By Eoin O’Malley
The latest opinion poll (analysed here) indicates that the Labour party is bearing the brunt of governing whereas Fine Gael and Enda Kenny seem to be enjoying an extended honeymoon with the electorate. This is backed up by the analysis of polcors in Ireland, one of whom reported here that Gilmore was seen as ‘dithering’ and ineffectual in cabinet. reports of Kenny’s performance in cabinet are that he is effective and fair – surprising many. So do small parties always do badly in government, and if so why?
Eoin O’Malley (5 March, 2011)
Yesterday some of us wrote in the Irish Times about what might need to be done in the government’s first week to show it is serious about political reform. One of the suggestions was for using the Seanad route to appoint a minister with relevant experience to what will be the strategically important post of Minister for Foreign Affairs. The whole government formation process will be critical to showing how serious this government is about changing politics and political reform. Who gets what departments and what departments are chosen will determine the focus of the new government, perhaps even more so that the programme for government. Continue reading
Adrian Kavanagh, 21st November 2010
The latest Sunday Business Post/Red C poll figures estimate party support as follows: Fianna Fail 17%, Fine Gael 33%, Labour Party 27%, Sinn Fein 11%, Green Party 3%, Independents/Others 8%, marking a 1% gain for Fine Gael and a 1% loss for Fianna Fail relative to the October 24th poll while Labour support levels remain static. The main gain is made by Sinn Fein, whose support levels increase by 2%. On the basis of these poll figures, my analysis would estimate party seat numbers in the next Dail as follows: Fianna Fail 29, Fine Gael 66, Labour Party 49, Sinn Fein 12, Green Party 0, Independents/Others 10.
Adrian Kavanagh, 5 November 2010
On the basis of the most recent general election results in Donegal South West, this might be expected to be one constituency where Fianna Fail could actually have a realistic chance of winning a by-election (thus becoming the first government party to do so since Noel Treacy won the Galway East by-election in 1982), but a study of local election result trends in the three electoral areas that this Dail constituency is comprised of – Donegal (Town), Glenties and Stranorlar – offers a more sobering portrait for Fianna Fail and offers Fine Gael hope that they could be the party to win this by-election, thus offering prospects of yet another electoral success in western Ireland for the “Kenny Krusade”. Continue reading
by David Farrell (July 1, 2010)
The Fine Gael leader announced his new front bench earlier today. The details are as follows: Continue reading
Adrian Kavanagh (17 June 2010)
The geography of Fine Gael support offers some insight as to why Enda Kenny survived the challenge to his leadership today. The party’s strength in rural, and especially western, parts of the state, relative to its weakness in Dublin, saw high numbers of Fine Gael TDs, MEPs and Senators being elected from these areas, many of whom proved to be Kenny supporters in the leadership contest. Had Fine Gael won more seats in 2007 in the eastern and more urban parts of the state, where the Bruton supporters tended to predominate, the result of the leadership poll could have been different.
Fine Gael support by constituency in 2007 General Election
By Eoin O’Malley (17 June, 2010)
Enda Kenny won today’s confidence motion, it is said by a margin of six votes. So he will be relieved and Richard Bruton disappointed. But might the happiest people as a result of this be Brian Cowen and Eamon Gilmore? Continue reading
by Michael Gallagher (16 June 2010)
If FG asked the PSAI for its opinion on whether it should change its leader, would Irish political science be able to offer any evidence-backed advice? There are (as usual) arguments on both sides.
Someone alternative such as Richard Bruton may be in some sense a ‘better’ leader Continue reading
Today’s Sunday Independent provides some skimpy details of a fresh survey by Quantum research. Unfortunately, they have not provided much if any details, apart from that the sample size was 500 respondents. The main issue that is assessed is what the voters think of likely alternatives to Cowen and Kenny. Continue reading