There are many people and organisations to credit for the outcome of the marriage referendum, not least the incredible campaign mounted by the Yes side, as described by Noel Whelan in today’s Irish Times.
A question to ask is whether this referendum would ever have happened but for the huge endorsement this issue received from the Constitutional Convention, which debated this matter in April 2013. Would a socially conservative Fine Gael have been willing to accept its junior coalition partner’s desire for a referendum on a matter that hadn’t been included in the programme for government? Would the issue have attracted quite such a degree of all-party consensus? Continue reading
An ‘average’ of polls (line with 95% uncertainty interval shaded) and individual polls as dots for the marriage referendum
Four polls were published on the marriage equality referendum last weekend. These showed large differences in the expected yes-vote, ranging from 53% to 69%. Given that these polls were taken in roughly the same period, what do such large differences tell us about popular support for the proposal? How big is the decline for a ‘yes’ vote and how narrow will its majority be?
Political Studies Association of Ireland Annual Conference 2015
Gresham Metropole Hotel Cork, 16 – 18 October 2015
The annual conference of the PSAI will take place in Cork over the weekend 16 – 18 October 2015. Paper proposals are invited from all areas of the discipline. A detailed list of themes is included below and is also available on the conference website at http://www.ucc.ie/en/government/psai/ Continue reading
On Friday the Irish will vote on two issues. Both are being sold as reforms, one a social reform, the other a political reform. Both can be said to have come from the the ‘People’ via the Constitutional Convention. If polls are even broadly accurate one will pass comfortably, the other will be easily defeated.
Why will the marriage referendum pass and the proposal to lower the age of eligibility for election to the office of the President be defeated? The major difference is the genesis of the proposals. The marriage referendum is a result of years of campaigning Continue reading
There are now so many red lines laid down during the UK general election that forming a coalition is going to resemble a scene from Mission Impossible. SNP won’t support the Tories, UKIP won’t support Labour, Sinn Féin won’t support (or oppose) anyone,… Most of this is just electioneering. Even the one party that’s keeping options reasonably open – the LibDems – is giving mixed messages probably in the hope it can save a few seats by appealing to Tory or Labour supporters that a vote for them in key marginals could help keep Labour or the Tories out of power.
Labour on the other hand has firmly ruled out ANY deal with the SNP. Again this is electioneering. It’s simultaneously hoping that it can convince Scottish voters that a vote for Labour is the only way to ditch the Tories, and English voters that a vote for Labour won’t damage the Union. Continue reading
Prof Eduardo Silva will deliver the inaugural Maynooth University Visiting Scholar Lecture: “Learning from Latin America: Lessons from the periphery in a time of austerity” on Tuesday, 5th May 2015, with responses from Dr Mary Murphy, Maynooth University Department of Sociology and Dr David Begg, former General Secretary of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions.
The evening begins with a reception in Pugin Hall at 6.00pm, with the lecture commencing at 6.30pm in Renehan Hall. Register for the Silva event here: https://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/research/research-development-office/visiting-scholar-lecture-series Continue reading