March in like a lion but not out like a lamb for the larger parties: Analyses of March and April opinions polls

Adrian Kavanagh, 1st March 2014

The latest polls, published on Easter Sunday, brought further bad news for the government parties, while offering very positive messages for the Independents and Others grouping and for Sinn Fein in the lead up to the May 23rd local and European elections.  The Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll (20th April 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll): Fine Gael 29% (up 2%), Sinn Fein 20% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 22% (up 1%), Labour Party 6% (down 2%), Green Party 2% (NC), Independents and Others 21% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 37, Fine Gael 56, Sinn Fein 30, Labour 0, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 33.  The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (20th April 2014) estimated party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such poll): Fine Gael 21% (down 9%), Sinn Fein 20% (up 2%), Fianna Fail 20% (up 1%), Labour Party 9% (NC), Green Party 4% (up 1%), Independents and Others 26% (up 5%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 35, Fine Gael 40, Sinn Fein 32, Labour 8, Green Party 3, Independents and Others 40Continue reading

Constituency-level analyses of national opinion polls carried out during 2013: A review.

Adrian Kavanagh, 1st January 2014

During the past year (2013), I carried out constituency-level analyses of thirty four different national opinion polls in order to produce Dail-seat estimates based on those support levels. These analyses involved thirteen Red C (Sunday Business Post-Red C and Paddy Power-Red C) polls, twelve Sunday Independent-Millward Browne polls, four Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI polls and five Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes polls. Averaging the different Dail seat-level estimates for the different political parties and political groupings across these polls produces the following estimate: Fianna Fail 46, Fine Gael 52, Labour Party 11, Sinn Fein 25, Independents and Others 24. But notably different seat-estimates were produced depending on the time of year that these polls were held in, but especially depending on what polling companies were involved in the carrying out of these different polls, as will be illustrated below.  Continue reading

Autumnal Shifts? A constituency-level analysis of the early Autumn opinion polls

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Adrian Kavanagh, 14th September 2013

The most recent Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll (13th October) brought some relatively disappointing news for the government parties, with both losing a percentage point relatively to the previous such poll of 29th September, with the most significant trend being a three percentage points gain by the Independents and Others political grouping. The latest Millward Brown poll estimates party support levels as: Fine Gael 27% (down 1%), Fianna Fail 27% (NC), Sinn Fein 19% (NC), Labour 9% (down 1%), Green Party 1% (NC), Independents and Others 17% (up 3%).  My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, if these national support trends were replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 51, Fine Gael 50, Sinn Fein 25, Labour 8, Green Party 0, Independents and Others 24Continue reading

So what for Silly Season politics? Looking at the August opinion polls

The month of August saw the latest poll from the Red C series of opinion polls as well as two new Sunday Independent-Millward Brown polls, with these continuing the trends observed in polls during 2013, in which Fianna Fail and Fine Gael support hovers around the mid 20s mark (with Fianna Fail faring decidedly better in the Millward Brown polls), Sinn Fein support hovers around the mid-to-high teens (and occasionally into the low twenties) and Labour support hovers just above or just below the ten percent mark (with Labour support tending to be higher in the Red C polls). The Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll (1st September 2013) puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings at (and relative to the  previous Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll), as follows: Fine Gael 27% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 25% (down 3%), Sinn Fein 21% (up 3%), Labour 8% (NC), Green Party, Independents and Others 18% (up 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 45, Fine Gael 56, Sinn Fein 34, Labour 3, Green Party, Independents and Others 20. Continue reading

Can Lucinda Creighton be denied the right to run as a Fine Gael candidate in the next election?

lucinda-creighton-4-390x285It now seems a forgone conclusion that Lucinda Creighton will vote against the Fine Gael party whip in the vote on the abortion bill later today or tomorrow. Many of the commentaries on this suggest that this will jeopardize her political career: she will lose her junior ministerial position as Minister for Europe; she will lose her membership of the parliamentary party; and Enda Kenny has made clear that she, like the other rebels, will not be allowed to run as a candidate for Fine Gael in the next election. But is this last threat really true? Continue reading

