The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (18th December 2011) points to a more than signficant dip in support for the government parties following the budger, with a notable recovery for Fianna Fail building on a strong showing in the Dublin West by-election and Sinn Fein occupying second place in the party rankings. With support levels and projected seat numbers roughly similar for both the government alliance and the most likely alternative government and both somewhat off the level required to ensure a majority in the Dail – party seat levels would be estimated as follows: Fine Gael 61, Labour 13, Fianna Fail 36, Sinn Fein 33, Green Party 2, Others 21 - the likelihood of a hung Dail would be very strong based on these figures unless Fine Gael and Fianna Fail were willing to enter a coalition government. But the main thing to emerge from this poll is what seemed to be unthinkable only a few months ago – the possibility that Fianna Fail will be in government again after the next general election. Continue reading
Adrian Kavanagh, 7th January 2011
Ah a New Year dawns (Happy New Year btw folks) and brings with it a new poll and some more figures to be crunched. A Red C poll carried out for Paddy Power estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 14%, Fine Gael 35%, Labour 21%, Sinn Fein 14%, Green Party 4%, Others 12%. Based on these figures, my constituency level analysis would estimate the number of seats that parties would win based on these levels of national support to be as follows: Fianna Fail 15, Fine Gael 72, Labour 41, Sinn Fein 17, Green Party 2, Others 19
The poll results were also produced in regional breakdown terms, with the following figures presented for the different provinces/regions: Leinster: Fianna Fail 15%, Fine Gael 37%, Labour 21%, Sinn Fein 11%, Green Party 2%, Others 14% ; Connacht-Ulster: Fianna Fail 16%, Fine Gael 35%, Labour 13%, Sinn Fein 20%, Green Party 3%, Others 13% ; Munster: Fianna Fail 17%, Fine Gael 38%, Labour 18%, Sinn Fein 14%, Green Party 4%, Others 9% ; Dublin: Fianna Fail 10%, Fine Gael 29%, Labour 29%, Sinn Fein 11%, Green Party 6%, Others 15%. Based on these regional-level poll figures, my constituency level analysis would estimate the number of seats (nationally) that parties would win based on these levels of regional support to be as follows: Fianna Fail 20, Fine Gael 73, Labour 36, Sinn Fein 17, Green Party 1, Others 19 Continue reading
Adrian Kavanagh, 21 December 2010 – latest updates: 30 December 2010
As an alternative perspective to the opinion poll results that have been published over the past few weeks and my constituency-level models and analysis of these, Newstalk 106-108 FM this morning presented the findings of a prediction survey that was able to draw on the local knowledge that the poll figures and my poll analyses cannot tap in to. This survey involved asking personnel in local independent radios across the state to make their predictions as to how they saw the seats falling in their own local constituencies at the upcoming general election in Spring 2011. While this obviously is drawing on the subjective views of a number of different local commentators, it does have the advantage of offering a locally grounded perspective to complement the figures emerging out of recent opinion poll analyses. The findings are very interesting and intuitively seem to tally up better with how the general election results may pan out than has been suggested by the more recent opinion polls and the analyses of these. This survey was carried out a few weeks ago, so figures for Sinn Fein could be viewed as being under-estimated in the light of recent poll trends.
Based on this Newstalk survey, the number of seats to be won by each party at the next general election is predicted as follows: Fianna Fail 43, Fine Gael 63, Labour Party 40, Sinn Fein 6, Green Party 2, Independents and Others 12. Continue reading
Adrian Kavanagh, 18 December 2010
Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll December 20: FF 17 (NC), FG 34 (+1), Lab 23 (-4), Greens 2 (-1), SF 14 (+3), Others 10 (+2)
On the basis of these figures, my constituency-level analysis of the poll estimates seat levels as follows: Fianna Fail 27, Fine Gael 66, Labour 46, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 15, Independents 12 (including 5 United Left Alliance seats) Continue reading
Adrian Kavanagh, 15 December 2010
Irish Times Ipsos-MRBI opinion poll December 16: FF 17 (-7), FG 30 (+6), Lab 25 (-8), Greens 2 (NC), SF 15 (+7), Others 11 (+2)
On the basis of these figures, my constituency-level analysis of the poll estimates seat levels as follows: Fianna Fail 26, Fine Gael 58, Labour 46, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 18, Others 18 (including 6 United Left Alliance/4 other Left wing candidates). Continue reading
The decision of the Greens to call for the election to take place, confirms what most already expected, that an election will take place in early 2011. That Lowry and Healy-Rae are jumping also ensures the government is effectively over. But when will the election actually take place? The Green statement is unclear. It was being reported by RTÉ and the Irish Times might take place in late January, but they have since amended this. I assume the Greens mean that the date for the election will be fixed in January to take place at some as yet unspecified later date.
So the date of the election remains unclear. Continue reading
Adrian Kavanagh, 21st November 2010
The latest Sunday Business Post/Red C poll figures estimate party support as follows: Fianna Fail 17%, Fine Gael 33%, Labour Party 27%, Sinn Fein 11%, Green Party 3%, Independents/Others 8%, marking a 1% gain for Fine Gael and a 1% loss for Fianna Fail relative to the October 24th poll while Labour support levels remain static. The main gain is made by Sinn Fein, whose support levels increase by 2%. On the basis of these poll figures, my analysis would estimate party seat numbers in the next Dail as follows: Fianna Fail 29, Fine Gael 66, Labour Party 49, Sinn Fein 12, Green Party 0, Independents/Others 10.
Now it seems the reshuffle might throw up another novelty; that the Green leader could stand down from cabinet and allow Ciarán Cuffe take his place. While this may seem admirable in that no minister gets too comfortable (except Éamon Ryan) it would have to shorten the odds on an election this year. Continue reading