 11%, Green Party 2%, Others 14% ; Connacht-Ulster: Fianna Fail 16%, Fine Gael 35%, Labour 13%, Sinn Fein 20%, Green Party 3%, Others 13% ; Munster: Fianna Fail 17%, Fine Gael 38%, Labour 18%, Sinn Fein 14%, Green Party 4%, Others 9% ; Dublin: Fianna Fail 10%, Fine Gael 29%, Labour 29%, Sinn Fein 11%, Green Party 6%, Others 15%. Based on these regional-level poll figures, my constituency level analysis would estimate the number of seats (nationally) that parties would win based on these levels of regional support to be as follows: Fianna Fail 20, Fine Gael 73, Labour 36, Sinn Fein 17, Green Party 1, Others 19 Continue reading

Newstalk “General Election 2011″ prediction survey: A Commentary

Adrian Kavanagh, 21 December 2010 – latest updates: 30 December 2010

As an alternative perspective to the opinion poll results that have been published over the past few weeks and my constituency-level models and analysis of these, Newstalk 106-108 FM this  morning presented the findings of a prediction survey that was able to draw on the local knowledge that the poll figures and my poll analyses cannot tap in to. This survey involved asking personnel in local independent radios across the state to make their predictions as to how they saw the seats falling in their own local constituencies at the upcoming general election in Spring 2011. While this obviously is drawing on the subjective views of a number of different local commentators, it does have the advantage of offering a locally grounded perspective to complement the figures emerging out of recent opinion poll analyses. The findings are very interesting and intuitively seem to tally up better with how the general election results may pan out than has been suggested by the more recent opinion polls and the analyses of these. This survey was carried out a few weeks ago, so figures for Sinn Fein could be viewed as being under-estimated in the light of recent poll trends.

Based on this Newstalk survey, the number of seats to be won by each party at the next general election is predicted as follows: Fianna Fail 43, Fine Gael 63, Labour Party 40, Sinn Fein 6, Green Party 2, Independents and Others 12. Continue reading