Mixed news for government parties in late June/early July opinion polls

The general trend in opinion polls over the last few months has been one that strongly indicated an improvement in Fianna Fail support levels and fortunes, mainly at the expense of the government parties. The latest poll from the Sunday Business Post-Red C series of opinion polls went against this trend however, pointing towards improved support levels for the two government parties as against a drop in support levels for Fianna Fail, but the latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll, by contrast, pointed to a continuation of this trend of improved Fianna Fail fortunes and declining support for the government parties, but especially Labour. The Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll (7th July 2013) puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings at (and relative to the  previous Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll), as follows: Fine Gael 26% (down 1%), Fianna Fail 29% (up 2%), Sinn Fein 19% (up 2%), Labour 8% (down 3%), Green Party, Independents and Others 19% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 55, Fine Gael 48, Sinn Fein 27, Labour 4, Green Party, Independents and Others 24. The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (30th June 2013) puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings at (and relative to the  previous Sunday Business-Red C poll), as follows: Fine Gael 27% (down 3%), Fianna Fail 24% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 16% (up 1%), Labour 7% (NC), Green Party 3% (up 1%), Independents and Others 23% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fine Gael 57, Fianna Fail 47, Sinn Fein 23, Labour 2, Green Party 3, Independents and Others 26.  The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (30th June 2013) puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings at (and relative to the  previous Sunday Business-Red C poll), as follows: Fine Gael 28% (up 2%), Fianna Fail 22% (down 4%), Sinn Fein 17% (up 1%), Labour 12% (up 1%), Green Party, Independents and Others 21% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fine Gael 56, Fianna Fail 39, Sinn Fein 24, Labour 15, Green Party, Independents and Others 24. Continue reading

Some good news for Fine Gael, Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein in latest Ispos-MRBI and Red C opinion polls, but not for Labour

pollAdrian Kavanagh, 13th June 2013

Opinion polls in the first part of 2013 all pointed towards significant gains in Fianna Fail support levels, leaving the party at its highest support level in opinion polls since the IMF-EU bailout in November 2010, with some of the polls rating Fianna Fail as the most popular party in the state ahead of Fine Gael.  While Fianna Fail and Fine Gael support levels have been seen to be relatively similar in recent polls, the latest poll, the Paddy Power-Red C poll (13th June) points to notable gains for Fine Gael, with this polls leaving Fine Gael Continue reading

Fianna Fail/Sinn Fein coalition government by 2016? May/June opinion polls from Millward Brown and Red C

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Adrian Kavanagh, 19 May 2013 

Opinion polls in the first half of 2013 have all pointed towards significant gains in Fianna Fail support levels, albeit to varying degrees, leaving Fianna Fail at its highest support level in opinion polls since the IMF-EU bailout in November 2010 and with some of these positioning it as the most popular party in the state ahead of Fine Gael. The latest Sunday Independent-Millward Brown polls (19th May and 2nd June 2013) and Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (26th May 2013) continue in this vein. The June 2nd Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll puts national support levels for the main political parties/groupings as follows: Fine Gael 27% (up 4%), Labour 11% (down 1%), Fianna Fail 27% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 17% (down 2%), Independents and Others 18% (NC). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 51, Fine Gael 49, Independents and Others 23, Sinn Fein 22,  Labour 13.

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Fianna Fail’s long march forward halted…for now? Late March/April polls

Adrian Kavanagh, 23rd March 2013 – updated 30th March, 13th April, 27th April

Recent opinion polls have all pointed towards significant gains in Fianna Fail support levels, albeit to varying degrees, leaving Fianna Fail at its highest support level in opinion polls since the IMF-EU bailout in November 2010 and with some of these positioning it as the most popular party in the state ahead of Fine Gael.  The polls in late March and April did point towards a plateauing of the Fianna Fail surge, however, marking some good news for the government parties, though perhaps not Labour. The latest poll, the Red C-Sunday Business Post poll (28th April) puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings, and relative to the previous Red C-Sunday Business Post poll (24th February 2013), as follows: Fine Gael 28% (NC), Fianna Fail 25% (up 1%), Sinn Fein 16% (up 2%), Labour 11% (down 2%), Green Party, Independents and Others 20% (down 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fine Gael 57, Fianna Fail 43, Sinn Fein 22, Labour 13, Green Party, Independents and Others 22. Continue reading

Back to the Future?: Good news for Fianna Fail and bad news for government parties in the Spring 2013 opinion polls

Adrian Kavanagh, 27th January/8th February/16 February/23 February/2 March/16 March 2013

A series of recent Irish-Ipsos MRBI, and Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes polls, in addition to two Sunday Business Post-Red C polls (polls on 27th January and 24th February) and three Sunday Independent-Millward Brown polls (17th February, 3rd March and 17th March) have offered grim reading for the two government parties and very good news for the opposition parties and groupings, but  especially Fianna Fail who ironically found themselves leading in a national opinion poll (in the two of the Millward-Brown polld and in the Ipsos-MRBI poll) for the first time since the bank bailout in 2008. The latest of these polls detects a notable swing from the larger parties (including Fianna Fail) towards the independents and small parties, however.

The latest poll, the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll (17th March 2013) puts national support levels for the main political parties/groupings as follows: Fine Gael 25% (up 1%), Labour 9% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 29% (up 6%), Sinn Fein 20% (down 1%), Independents, Socialist Party, Green Party, United Left Alliance and Others 17% (down 5%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 56, Fine Gael 44, Sinn Fein 28, Independents, Green Party, Socialist Party, United Left Alliance and Others 20, Labour 10. Continue reading