The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (29th January 2012) shows a further dip in support (albeit not a dramatic one) for the government parties, with Sinn Fein’s continued run of good showings in recent polls culminating in the party earning its higghest ever rating in a Red C poll, leaving it at 17%, ahead of Labour and just one percent behind Fianna Fail, whose ratings remain static following a increase in support levels in the December poll. Read the rest of this entry »
Country gone mad changing party preferences? Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (29th January 2012)
January 29, 2012
5 Comments | 
opinion polls | Tagged: constituencies, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, independents, Labour Party, opinion poll, Sinn Fein | 
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Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Fine Gael-Fianna Fail grand coalition the only option?: Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (18th December 2011)
December 18, 2011The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (18th December 2011) points to a more than signficant dip in support for the government parties following the budger, with a notable recovery for Fianna Fail building on a strong showing in the Dublin West by-election and Sinn Fein occupying second place in the party rankings. With support levels and projected seat numbers roughly similar for both the government alliance and the most likely alternative government and both somewhat off the level required to ensure a majority in the Dail – party seat levels would be estimated as follows: Fine Gael 61, Labour 13, Fianna Fail 36, Sinn Fein 33, Green Party 2, Others 21 - the likelihood of a hung Dail would be very strong based on these figures unless Fine Gael and Fianna Fail were willing to enter a coalition government. But the main thing to emerge from this poll is what seemed to be unthinkable only a few months ago – the possibility that Fianna Fail will be in government again after the next general election. Read the rest of this entry »
25 Comments | opinion polls | Tagged: constituencies, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Green Party, independents, Labour Party, opinion poll, Sinn Fein | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
State of Enda? Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (4th December 2011)
December 4, 2011The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (4th December 2011) shows a dip in support (albeit not a dramatic one) for the government parties, with a notable recovery for Fianna Fail building on a strong showing in the Dublin West by-election (and probably also related to Sean Gallagher’s strong campaign for the presidential election). Read the rest of this entry »
4 Comments | opinion polls | Tagged: constituencies, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, independents, Labour Party, opinion poll, Sinn Fein | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Should Fianna Fáil run a presidential candidate?
September 19, 2011By Michael Gallagher
FF has got itself into something of a tangle over the presidential election. Torn between a range of options that seems to proliferate all the time – run its own candidate, facilitate a FF member to run as an independent, facilitate any independent who requires signatures to secure a nomination, allow each of its Oireachtas members to do what they want, or refuse to allow any FF Oireachtas member to assist anyone to secure a nomination – the party seems to have ended up in a situation from which there is no simple way out and, moreover, to have stirred up the first speculation about a leadership heave or a full-scale split into the bargain. Read the rest of this entry »
6 Comments | The Presidency | Tagged: Fianna Fáil, Presidency; Fianna Fáil; election; party organisation, presidential election | Permalink
Posted by Michael Gallagher
Can Fianna Fáil Change to Survive?
July 12, 2011Post by David Farrell (July 12, 2011)
It is not just political systems that need to be reformed from time to time, parties also need to go through a process of renewal if they’re to survive the trials and tribulations of electoral politics. As reported in today’s Irish Times, Fianna Fáil’s parliamentary party met yesterday to have a full and frank discussion about its future and about how it might change and adapt in the light of its recent electoral defeat. This is an entirely understandable move by the party leadership as it seeks to find a way back to electoral success in future elections. Read the rest of this entry »
11 Comments | New party politics | Tagged: Fianna Fáil, party reform | Permalink
Posted by David Farrell
What next for Labour and the Irish party system?
February 28, 2011
Eoin O’Malley (28 February, 2011)
Although the election was a seismic event in the redevelopment of the Irish party system, the decisions made in the next week as to the structure of the government will have a greater long term impact. The decision Labour has to take as to whether to go into government or not seems to have already been taken if we consider the noises made by senior Labour members at the weekend. But if the party were considering more than getting bums on seats in ministerial mercs (or the share of a Prius) then it should pause for thought. Read the rest of this entry »
27 Comments | New party politics, Politics | Tagged: Election 2011, Election 2015, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Labour, Sinn Fein, ULA | Permalink
Posted by Eoin O'Malley
What’s gone wrong for Labour?
