The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (29th January 2012) shows a further dip in support (albeit not a dramatic one) for the government parties, with Sinn Fein’s continued run of good showings in recent polls culminating in the party earning its higghest ever rating in a Red C poll, leaving it at 17%, ahead of Labour and just one percent behind Fianna Fail, whose ratings remain static following a increase in support levels in the December poll. Read the rest of this entry »
Country gone mad changing party preferences? Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (29th January 2012)
January 29, 2012
5 Comments | 
opinion polls | Tagged: constituencies, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, independents, Labour Party, opinion poll, Sinn Fein | 
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Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Fine Gael-Fianna Fail grand coalition the only option?: Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (18th December 2011)
December 18, 2011The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (18th December 2011) points to a more than signficant dip in support for the government parties following the budger, with a notable recovery for Fianna Fail building on a strong showing in the Dublin West by-election and Sinn Fein occupying second place in the party rankings. With support levels and projected seat numbers roughly similar for both the government alliance and the most likely alternative government and both somewhat off the level required to ensure a majority in the Dail – party seat levels would be estimated as follows: Fine Gael 61, Labour 13, Fianna Fail 36, Sinn Fein 33, Green Party 2, Others 21 - the likelihood of a hung Dail would be very strong based on these figures unless Fine Gael and Fianna Fail were willing to enter a coalition government. But the main thing to emerge from this poll is what seemed to be unthinkable only a few months ago – the possibility that Fianna Fail will be in government again after the next general election. Read the rest of this entry »
25 Comments | opinion polls | Tagged: constituencies, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Green Party, independents, Labour Party, opinion poll, Sinn Fein | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
State of Enda? Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (4th December 2011)
December 4, 2011The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (4th December 2011) shows a dip in support (albeit not a dramatic one) for the government parties, with a notable recovery for Fianna Fail building on a strong showing in the Dublin West by-election (and probably also related to Sean Gallagher’s strong campaign for the presidential election). Read the rest of this entry »
4 Comments | opinion polls | Tagged: constituencies, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, independents, Labour Party, opinion poll, Sinn Fein | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Gallagher poll lead widens in weekend polls while Sinn Fein and Independents gain in terms of party support
October 25, 2011Adrian Kavanagh, 25th October 2011
The final series of opinion polls at the weekend saw Sean Gallagher maintain, and even widen somewhat, the lead he established over Michael D. Higgins and the other candidates in the previous weekend’s Sunday Business Post-Red C poll, although the sheer momentum he had built up over the previous few weeks has abated somewhat. Read the rest of this entry »
4 Comments | Election, opinion polls, The Presidency | Tagged: by-elections, constituencies, geography of support, opinion polls, Sinn Fein | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Po-Mo pushes Gallagher into significant lead as presidential election contest points to influence of political classes
October 17, 2011Adrian Kavanagh, 17th October 2011
The Sunday Business Post-Red C poll shows momentum for Sean Gallagher continuing and now pushing him well ahead of Michael D. Higgins and other contenders and on these figures he could expect to enjoy a comfortable victory on the final count by more than 200,000 votes. Just as interesting is the degree to which this campaign is opening up, or rather intensifying, questions to do with politicial class divisions that exist within Irish society (rural, urban middle class, urban working class) and impact on parties, voters and various elements of the political commentariat. Read the rest of this entry »
6 Comments | Election, opinion polls, The Presidency | Tagged: geography of support, opinion polls | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
“I’m in!” – Gallagher campaign gathers momentum and Sinn Fein support surging in latest series of opinion polls
October 6, 2011Adrian Kavanagh, 6th-9th October 2011
