Comments on: Recent polls point towards Fianna Fail recovery (October/Early November 2012)

By: Fianna Fail slowly clamber back into the southern game… « Slugger O'Toole

Wed, 21 Nov 2012 13:45:02 +0000

[...] I missed the latest Behaviours and Attitudes poll for the Sunday Times at the weekend, but to compensate, here’s Adrian Cavanagh’s tracking post which shows a clear movement in FF’s poll rating: [...]

By: tomasoflatharta

tomasoflatharta — Sun, 18 Nov 2012 14:54:45 +0000

A New Opinion Poll Today :
“the adjusted figures show: FG 30 per cent, FF 22 per cent, Labour 12 per cent, SF 14 per cent, GP 3 per cent and Independents and others 19 per cent.

The change from the last poll in September is FF + 6%, FG -1%, LP -2%, SF -4%, GP +1% and Independents/Others NC.

Hard to know what to make of it. What would the factors be that would bounce FFs vote upwards like that?

You can download a PDF of the report from

http://www.banda.ie/assets/files/pdf/Sunday%20Times%20November%20full%20report.pdf

Source :

http://cedarlounge.wordpress.com/2012/11/18/latest-sunday-times-poll/

I await with interest Adrian’s usual well-balanced analysis.

A quick impression is that FG and Labour would not command a Dáil Majority if these were real Genearal Election results.

By: Desmond FitzGerald

Desmond FitzGerald — Fri, 19 Oct 2012 20:09:50 +0000

What utter tosh. We don’t know how many seats there will be or who’ll be standing where.

But as we now see, no matter who is in government it doesn’t matter. So why not Sinn Fein, as for all their talk, as soon as they get in they’ll be the same.

Yet again I’m left asking why FF is listed first? A proper pollster would alter the layout in line with the facts, which are that FG is the largest party at national, local and EU level so doesn’t the decision of the people to put it in that place deserve some respect?

The poll also doesn’t answer the actual question that remains in flux which is how long before Fianna Fáil is the junior partner in a government with Fine Gael and which would be more important that it was in government with FG or that it was in government again?

By: paulthunt

paulthunt — Fri, 19 Oct 2012 13:00:04 +0000

I think I understand Paul Culloty’s and Robert Browne’s wish and desire to see the emergence of a new party with a clear economic and social vision, but I fear we’re stuck with the basic configuration we’ve got. So we’re left with (a) FG taking a bit of a hammering, Labour taking a big hammering, but both mustering enough seats to secure a bare majority in a smaller Dail (seems to be Adrian Kavanagh’s take on the recent opinion poll), or (b) both FG and Labour taking an even bigger hammering that leaves them short of a majority. We’re then in to (b)(i) – FG and Labour form a minority government or (b)(ii) – FG ditches Labour and makes a play for FF support either inside or outside of government or (b)(iii) – FF spurns FG (FG is assumed to be the biggest party in all cases and has first cut at forming a government) and comes to some arrangement with SF and the motley independent/hard-left crew.

It doesn’t really matter who gets their feet under the cabinet table, Official Ireland will still be sitting pretty – though it may undergo some limited mutation depending on the political complexion of those seated at the cabinet table. The vast majority of citizens will experience the same crap governance and treatment irrespective of who’s around the cabinet table – i.e., unless they get very cross with the shills in Official Ireland

By: Robert Browne

Robert Browne — Thu, 18 Oct 2012 20:00:06 +0000

I find myself in agreement with Paul Culloty, I have a gut feeling that a party with clear objectives and vision can do very well in the next an election using modern technology to shake up the deplorable Rip Van Winkle, state of Irish politics. The middle classes too are so disillusioned with tweedle dee and tweedle dum. It stands to reason that this is a major factor for the apparent dead cat bounce that FF have got. Of course this is like a team playing a warm up game two to three years before they are due to compete. Still, they must be laughing to themselves, with Martin even opposing the property tax which they signed for. How logically cynical from a FF perspective is that? You cannot teach an old dog new tricks?