February 16, 2011Eoin O’Malley (15 February, 2011)
There’s is some degree of agreement in the opinion polls of all types (different companies, candidate based ballot paper questions and party questions, local polls and national polls) that over the course of the campaign Fine Gael has trended upwards and Labour downwards. As we can see from the Red C first preference vote trends, which is the only properly comparable trend of polls, that where Labour was within touching distance of Fine Gael in October and November (Millward Brown had Labour ahead of Fine Gael in September, but its estimates for Labour are usually above the Red C ones for some reason) since then Fine Gael has pulled away. The closeness of the race last autumn, with Kenny’s unpopularity, presumably gave rise to the ‘Gilmore for Taoiseach’ strategy. Read the rest of this entry »
22 Comments | Election, New party politics, opinion polls | Tagged: Election 2011, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Labour Party | Permalink
Posted by Eoin O'Malley
Parallels between the elections of 1932/33 and 2011
February 10, 2011By Mel Farrell (Irish Research Council for the Humanities and Social Sciences (IRCHSS) scholar, Department of History, NUI Maynooth
Election 2011 carries the potential to realign Irish politics. As such, this electoral contest promises to take its place among the critical elections of Irish history in 1918, 1922 and 1932. Going on the opinion polls, Fianna Fáil, the dominant force of Irish politics since 1932, entered the campaign fighting for its political survival.
Having stabilised in the first week of electioneering at around 16-18% in most polls, it seems as though Fianna Fáil will have a critical mass of deputies in the next Dáil. In that regard, this election seems set to more closely resemble that of 1932 than that which saw Sinn Féin sweep the boards in 1918, obliterating the Irish parliamentary party in the process. In 1932, the outgoing government wasn’t subjected to an electoral meltdown, but arguably never recovered from the defeat. No doubt glad to avoid the fate of the Home Rule party in 1918, should Fianna Fáil today take solace in that which awaited their arch rivals in Cumann na nGaedheal in 1932?
6 Comments | Election, New party politics | Tagged: 2011 general election, Cumann na nGaedheal, Fianna Fáil | Permalink
Posted by Claire McGing
Projections from poll findings into seats
February 7, 2011By Michael Gallagher
In essence there are two ways of trying to convert opinion poll findings regarding voting intentions into seat totals for the political parties. One, employed in the earlier post by Adrian Kavanagh (5 Feb, two posts below this one), is to assume uniform swing across the country; apply this to the party vote shares across each of the 43 constituencies to arrive at new predicted vote shares in each if them; make inferences about what this vote distribution within each constituency would mean for the allocation of seats there; then add up the constituency totals to produce an overall national result. Read the rest of this entry »
Leave a Comment » | New party politics, opinion polls, Politics | Tagged: constituencies, Election 2011, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, General election, Labour, opinion polls, Sinn Fein | Permalink
Posted by Michael Gallagher
Will Micheál Martin make a difference?
January 26, 2011
Eoin O’Malley
Now that Fianna Fáil has chosen Micheál Martin as leader a week before an election campaign, can he make much of an impact at this stage? Most research suggests leaders have a marginal effect. Read the rest of this entry »
11 Comments | Election, opinion polls, Politics | Tagged: Election 2011, Fianna Fáil, Leaders Debates, Leadership, Micheál Martin | Permalink
Posted by Eoin O'Malley
Editors
Matthew Wall
ElaineByrne
Jane Suiter
Liam Weeks
Séin Ó Muineacháin
David Farrell
Eoin O'Malley
Gary Murphy
Michael Gallagher
Theresa Reidy
Adrian Kavanagh
Jennifer Kavanagh
Claire McGing
psaigenderpoliticssg
Ken McDonagh
johnobrennan
