The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (29th January 2012) shows a further dip in support (albeit not a dramatic one) for the government parties, with Sinn Fein’s continued run of good showings in recent polls culminating in the party earning its higghest ever rating in a Red C poll, leaving it at 17%, ahead of Labour and just one percent behind Fianna Fail, whose ratings remain static following a increase in support levels in the December poll. Read the rest of this entry »
Country gone mad changing party preferences? Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (29th January 2012)
January 29, 2012
5 Comments | 
opinion polls | Tagged: constituencies, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, independents, Labour Party, opinion poll, Sinn Fein | 
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Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Fine Gael-Fianna Fail grand coalition the only option?: Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (18th December 2011)
December 18, 2011The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (18th December 2011) points to a more than signficant dip in support for the government parties following the budger, with a notable recovery for Fianna Fail building on a strong showing in the Dublin West by-election and Sinn Fein occupying second place in the party rankings. With support levels and projected seat numbers roughly similar for both the government alliance and the most likely alternative government and both somewhat off the level required to ensure a majority in the Dail – party seat levels would be estimated as follows: Fine Gael 61, Labour 13, Fianna Fail 36, Sinn Fein 33, Green Party 2, Others 21 - the likelihood of a hung Dail would be very strong based on these figures unless Fine Gael and Fianna Fail were willing to enter a coalition government. But the main thing to emerge from this poll is what seemed to be unthinkable only a few months ago – the possibility that Fianna Fail will be in government again after the next general election. Read the rest of this entry »
25 Comments | opinion polls | Tagged: constituencies, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Green Party, independents, Labour Party, opinion poll, Sinn Fein | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
State of Enda? Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (4th December 2011)
December 4, 2011The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (4th December 2011) shows a dip in support (albeit not a dramatic one) for the government parties, with a notable recovery for Fianna Fail building on a strong showing in the Dublin West by-election (and probably also related to Sean Gallagher’s strong campaign for the presidential election). Read the rest of this entry »
4 Comments | opinion polls | Tagged: constituencies, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, independents, Labour Party, opinion poll, Sinn Fein | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Do smaller parties always lose in government?
September 6, 2011By Eoin O’Malley
The latest opinion poll (analysed here) indicates that the Labour party is bearing the brunt of governing whereas Fine Gael and Enda Kenny seem to be enjoying an extended honeymoon with the electorate. This is backed up by the analysis of polcors in Ireland, one of whom reported here that Gilmore was seen as ‘dithering’ and ineffectual in cabinet. reports of Kenny’s performance in cabinet are that he is effective and fair – surprising many. So do small parties always do badly in government, and if so why?
5 Comments | opinion polls, Politics | Tagged: Eamon Gilmore, Enda Kenny, Fine Gael, Labour, small parties | Permalink
Posted by Eoin O'Malley
Early September polls: Presidential election victory for Higgins and potential for a Fine Gael landslide?
September 4, 2011Adrian Kavanagh, 4th September 2011
The Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll, published on 4th September offers varying fortunes for the two government parties, amounting to very good news for Fine Gael but dismal fortunes for Labour. My constituency level analysis suggest Fine Gael would win a landslide victory based on these figures if they transpired in an election and would easily win enough seats to form a single party government, with many of their seat gains to be at the expense of their coalition partners, although Labour would also be predicted to lose seats to Sinn Fein. Better news is offered to Labour by the Red C-Paddy Power presidential election poll however, with my analysis suggesting that Michael D Higgins would win the election based on these figures, edging out Gay Mitchell on the final count by a margin of almost two hundred thousand votes.
7 Comments | Election, opinion polls, The Presidency | Tagged: Election 2011, Fine Gael, Labour Party, opinion poll, opinion polls, Sinn Fein | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
What next for Labour and the Irish party system?
February 28, 2011
Eoin O’Malley (28 February, 2011)
Although the election was a seismic event in the redevelopment of the Irish party system, the decisions made in the next week as to the structure of the government will have a greater long term impact. The decision Labour has to take as to whether to go into government or not seems to have already been taken if we consider the noises made by senior Labour members at the weekend. But if the party were considering more than getting bums on seats in ministerial mercs (or the share of a Prius) then it should pause for thought. Read the rest of this entry »
27 Comments | New party politics, Politics | Tagged: Election 2011, Election 2015, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Labour, Sinn Fein, ULA | Permalink
Posted by Eoin O'Malley
Seat estimates for Irish Independent-Millward Brown Lansdowne and Paddy Power-Red C opinion polls, 23rd February
February 22, 2011The Millward Brown Lansdowne opinion poll, published in the 23rd February edition of The Irish Independent estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 14%, Fine Gael 38%, Labour 20%, Green Party 1%, Sinn Fein 11%, Others 16%. Based solely on these poll figures, my uniform-swing constituency level analysis models seat estimates for the different parties/groupings as follows: Fianna Fail 17, Fine Gael 78, Labour 37, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 14, Others 20 (11 Left-leaning (including 6 ULA), 9 Right-leaning).