By: Paddy Healy

Paddy Healy — Thu, 18 Oct 2012 15:40:41 +0000

Poll Confirms that Labour is the Big Loser
The poll figures published to-day,18/10/2012, in Irish Times is being compared by the polling company to the figures from a similar poll taken in April during the Fiscal Compact Referendum campaign
As usual the poll is subject to a probable error of + or – 3% based on a sample of approximately 1000 persons polled.
Conclusions drawn from breakdowns by province or social class are much more unreliable. For example a typical sample of 300 is subject to a probable error of almost +or-6%.
In addition to the party scores the poll shows:
Don’t know/undecided 33% up 5 points.
Satisfied with Government 21% down 6 points (this level of dissatisfaction is exceeded only by that of Fianna Fail before the last General election)
These figures are as significant as the party scores.
To understand the overall change in public opinion, it is necessary to compare the poll figures with the outcome of the last General Election
GENERAL Election Figures FG 36.1%, Lab 19.4%, FF 17.4% ,SF 9.9% ,Green 1.8%, Others 15.4%
To-days Poll compared to General Election Figures : FG 31% down 5, FF 21% up 3.6,Labour 12% down 7.4, Sinn Fein 20% up 10.1, Green 2.0 up 0.2, Others 14% down 1.4
Most changes since the General Election are now greater than the probable error of 3%. This enables firmer conclusions to be drawn.
Drop in Labour Support
Even in the relatively prosperous late nineties the Labour Party suffered a large setback after being in coalition with Fianna Fail and Fine Gael.
This poll confirms the indication in the April poll that the setback will be even greater on this occasion.
Taking the probable error of 3% into account the figure for the Labour Party of 12% to-day and 10% last May are essentially the same. But there is a large real drop of 7.4% since the General Election. Such an outcome in a General election would lead to a loss of large numbers of Labour seats. The Labour Party share of the vote in the 2009 Local Elections was 14.2%. There are two austerity budgets before the next local elections. A further decline in the Labour vote following such budgets would endanger the seats of many Labour Councillors. It must be remembered that even a small decline in popular support can give rise to a large loss of seats particularly for parties below 20% of the vote. The strong showing of Sinn Féin and Others is a particular threat to Labour.
As pointed out above breakdowns of the poll by province (EU Constituency) or social class are subject to large probable errors. Nevertheless they are of some interest.
According to Damiam Loscher of IPSOS/MRBI: “Interestingly, Labour now draws more support from the professional classes (17 per cent amongst ABs) than any other socio-economic group. It seems working-class voters have drifted in large numbers to Sinn Féin, outside Dublin in particular” ( Damien Loscher of IPSOS/MRBI, Irish Times Oct 18,2012) and according to Stephen Collins in the same edition “The party(Labour) is still getting a very respectable 19 per cent in Dublin, which is easily its strongest region. The rest of Leinster comes next on 12 per cent, but the party’s vote in Munster is just 9 per cent while it is only 3 per cent in Connacht Ulster.” (Stephen Collins, Irish Times Oct 18,2012)
The 19% for Labour, however “respectable”, in Dublin is still well down on the General Election result.
If these regional indications turned out to be true, Labour would face a severe loss of seats in the next local and European elections particularly but not only in Munster. The Munster figure is approximately half the percentage of the vote secured by the Labour Party candidate in the European Election of 2009 which took place on the same day as the local elections.
The very high level of dissatisfaction with government is likely to result in severely reduced transfers to Labour from independents and smaller parties, particularly but not only, in late counts.
Fianna Fáil Recovery?
Fianna Fáil recovery is greatly exaggerated by conservative commentators. The Fianna Fáil poll rating is now just 3.6% above its General Election performance (the probable error is 3%!!). For a party now in opposition this is a very modest improvement. Conservative commentators have a vested interest in promoting a conservative alternative to the government. However, it is true as pointed out by Adrian Kavanagh, that a small increase in voting percentage would give Fianna Fáil a significant increase in seats won. But there is no indication from the poll that it will recover its past strength.
Sinn Féin –Strong Showing
Despite the reduction of 4% since the May poll, Sinn Féin has doubled its vote since the General Election. Sinn Féin was the most prominent party in opposing the Fiscal Compact in May. The small reduction is not unexpected in this context. A party which nears or exceeds 20% in a general election gets a major extra seat bonus. 20% is equivalent to the quota in a four seat constituency.
Stephen Collins points out: “The slide has been biggest in Dublin where it has dropped eight points(since April P.H.) and is now behind Labour and tied with Fianna Fáil(on 15% P.H.).The bedrock of the party’s support is still the poorest DE social category where it is on 31 per cent but Fianna Fáil is now making inroads among this group.”(Irish Times Oct 18,2012).
As Sinn Féin support is strongest in the poorest areas of the capital, it is probable that the 15% figure would be significantly increased by an actual election campaign which could garner extra votes from the “don’t know” or undecided category.
OTHERS
Particular caution is necessary in comparing the showing of “others” in an opinion poll as opposed to a General Election. There are many local and single issue candidates on the ballot paper in a General Election. The vast majority of these have no possibility of election but they inflate the figure for others in the overall national outcome. This is not a factor in opinion polls. The figure of 14% in to-days poll for “others” is in fact very high historically though down 1 since last April.
Fine Gael
Though the drop of 5% since the General Election is significant, the Fine Gael vote is holding up in general.
Again according to Stephen Collins to-day “Among the best-off AB voters and the middle-class C1 voters, Fine Gael is easily the biggest party.”
It is probable that all the conservative forces in society are congregating around the main conservative party—big farmers, big business, wealthy self-employed professionals, large asset holders etc.
In general the poll shows continued tendency to political polarisation—Sinn Féin and the left at one pole and Fine Gael and the political right at the other. This is usual in deep political and economic crises.
However, the wealthy have a clear leadership in Fine Gael though formations further to the right may yet emerge. But the poor and those on middle incomes have no effective and firm leadership. Sinn Féin has recently failed to veto Tory social welfare cuts at Stormont “because we are not interested in creating a crisis in the Executive”. Would Sinn Féin veto social welfare cuts if they were part of a coalition in Dublin?
Paddy Healy

By: John Burke

John Burke — Thu, 18 Oct 2012 12:53:14 +0000

Sorry meant to say: “Others” support in Clare…….

By: John Burke

John Burke — Thu, 18 Oct 2012 12:52:33 +0000

“Others” support artificially high last time out due to presence of James Breen as a candidate. He has since categorically ruled out another run for the Dáil.

By: Paul Culloty

Paul Culloty — Thu, 18 Oct 2012 12:37:09 +0000

The dearth of genuine political alternatives is highlighted by the fact that voters are already even remotely contemplating the rehabilitation of FF. With 33% of core voters reportedly undecided, any new political party with a clear economic and social vision could realistically achieve power.