The two presidential election polls and the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI and Sunday Times-Behaviour and Attitudes polls on party support intentions offers interesting trends. Sean Gallagher has emerged as the surprise package in the presidential election polls and poses a more serious threat to Michael D. Higgins than that which Martin McGuinness and David Norris were posing in last week’s Red C poll. While the gamble of the McGuinness candidature may not be translating into a likely win for Sinn Fein, it could be argued that the gamble is paying off in terms of the huge increase in support registered for the party in the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI and Sunday Times-Behaviour and Attitudes poll, propelling the party past Labour and Fianna Fail into second place. Based on the Ipsos MRBI figures the party will need to take further support off Labour if Sinn Fein is to overtake Labour as the party with the second largest number of seats in Dail Eireann, but the poll figures in the Sunday Times-Behaviour and Attitudes poll suggests that Sinn Fein would exactly do that. Read the rest of this entry »
9 Comments | Election, opinion polls, The Presidency | Tagged: by-elections, constituencies, geography of support, opinion polls, Sinn Fein | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Red C-Sunday Business Post polls (25th September): Transfer patterns suggest Higgins to win with Davis as main challenger
September 25, 2011Adrian Kavanagh, Sunday 25th September 2011
The main message coming from the two Red C-Sunday Business Post opinion polls, published on 25th September, is that vote transfers would see Michael D Higgins win the presidency despite trailing David Norris in terms of first preference votes. In all, the polls offer mixed messages for the government parties, some cold comfort for Fianna Fáil in the wake of the previous week’s disastrous Millward Brown Lansdowne poll figures for that party, and very good news for Sinn Féin and the Others grouping. Transfer figures provided with the presidential election poll suggest that, in order to go on to win the contest, Davis Norris would need to almost ten percent ahead of Michael D Higgins on the first count, while Martin McGuinness would need to be eight percent ahead. Read the rest of this entry »
3 Comments | Election, opinion polls, The Presidency | Tagged: constituencies, opinion polls, Sinn Fein | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Taxi for Fianna Fail? Sunday Independent-Millward Brown Lansdowne poll 18th September 2011
September 18, 2011The Sunday Independent-Millward Brown Lansdowne poll offers a somewhat different picture of the political landscape to the Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes poll of 4th September. While it continues the trend of strong poll showings by Fine Gael, this poll sees Labour’s standings back at the levels enjoyed by the party earlier in the year and marks a stark contrast to the 12% support level for that party in the Sunday Times poll. The most dramatic figure however is the exceptionally low 10% rating for Fianna Fail, meaning that if support levels for all parties and groupings were exactly replicated in a general election contest that Fianna Fail would just about have enough TDs left to fill a taxi. Read the rest of this entry »
5 Comments | Election, opinion polls, Uncategorized | Tagged: constituencies, opinion poll | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
Do smaller parties always lose in government?
September 6, 2011By Eoin O’Malley
The latest opinion poll (analysed here) indicates that the Labour party is bearing the brunt of governing whereas Fine Gael and Enda Kenny seem to be enjoying an extended honeymoon with the electorate. This is backed up by the analysis of polcors in Ireland, one of whom reported here that Gilmore was seen as ‘dithering’ and ineffectual in cabinet. reports of Kenny’s performance in cabinet are that he is effective and fair – surprising many. So do small parties always do badly in government, and if so why?
5 Comments | opinion polls, Politics | Tagged: Eamon Gilmore, Enda Kenny, Fine Gael, Labour, small parties | Permalink
Posted by Eoin O'Malley
Early September polls: Presidential election victory for Higgins and potential for a Fine Gael landslide?
September 4, 2011Adrian Kavanagh, 4th September 2011
The Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes opinion poll, published on 4th September offers varying fortunes for the two government parties, amounting to very good news for Fine Gael but dismal fortunes for Labour. My constituency level analysis suggest Fine Gael would win a landslide victory based on these figures if they transpired in an election and would easily win enough seats to form a single party government, with many of their seat gains to be at the expense of their coalition partners, although Labour would also be predicted to lose seats to Sinn Fein. Better news is offered to Labour by the Red C-Paddy Power presidential election poll however, with my analysis suggesting that Michael D Higgins would win the election based on these figures, edging out Gay Mitchell on the final count by a margin of almost two hundred thousand votes.
7 Comments | Election, opinion polls, The Presidency | Tagged: Election 2011, Fine Gael, Labour Party, opinion poll, opinion polls, Sinn Fein | Permalink
Posted by Adrian Kavanagh
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