The Silly Season Is Over: Analysis of the Sunday Business Post-Red C poll (23rd September 2012)

Adrian Kavanagh, 22nd September 2012

The first Sunday Business Post-Red C (23rd September) poll following the summer recess points towards a gain in Sinn Fein support and a slight decline in support levels for Labour and the Independents and Others grouping.  The poll puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings as follows: Fine Gael 32% (NC), Labour 14% (down 1%), Fianna Fail 18% (NC), Sinn Fein 18% (up 2%), Green Party, Independents and Others 18% (down 1%). This analysis is similar to previous posts which have applied a constituency level analysis (although with these using the constituency units used for the 2011 General Election) based on assigning seats on the basis of constituency support estimates and simply using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats, while also taking account of the factors of vote transfers and vote splitting/management (based on vote transfer/management patterns observed in the February 2011 election). Based on such an analysis and using the new constituency units (as defined in the 2012 Constituency Commission report) – the new constituencies which will be used for the next general election (assuming an election is not called in the following months before the Electoral Act putting the new constituency configuration into effect) – this estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fine Gael 66, Labour 20, Fianna Fail 27, Sinn Fein 22, Green Party, Independents and Others 23.  Continue reading

Some thoughts on ‘Inside the department’ – posted by Matt Wall

A link here to the RTE Player’s version of ‘Inside the Department’, a documentary that provides some interesting insights into the realities of governance in today’s Ireland. Among other things, it documents the difficulty of leading a department that you have verbally eviscerated in opposition (“malevolently dysfunctional” is a particularly good catchphrase).

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