Do smaller parties always lose in government?

By Eoin O’Malley

The latest opinion poll (analysed here) indicates that the Labour party is bearing the brunt of governing whereas Fine Gael and Enda Kenny seem to be enjoying an extended honeymoon with the electorate. This is backed up by the analysis of polcors in Ireland, one of whom reported here that Gilmore was seen as ‘dithering’ and ineffectual in cabinet.  reports of Kenny’s performance in cabinet are that he is effective and fair – surprising many. So do small parties always do badly in government, and if so why?

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Sunday Business Post/Red C Poll, 19th December

Adrian Kavanagh, 18 December 2010

Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll December 20:  FF 17 (NC), FG 34 (+1), Lab 23 (-4), Greens 2 (-1), SF 14 (+3), Others 10 (+2)

On the basis of these figures, my constituency-level analysis of the poll estimates seat levels as follows: Fianna Fail 27, Fine Gael 66, Labour 46, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 15, Independents 12 (including 5 United Left Alliance seats) Continue reading

Irish Times Ipsos-MRBI opinion poll December 16

Adrian Kavanagh, 15 December 2010

Irish Times Ipsos-MRBI opinion poll December 16:  FF 17 (-7), FG 30 (+6), Lab 25 (-8), Greens 2 (NC), SF 15 (+7), Others 11 (+2)

On the basis of these figures, my constituency-level analysis of the poll estimates seat levels as follows: Fianna Fail 26, Fine Gael 58, Labour 46, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 18,  Others 18 (including 6 United Left Alliance/4 other Left wing candidates). Continue reading

Sunday Business Post/Red C Poll 21 November 2010: Fianna Fail down to 29 seats?

Adrian Kavanagh, 21st November 2010

The latest Sunday Business Post/Red C poll figures estimate party support as follows: Fianna Fail 17%, Fine Gael 33%, Labour Party 27%, Sinn Fein 11%, Green Party 3%, Independents/Others 8%, marking a 1% gain for Fine Gael and a 1% loss for Fianna Fail relative to the October 24th poll while Labour support levels remain static. The main gain is made by Sinn Fein, whose support levels increase by 2%. On the basis of these poll figures, my analysis would estimate party seat numbers in the next Dail as follows: Fianna Fail 29, Fine Gael 66, Labour Party 49, Sinn Fein 12, Green Party 0, Independents/Others 10.

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Donegal South West by election: The numbers…

Adrian Kavanagh, 5 November 2010

On the basis of the most recent general election results in Donegal South West, this might be expected to be one constituency where Fianna Fail could actually have a realistic chance of winning a by-election (thus becoming the first government party to do so since Noel Treacy won the Galway East by-election in 1982), but a study of local election result trends in the three electoral areas that this Dail constituency is comprised of – Donegal (Town), Glenties and Stranorlar – offers a more sobering portrait for Fianna Fail and offers Fine Gael hope that they could be the party to win this by-election, thus offering prospects of yet another electoral success in western Ireland for the “Kenny Krusade”. Continue reading

Irish Times Ispos-MRBI poll (September): Seat estimates

Adrian Kavanagh, 29 September 2010

Irish Times Ipsos-MRBI opinion poll September 30:

FF 24 (+3).

FG 24 (-3),

Lab 33 (+4),

Greens 2 (-2),

SF 8 (-2),

Others 9 (nc)

Core vote (before undecided voters are excluded): Fianna Fáil 19  (+3); Fine Gael 20 (-1); Labour 27 (+5); Sinn Féin 6 (-2); Green Party 2 (-1); Independents/Others 8 (+1); Undecided voters 18 per cent (+5).

Brian Cowen, FF: 19 (+1), Enda Kenny, FG 25 (+1), Eamon Gilmore, Lab 49 (+3), John Gormley, GP 18 (-3),  Gerry Adams, SF 29 (-2).

On those poll figures, my analysis based on calculating constituency estimates of party support estimates the following number of seats for the different parties : Fianna Fail 49, Fine Gael 42, Labour 61, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 6, Indepedents and Other Small Parties 8 Continue reading

Sunday Business Post-Red C produces radically different Dail seat estimates

Adrian Kavanagh, 25 September 2010

The poll figures to be published in tomorrow’s Sunday Business Post are radically different to those in Thursday’s Lansdowne Millward TV3 poll and, as such, produce very different estimates of Dail seats for parties using the method of producing constituency estimates as in previous such analyses. On these poll figures, the analysis estimates that Fine Gael would be in a clear position as the strongest party in Dail Eireann with 60 seats. Fianna Fail, although just one per cent ahead of Labour in the poll, would in seat terms be eight seats clear as the second strongest party in the Dail with 49 seats as against 41 for Labour. This is a much more positive poll for Sinn Fein and on these figures the party would gain two seats in the next election – with three gains in Ulster and one possible loss in Dublin – to leave the party on 6, although with further seat gains in Dublin possible. This is a slightly more positive poll for the Greens, but on these figures the party would still fail to win a seat at the next general election. Fianlly, independents and the other smaller parties could expect to win 10 seats in the Dail based on these poll figures. Continue reading

Millward-Browne Lansdowne TV3 poll – what it might mean in constituency terms

Adrian Kavanagh, 23 September 2010

Today’s Millward-Browne Lansdowne TV3 poll offers a sobering analysis for the government parties, with Fianna Fail support estimated to stand at 22% and Green Party support at 2%. But it perhaps also offers disappointing results for two of the opposition parties; Fine Gael (30%) whose poll position as most popular party is yet again eclipsed by Labour, while Sinn Fein support is seen to drop to 4%. Labour are the big winners, with support levels at 35% – nearly three and a half times their national support level in 2007.  Despite being 5% ahead of Fine Gael in popular support terms, my consituency level analysis suggests that Labour may not win the most Dail seats nonetheless – indeed it suggests both Labour and Fine Gael would almost finish practically in a dead heat, with a few close results in some constituencies probably determining which party would end up with the most seats in Dail Eireann.

UPDATE: MillwardBrown TV3 poll in detail

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