Both above and below the Waterline: Varying results for Fine Gael-Labour coalition in Sunday Business Post-Red C (26 May) and Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll figures

Adrian Kavanagh, 13th-18th-26th-27th-29th May 2012

Three polls published over the weekend before the European Treaty referendum have produced rather mixed results for the government parties. A constituency level analysis of support based on the latest Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll estimates that the government parties would not win a sufficient level of seats to maintain a majority in the Dail if these support figures were replicated in a general election under the current constituency boundary arrangements, with party seat numbers estimated as: Fianna Fail 28, Fine Gael 65, Labour 14, Sinn Fein 36, Green Party 0,Independents, United Left Alliance and Other 23.  A constituency level analysis of support based on the latest Sunday Business Post-Red C poll, published a day ahead of the Ipsos-MRBI poll, estimates that the government parties would still muster a sufficient level of seats based on these reported support levels to maintain a majority in the Dail, despite the drop in support relative to the general election with party seat levels estimated as: Fianna Fail 29, Fine Gael 63, Labour 22, Sinn Fein 29, Independents, Green Party, United Left Alliance and Other 23.  A constituency level analysis of support based on the Sunday Independent/Millward Brown poll, published on the same day as the Red C poll, estimates that the government parties would win enough seats to enjoy a reduced, yet still comfortable, majority in the Dail if these support figures were replicated in a general election under the current constituency boundary arrangements, with party seat numbers estimated as: Fianna Fail 26, Fine Gael 74, Labour 17, Sinn Fein 31, Green Party 0,Independents, United Left Alliance and Other 19  A series of polls held in the middle of May had offered dispiriting news for the government parties, with these all pointing to a loss of popularity for Labour and Fine Gael and especially in relation to those party’s results in the 2011 election. But the results of the two Red C polls had offered the government parties most concern, with these constituency-level analyses of the figures in these polls suggesting that a Fine Gael-Labour coalition would struggle to muster a sufficient number of Dail seats between the two parties to command a clear majority. In the case of the latest series of party support polls it is the Red C poll that offers most encouragement to the government parties, but particularly Labour, whose support is estimated to be five percentage points higher in this poll than in the Ipsos-MRBI poll. Continue reading

Announcement of a Claiming Our Future event

COF IDEAS – REINVENTING OUR DEMOCRACY
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Individuals and organizations from the full breadth of civil society will explore new ideas on democracy and share their thinking with each other on how to reinvent our democracy. Register now and join the discussion in Croke Park.
This debate is urgent as economic crisis deepens the fault lines in our already flawed democracy.
Distrust in our local democracy is evident in the refusal to pay the household charge. The power of our national government is subservient to international financial institutions and markets. A democratic deficit is apparent in the negotiation and content of the new European fiscal compact treaty.
Funding cuts to community groups have diminished democracy by limiting their capacity to articulate the interests of those living in poverty and inequality. The limited agenda proposed for the Constitutional Convention exposes the lack of energy in our democracy.
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