The Red C poll for Paddy Power (23rd February) estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 15%, Fine Gael 40%, Labour 18%, Green Party 3%, Sinn Fein 10%, Others 14%. Based solely on these poll figures, my uniform-swing constituency level analysis models seat estimates for the different parties/groupings as follows: Fianna Fail 21, Fine Gael 80, Labour 34, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 13, Others 18 (11 Left-leaning (including 6 ULA), 7 Right-leaning). Read the rest of this entry »
16 Comments | opinion polls, Politics | Tagged: "Doherty Drive", "Gilmore Gale", "Kenny Krusade", "Martin-mo", "Noonan-Nudge", Election 2011, Fine Gael, opinion poll | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
What’s gone wrong for Labour?
February 16, 2011Eoin O’Malley (15 February, 2011)
There’s is some degree of agreement in the opinion polls of all types (different companies, candidate based ballot paper questions and party questions, local polls and national polls) that over the course of the campaign Fine Gael has trended upwards and Labour downwards. As we can see from the Red C first preference vote trends, which is the only properly comparable trend of polls, that where Labour was within touching distance of Fine Gael in October and November (Millward Brown had Labour ahead of Fine Gael in September, but its estimates for Labour are usually above the Red C ones for some reason) since then Fine Gael has pulled away. The closeness of the race last autumn, with Kenny’s unpopularity, presumably gave rise to the ‘Gilmore for Taoiseach’ strategy. Read the rest of this entry »
22 Comments | Election, New party politics, opinion polls | Tagged: Election 2011, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Labour Party | Permalink
Posted by Eoin O'Malley
Projections from poll findings into seats
February 7, 2011By Michael Gallagher
In essence there are two ways of trying to convert opinion poll findings regarding voting intentions into seat totals for the political parties. One, employed in the earlier post by Adrian Kavanagh (5 Feb, two posts below this one), is to assume uniform swing across the country; apply this to the party vote shares across each of the 43 constituencies to arrive at new predicted vote shares in each if them; make inferences about what this vote distribution within each constituency would mean for the allocation of seats there; then add up the constituency totals to produce an overall national result. Read the rest of this entry »
Leave a Comment » | New party politics, opinion polls, Politics | Tagged: constituencies, Election 2011, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, General election, Labour, opinion polls, Sinn Fein | Permalink
Posted by Michael Gallagher
Red C/Paddy Power Poll, 7th January 2011: Kenny Krusade and Doherty Drive kicks into gear?
January 7, 2011Adrian Kavanagh, 7th January 2011
Ah a New Year dawns (Happy New Year btw folks) and brings with it a new poll and some more figures to be crunched. A Red C poll carried out for Paddy Power estimates party support as follows: Fianna Fail 14%, Fine Gael 35%, Labour 21%, Sinn Fein 14%, Green Party 4%, Others 12%. Based on these figures, my constituency level analysis would estimate the number of seats that parties would win based on these levels of national support to be as follows: Fianna Fail 15, Fine Gael 72, Labour 41, Sinn Fein 17, Green Party 2, Others 19
The poll results were also produced in regional breakdown terms, with the following figures presented for the different provinces/regions: Leinster: Fianna Fail 15%, Fine Gael 37%, Labour 21%, Sinn Fein 11%, Green Party 2%, Others 14% ; Connacht-Ulster: Fianna Fail 16%, Fine Gael 35%, Labour 13%, Sinn Fein 20%, Green Party 3%, Others 13% ; Munster: Fianna Fail 17%, Fine Gael 38%, Labour 18%, Sinn Fein 14%, Green Party 4%, Others 9% ; Dublin: Fianna Fail 10%, Fine Gael 29%, Labour 29%, Sinn Fein 11%, Green Party 6%, Others 15%. Based on these regional-level poll figures, my constituency level analysis would estimate the number of seats (nationally) that parties would win based on these levels of regional support to be as follows: Fianna Fail 20, Fine Gael 73, Labour 36, Sinn Fein 17, Green Party 1, Others 19
Read the rest of this entry »
20 Comments | Election, opinion polls | Tagged: "transfer toxicity", Election 2011, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Green Party, independents, Labour Party, opinion polls, Sinn Fein, United Left Alliance | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Editors
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Eoin O'Malley
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