By Michael Gallagher
Recall of elected representatives occasionally surfaces in discussions of political reform, and has been given topicality by the adverse publicity surrounding the Wexford TD Mick Wallace and his tax affairs. It also arose last month (June 2012) in the US state of Wisconsin, where attempts, ultimately unsuccessful, by local Democrats to pull the plug on the term of Republican governor Scott Walker got wide publicity outside the USA in this presidential election year.
The basic idea is that an elected representative is subject to ‘recall’ by his or her voters. Typically, a certain number of signatures on a petition are required, and if this number is reached a referendum on the incumbent’s continuation in office takes place. Continue reading
Post by David Farrell (July 11 2011)
A re-reading of the Coalition Government’s Programme for Government is timely. It’s worth taking stock of the political reform proposals that have been implemented, those that are on going, and those that are (firmly) promised. There has been some undoubted progress, but a lot – a lot – still needs to be done. Continue reading
It has been reported that a Red C poll to be published in tomorrow’s Irish Sun estimates party support levels as follows: Fianna Fail 13%. Fine Gael 32%, Labour 24%, Green Party 3%, Sinn Fein 16%, Independents/Others 11%. Bad and all as these figures are for Fianna Fail, my constituency level analysis of the poll suggests that on those figures Fianna Fail support would have dropped below a level at which the extent of seat losses are highly accelerated and in which the party faces the dire prospect of returning to the next Dail with seat figures in the single numbers. Seats won by the parties based on those figures are estimated as follows: Fianna Fail 12. Fine Gael 67, Labour 48, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 24, Independents/Others 15. These figures would also raise the possibility of a left-leaning coalition government especially as ten of the seats in the Independents and Others category would be assigned to left wing candidates such as Seamus Healy, Catherine Murphy, Joe Higgins and Richard Boyd Barrett.
Fianna Fail experienced a significant loss in support in the recent Donegal South West by-election relative to their support level in that constituency, with their support down by 12,792 votes and percentage share of the vote down by 29.2%. But the recent history of the party has shown a tendency for the party to poll poorly in by elections only for party support levels to recover in a subsequent general election. Continue reading
Pearse Doherty support by ED in Donegal South West, 2007 General Election
Adrian Kavanagh, 17 November 2010
Red C opinion poll figures for the Donegal South West by-election and the subsequent general election in that constituency provide ill tidings for Fianna Fail but offer very good news for Sinn Fein and Labour in that constituency. But past electoral trends suggest that geographical factors/local voting trends will also need to be taken account of here. This post will look especially at geographical voting trends for the last general election in this constituency, based on an analysis and mapping of tally figures for that election. It suggests that the final result can be predicted based on early tallies by knowing the geography of voting in this constituency. Continue reading
Adrian Kavanagh, 5 November 2010
On the basis of the most recent general election results in Donegal South West, this might be expected to be one constituency where Fianna Fail could actually have a realistic chance of winning a by-election (thus becoming the first government party to do so since Noel Treacy won the Galway East by-election in 1982), but a study of local election result trends in the three electoral areas that this Dail constituency is comprised of – Donegal (Town), Glenties and Stranorlar – offers a more sobering portrait for Fianna Fail and offers Fine Gael hope that they could be the party to win this by-election, thus offering prospects of yet another electoral success in western Ireland for the “Kenny Krusade”. Continue reading
By Matt Wall
The policy of indefinite delay of outstanding by-elections that has been pursued by the current government has lead to a withering assessment by Mr. Justice Nicholas Kearns; the report in today’s Irish Independent reproduces the most damning statements from the judgment, which are as follows: