Love’s Labour Not Entirely Lost?: Constituency-level analysis of the Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (17th August 2014)

Adrian Kavanagh, 16th August 2014 

The latest in the series of Behaviour & Attitudes polls has brought good news for the Labour Party after a long period of dismal results in previous such opinion polls. The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll of August 16th 2014, estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll): Fine Gael 24% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 19% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 18% (down 1%), Labour Party 14% (up 7%), Green Party 2% (NC), Independents and Others 20% (down 2%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 31, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 28, Labour Party 21, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 31. Continue reading

Independents take top spot in Irish Polling Indicator

Post by Tom Louwerse (Trinity College, Dublin)

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Independents and smaller parties have seen their electoral support increased over the last two months. They now top the Irish Polling Indicator, which combines all national election polls in to one estimate of party support. Independents now score between 25.7% and 31%, followed by Sinn Féin at 21.5-25.7% and Fine Gael at 20.1%-24.2%. The largest government party has been on a downward slope in the polls since mid-February, while Continue reading

“When the hurly-burly’s done…”: Constituency-level analyses of the post-election polls

Adrian Kavanagh, 12th June 2014 (with subsequent updates)

The local and European elections brought a (probably quite welcome!) respite to the spate of opinion polls that had appeared in the run up to the May 23rd electoral contests, but June 12th saw the publication of one of the first post-elections opinion polls – the Paddy Power-Red C poll of June 12th 2014, which estimates party support levels as follows: Fine Gael 22%, Sinn Fein 22%, Fianna Fail 18%, Labour Party 4%, Green Party 2%, Independents and Others 32%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 32, Fine Gael 40, Sinn Fein 37, Labour 0, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 48. This was preceded by the Irish Independent-Millward Brown poll of June 7th 2014, which estimates party support levels as follows: Sinn Fein 26%, Fine Gael 20%, Fianna Fail 20%, Labour Party 5%, Green Party 2%, Independents and Others 27%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 36, Fine Gael 38, Sinn Fein 43, Labour 0, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 40. The latest in the series of Red C polls, the Sunday Business Post-Red C poll of June 29th 2014, estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 25% (NC), Sinn Fein 22% (up 4%), Fianna Fail 18% (down 3%), Labour Party 7% (down 4%), Independents, Green Party and Others 28% (up 3%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 33, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 34, Labour 1, Independents, Green Party and Others 44.  The latest in the series of Millward-Brown polls, the Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll of August 3rd 2014, estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous Sunday Business Post-Red C poll): Fine Gael 25%, Sinn Fein 25%, Fianna Fail 20%, Labour Party 7%, Green Party 1%, Independents and Others 23%. My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 35, Fine Gael 47, Sinn Fein 42, Labour 2, Green Party 0, Independents and Others 28Continue reading

The Quiet Protest Vote – Intra-party Councillor Replacement in #le14

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Post by Dr. Michael Courtney, TCD

The big stories of this year’s local elections are the collapse of the Labour party vote and the ongoing rise of Sinn Féin. To a large degree, the surge in Sinn Féin’s percentage of the vote and number of councillors is attributed to a protest vote. The narrative goes that those who voted for Fine Gael and Labour in the 2009 Locals and the 2011 General Election are punishing these parties for continuing the programme of austerity and the breaking of several election promises. The voters’ strategy is interpreted to be; to vote for other parties in the local elections to demonstrate their unhappiness with the government’s performance. This type of voting behaviour in ‘second-order’ elections is usually evident in good economic times and bad. Continue reading

Will independents bring ‘real change’?

Posted by Eoin O’Malley, Dublin City University

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Parties are increasingly unpopular. The recently released European Social Survey (wave 6) shows parties are distrusted by 85% of Irish people (compared with parliament and the government distrusted by 75% and 77% respectively).  Ireland isn’t that unusual; Most countries show a large majority lacking trust in parties. Danes, Swedes and Austrian are the most trustful of politics, but even in those places just about a third of respondents claim to trust parties.

This might not matter much. Continue reading

Constituency-level analyses of national opinion polls carried out during 2013: A review.

Adrian Kavanagh, 31st December 2013

During the past year (2013), I carried out constituency-level analyses of thirty four different national opinion polls in order to produce Dail-seat estimates based on those support levels. These analyses involved thirteen Red C (Sunday Business Post-Red C and Paddy Power-Red C) polls, twelve Sunday Independent-Millward Browne polls, four Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI polls and five Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes polls. Averaging the different Dail seat-level estimates for the different political parties and political groupings across these polls produces the following estimate: Fianna Fail 46, Fine Gael 52, Labour Party 11, Sinn Fein 25, Independents and Others 24. But notably different seat-estimates were produced depending on the time of year that these polls were held in, but especially depending on what polling companies were involved in the carrying out of these different polls, as will be illustrated below.

Continue reading

The future is…. Fianna Fáil?

Colm-Keaveney-2-appHere’s a link to an op ed Shaun Bowler and I published in today’s Irish Times that makes use of the 2011 Irish National Election Study (INES) to examine the potential for a new political party in Ireland. The bottom line is that, based at least on this rich source of data, the potential is not great. The group of voters showing greatest inclination for change are those based at the centre who traditionally support Fianna Fáil. Plus ça change…?